colafitte said:
I see more Switch as the succesor of 3DS than the Wii, saleswise i mean. Wii in its first 25 months shipped around 45M already and the next 12 months were the biggest home consoles sales we ever seen with another 25M shipped. By this time next year Wii will probably be ahead by more than 15M consoles shipped and after that Wii shipped another 20M the next year.... Switch won't match the pace of the Wii and depite being able to survive more time than Wii (maybe), it still won't be able to catch up in the end. 100M sold is a lot, it requires more than 2 or 3 years of absolute dominance, and Switch have yet to prove that in one year, because i don't see Switch doing better than this year in 2 o 3 years and this year will sell around 18M. 80M is still an enormous success for a primarly only Nintendo games focused console and is still a more sensible prediction than expecting 100m sales.... Edit: and by the way, by 3rd party support, i mean triple AAA 3rd party support, the likes from Activision, EA, Ubisoft, etc....Ubisoft just announced that Switch only accounted for 3% of the sales of the year, and Ubisoft is the one of them that support more the Switch. There's a limit to ported games from previous gens an audience can support too. I think 3rd party support will grow worse, like with every Nintendo home console.... |
But thats main diffrenence, Nintendo wants Switch to have life span (I dont talk about sales) more like 3DS, not like Wii. Wii had first 4 years very strong and after than Nintendo just stop supporting and they start focusing on 3DS and Wii U, Switch will probably have similar trajection like 3DS through years with longer life span but with much stronger sales (best 3DS years was like 14-15m, and even without this year that will be 18-20 m Switch is tracking ahead of 3DS). Wii will be stronger than Switch first 3-4 years in any case, but Switchs chance is after those first 3-4 years. Nintendo said they ultimate goal is Switch to be device per person instead of device per household, but also that price point still inst there.
It will be very easy for Switch to have much longer life span than Wii, Switch will be more like 3DS with multiple revisions and different price points on market. Also dont be sure that this year they will ship 18m, 18m is probably minimum, they have good chanche hitting hole 20m. Dont forget, Switch still has launch price point and only one revison, its not hard imagine that for instance next year with Pokemon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing, price cut and revision sell more than 20m. Also Switch will with this second year will track well ahead of 3DS (around 5m probably), and thats still with launch price point and one revision, while 3DS in that point had already huge price cut and one revision. Also onother plus taht Switch will have vs 3DS is that Switch will have all Nintendo IPs (home console and handheld one). With all that on mind and point that will end up around 75m LT, 80m is bare minimum that Switch will do.
If Switch or Wii for instance anuthing proved, is that they dont need strong support of AAA to have great succes. Of Course that Ubu had only 3% on Switch when they didn't release not single of their biggest games that actually bring most revenue for them. Actually that's crucial, Switch is not just home console, point thats hybrid in same time, makes so intresting for brings plenty of 3rd party support that are apering for first time or after 20 years on Nintendo platform, for instance you can bet one of main reasons why games like Diablo 3 or CIV6 are released on Switch is full handheld play mode. Also worth mentione that most Japanese Vita/3DS developers massively migrating to Switch, there is no week we dont have at least one or two Japanese announcement.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 22 November 2018
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