POLL ! 2018 Q2 Nintendo prediction

[thismeintiel]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Barkley said:

The highest Q3 shipments for the Wii was 11.31m in 2009. So even if the Switch matched the Wii at it's peak... they'd still need to ship 6.8m in Q2+Q4 combined. It seems so unlikely.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3m
Q3 - 11.3m
Q4 - 3.8m

That's how they'd reach 20m, but I don't see them matching the Wii's peak holiday and even if they did I don't see them shipping that many in Q2/Q4. If Nintendo stick to the 20m forecast after they announce Q2 shipments I'd be very surprised.

I agree.  Nintendo is doing better than I thought they would, but they are still going to fall a few million short of their forecast.  And that quarter the Wii shipped 11.31m was when they released the first 2D Mario game on a home console in about 20 years.  Smash Bros is good, but it isn't 2D Mario good.  It's not going to get Switch to sell 11m+ for Q3.

Agree, as well.  There's no way Switch is hitting 11M+ unless Nintendo drops the price to $199 for Black Friday.  That's definitely not happening.  My guess is Q4 shipments will be more like 9M, with FY totals ending up at 17M-18M.