POLL ! 2018 Q2 Nintendo prediction

AngryLittleAlchemist

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 29 October 2018

Damn. I haven't really been keeping up at all since the end of last year, despite being really interested that year.

It seems like 20 mil is almost impossible ...

zorg1000

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zorg1000 on 29 October 2018

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Damn. I haven't really been keeping up at all since the end of last year, despite being really interested that year.

It seems like 20 mil is almost impossible ...

I'm not going to say impossible quite yet but it will likely need a record breaking holiday to make it, I'm thinking 18 million is more likely which is still a great result.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 29 October 2018

zorg1000 said:

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Damn. I haven't really been keeping up at all since the end of last year, despite being really interested that year.

It seems like 20 mil is almost impossible ...

I'm not going to say impossible quite yet but it will likely need a record breaking holiday to make it, I'm thinking 18 million is more likely which is still a great result.

Yeah, thats about PS4 2nd year right?

zorg1000

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zorg1000 on 29 October 2018

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

zorg1000 said:

I'm not going to say impossible quite yet but it will likely need a record breaking holiday to make it, I'm thinking 18 million is more likely which is still a great result.

Yeah, thats about PS4 2nd year right?

Yep, it was 17.7m for its second full fiscal year.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

thismeintiel

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thismeintiel on 29 October 2018

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Barkley said:

The highest Q3 shipments for the Wii was 11.31m in 2009. So even if the Switch matched the Wii at it's peak... they'd still need to ship 6.8m in Q2+Q4 combined. It seems so unlikely.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3m
Q3 - 11.3m
Q4 - 3.8m

That's how they'd reach 20m, but I don't see them matching the Wii's peak holiday and even if they did I don't see them shipping that many in Q2/Q4. If Nintendo stick to the 20m forecast after they announce Q2 shipments I'd be very surprised.

I agree. Nintendo is doing better than I thought they would, but they are still going to fall a few million short of their forecast. And that quarter the Wii shipped 11.31m was when they released the first 2D Mario game on a home console in about 20 years. Smash Bros is good, but it isn't 2D Mario good. It's not going to get Switch to sell 11m+ for Q3.

Agree, as well. There's no way Switch is hitting 11M+ unless Nintendo drops the price to $199 for Black Friday. That's definitely not happening. My guess is Q4 shipments will be more like 9M, with FY totals ending up at 17M-18M.

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zorg1000 on 29 October 2018

thismeintiel said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree. Nintendo is doing better than I thought they would, but they are still going to fall a few million short of their forecast. And that quarter the Wii shipped 11.31m was when they released the first 2D Mario game on a home console in about 20 years. Smash Bros is good, but it isn't 2D Mario good. It's not going to get Switch to sell 11m+ for Q3.

Agree, as well. There's no way Switch is hitting 11M+ unless Nintendo drops the price to $199 for Black Friday. That's definitely not happening. My guess is Q4 shipments will be more like 9M, with FY totals ending up at 17M-18M.

With the amount of bundles they have this holiday, they might just try to flood the retail channels.

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thismeintiel on 29 October 2018

zorg1000 said:

thismeintiel said:

Agree, as well. There's no way Switch is hitting 11M+ unless Nintendo drops the price to $199 for Black Friday. That's definitely not happening. My guess is Q4 shipments will be more like 9M, with FY totals ending up at 17M-18M.

With the amount of bundles they have this holiday, they might just try to flood the retail channels.

Doubt retail chains are going to take that much stock if Q2 sales aren't up massively YOY or Nintendo isn't doing a price cut. Even if they were successful in stuffing the channels for Q3, that just means that Q4 shipments are going to be very low, like 1M-1.5M, which would still cause them to miss their 20M goal by ~2M-3M.