I think it will be really close to 2.5m. Not sure if it will be above or below this. Somewhere in the 2.3 - 2.7m.

I could bet a lot for a Q4 stronger than Q2.

There was nothing huge on Q2 except OCTOPATH...But this Q4 will be after SMASH/Pokemon, + a few good titles are to be expected on Q4.

October 30.

Guess they were ok to not give Sakurai, a notorious workaholic, too much crunch time? Don’t want a RDR2-like incident I guess.

Again, this is also taking Sakurai into consideration. He wants this game as close to completion as it can be and if requires a little more time that it can’t be ready for packaging on Black Friday, then so be it.

Or maybe they’re confident enough in December because December is usually their biggest month of the year.

I think they could do it. I've said it before, but the only way I can see it happening is if Animal Crossing launches in March. Give it one final push before the fiscal year ends.

About 730k compared to 740k in the same period last year.

2M

I can see this being another quarter with soft hardware shipments, especially versus the kinds of numbers Nintendo need to be shifting in order to hit that 20 million target.

I'm going to say 2.5 million - up quarter over quarter, down year over year. I expect Nintendo might revise their estimates down ahead of the holiday season, too; perhaps to 18 million.

I'd expect a very strong Q3 - ~10 million units, followed by a strong Q4, which will be riding on the momentum of Smash and Pokemon, as well as having Mario Bros U DX launching in January - so ~ 3.5 million for Q4.

The highest Q3 shipments for the Wii was 11.31m in 2009. So even if the Switch matched the Wii at it's peak... they'd still need to ship 6.8m in Q2+Q4 combined. It seems so unlikely.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3m
Q3 - 11.3m
Q4 - 3.8m

That's how they'd reach 20m, but I don't see them matching the Wii's peak holiday and even if they did I don't see them shipping that many in Q2/Q4. If Nintendo stick to the 20m forecast after they announce Q2 shipments I'd be very surprised.

I agree.  Nintendo is doing better than I thought they would, but they are still going to fall a few million short of their forecast.  And that quarter the Wii shipped 11.31m was when they released the first 2D Mario game on a home console in about 20 years.  Smash Bros is good, but it isn't 2D Mario good.  It's not going to get Switch to sell 11m+ for Q3.