AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Just look at any Switch game that's out there right now. As of June 30th, 2018: Super Mario Odyssey shipped 11.17 million copies in 246 days (or roughly 8 months), 3D Mario games generally only sell around the 11-12 million mark in their entire life. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild shipped 9.32 million copies, making it the single highest selling Zelda sku ever, and only a few million away from beating Ocarina of Time's N64 + 3DS sales (which it's more than likely done by now as of writing this, and if it is hasn't, it definitely will by the end of this year). This is only including the Switch version. The thing is it's not just extremely innovative or re-imagined franchises either ... something like Splatoon 2 has already sold %140 what Splatoon sold in it's entire life. Yes, it still has some novelty going for it, and obviously the Wii U had a very small install base (which usually doesn't mean much but certainly capped games like Splatoon). However ... the point is that the consistency is there. Xenoblade sold better than the past games in just a couple of months, Kirby has had some rejuvenation... Even ports like Donkey Kong Country are selling far faster than the original. The original did not even make it into the most sold Wii U games chart by Nintendo, whereas the Switch version has already shipped 1.42 million units in less than two months. I don't want to be that guy that says that everything that touches the Switch will just automatically sell. We know that isn't true. But the ceiling for unit sales is a lot higher with this console than an average Nintendo platform. The only game that isn't smashing records, is Mario Kart, and that's to be expected because of Wii's outstanding performance ... |
You summed up well my thoughts.
Btw, I want to point out that people shouldn't count MK8D out just yet. This game is always the one with the longest legs of the titles released. It's always topping charts and selling at a stable rate, so if it keeps that way, even something like 30m (MKWii/DS level) isn't out of reach. There haven't been a quarter where it shipped less than 1m, far from that actually, so, with the holidays in mind, we can safely assume something like ~5m sales per year for the years to come, and 2m~3m when Nintendo's next system is close to launch. With that in mind, it could go like that:
2018: 14m (by the year's ending)
2019: 19m
2020: 24m
2021: 27m
2022: 29m
2023 onwards: 30m~32m
Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won
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