Smash Bros. will easily be at least 15m+ selling game LT, it will sell hole Switch life and it will have crazy legs hole Switch life span because it will be one must having Switch games similar like MK8D, Zelda BotW and Mario Odyssey are currently. Who know where exactly LT Smash Ultimate will land, but I can bet that in worst case will hit at least 15m.

Yep, it is. Just like Zelda was a 5m~8m brand, but Zelda BotW is already over 10m just a year and a half after release. Same for Splatoon 2, which surpassed the original on the first year, or Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and so on. This is one of the reasons I think the series will grow on Switch: almost everything is growing, and some games are reaching never seen before hights. I mean, Odyssey shipped 9m in a quarter when most 3D Marios end up selling around 10m. Besides, Switch's audience seems more connected to Nintendo games than never, not to mention they're all having awesome legs. Hype is also through the roof and the internet seems to like it a lot.

There are even more reasons, but these are the main ones.

16m is your LT prediction for Smash? Out of curiosity: How much do you think Nintendo will ship on its first month?

Just look at any Switch game that's out there right now. 

As of June 30th, 2018:

Super Mario Odyssey shipped 11.17 million copies in 246 days (or roughly 8 months), 3D Mario games generally only sell around the 11-12 million mark in their entire life. 

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild shipped 9.32 million copies, making it the single highest selling Zelda sku ever, and only a few million away from beating Ocarina of Time's N64 + 3DS sales (which it's more than likely done by now as of writing this, and if it is hasn't, it definitely will by the end of this year). This is only including the Switch version. 

The thing is it's not just extremely innovative or re-imagined franchises either ... something like Splatoon 2 has already sold %140 what Splatoon sold in it's entire life. Yes, it still has some novelty going for it, and obviously the Wii U had a very small install base (which usually doesn't mean much but certainly capped games like Splatoon). However ... the point is that the consistency is there. 

Xenoblade sold better than the past games in just a couple of months, Kirby has had some rejuvenation...

Even ports like Donkey Kong Country are selling far faster than the original. The original did not even make it into the most sold Wii U games chart by Nintendo, whereas the Switch version has already shipped 1.42 million units in less than two months. 

I don't want to be that guy that says that everything that touches the Switch will just automatically sell. We know that isn't true. But the ceiling for unit sales is a lot higher with this console than an average Nintendo platform. The only game that isn't smashing records, is Mario Kart, and that's to be expected because of Wii's outstanding performance ... 

You summed up well my thoughts. 

Btw, I want to point out that people shouldn't count MK8D out just yet. This game is always the one with the longest legs of the titles released. It's always topping charts and selling at a stable rate, so if it keeps that way, even something like 30m (MKWii/DS level) isn't out of reach. There haven't been a quarter where it shipped less than 1m, far from that actually, so, with the holidays in mind, we can safely assume something like ~5m sales per year for the years to come, and 2m~3m when Nintendo's next system is close to launch. With that in mind, it could go like that:

2018: 14m (by the year's ending)

2019: 19m

2020: 24m

2021: 27m

2022: 29m

2023 onwards: 30m~32m

I don't know...I mean, zelda did better than previous entries, true, but it's not so far ahead of twilight princess right now and it was a very anticipated game that released more than 5 years after its predecessor and embraced the open world concept that is so loved lately. SSBU is just...well, an ultimate version of the usual ssb. It will surely sell very well, but I'm not sure it will be able to double the current best selling entry in the series like you think. I'm personally expecting 15 mln, which would make it the best selling ssb game ever.

Also, now that I think of it, you basically expect ssbu to double mario odyssey. It seems a little bit too optimistic to me.

you pretty much nailed it, plus those games got huge boosts by being near launch titles, mario just had insane hype and switch was on fire. this year smash is competing with many  Nintendo games and just looks like a ultimate version sure its great if you're smash fan but not gonna attract new users.

It's 2m ahead of TP after only being available for 18 months, and it's still shipping a lot each quarter.

Btw, I'm not expecting Smash to double Odyssey as I (and most people on VGC) expect Odyssey to at least get near the 20m mark, really. You talk like these games' current sales are definitive, like they're set in stones and won't keep growing. I don't know why you perceive it this way, but I assure you it's not like that xD... especially with Nintendo games, which almost always have long legs (meaning they sell well after long periods). Maybe you're not following the sales of these games, or maybe you're missing the quarterly results. If you follow these reports, you'll be able to better understand the sales curve of the games.

Lol just as I summed up your thoughts, you summed up mine. I do not get that response ... maybe the value of legs is just lost though. I assure you last92, it's quite high  

Oh by the way, I'm  rooting for a Mario Kart 9 ... so ... nah, i'd rather not xD 

Me too! xD But let's be honest, the way MK8D is selling, they're better off keeping MK9 for Switch's successor launch. Maybe even do a cross gen release à la Zelda, I don't know. It seems to help selling new consoles as well as pleasing owners of the older system.