colafitte said:
I think maybe Nintendo will go too big in Q3 with 11M, and because of some overshipping Q2 will be probably under 3M. Or maybe this will ship 10M and more than 3M later, but yes, i expect one way or another around 18-19M shipped consoles FY year too. And predicting the future, I expect a flat year for Switch next year and after that a quick decline because of lack of 3rd party support and next gen consoles. Nintendo consoles tend to have their best year in its 2nd or 3rd year because their maginficent 1st party support and after that they suffer because of lack of 3rd party support and because they need years to make sequels for their big games. Switch won't become the next Wii or DS saleswise, but it will achieve around 80M and with an Online paid service this time, alongside their succesful 1st party lineup, Nintendo probably will be happier than ever. |
We will see, I dont think that next gen will effect to much on Switch support, even now most of Switch 3rd party support is made most from A-AA games, late ports, last gens ports and Indies, on other hand Switch is getting incrased that kind of support, so next year I expecting even more 3rd party support not less. Talking about Nintendo support, next year we have Animal Crossing and Pokemon for now, in 2020. we could have new 3D Mario, Mario Maker 2, new 3D Zelda...talking about general support, I think worst time pass for Switch in any case, things can be only better.
80m is like bare minimum that Switch will do LT, Wii numbers are realistically achievable. I mean they will be at around 37m after two first years on market, and that's without price cut or any kind of revision. Dont forget, Nintendo said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 6 years, and that means multiply revisons and strong support (from Nintendo at least).
Essay Pro