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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2018 thread, results up! PS4 421K; NSW 259K; XB1 176K; 3DS 81K

 

Let me know you feedback, would you like those threads to be a thing?

yes 46 93.88%
 
no 3 6.12%
 
Total:49
AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 October 2018
quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

You mean the 4.2 million figure is PS4 + PS3 combined? Because ... it isn't. Your writing is confusing. 

it is combined.right on top of the shipment numbers it says so （Upper: Total Lower: PS4, Unit: Million）＊From FY2015, only PS4 unit sales is disclosed.

Well ok, first of all I don't believe that Barkley and Jason are using the same source I used. The Sony report I linked was VERY straight forward and was only talking about A ) PS4 and B ) sell-through

the 4.5 million being a combination of PS4 and PS3 makes no sense, you can't write a financial report with the headline 

PLAYSTATION®4 (PS4™) GLOBAL CUMULATIVE SALES SURPASS 4.2 MILLION

continue to talk about it as sell through of one specific system, and then actually only ship 4.5 million consoles for two separate systems. That would indicate either Sony is lying, or that they only shipped like 100k PS3 systems maximum



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 October 2018
flashfire926 said:
quickrick said:

ok doing some more research the problem with those sony numbers is that they were combined ps3/ps4 sales so yea its 4.2 million.

 

here it is （Upper: Total Lower: PS4, Unit: Million）＊From FY2015, only PS4 unit sales is disclosed. 

 

from the the very same link you guys provided so damn it im right again.

You didnt even read the link properly. The upper says 7.8, and the lower says 4.5. So no, you remain wrong.

^

just checked his and Barkley's link and this is right. I don't know how you misinterpret a graph this badly. 



quickrick on 21 October 2018
flashfire926 said:
quickrick said:

ok doing some more research the problem with those sony numbers is that they were combined ps3/ps4 sales so yea its 4.2 million.

 

here it is （Upper: Total Lower: PS4, Unit: Million）＊From FY2015, only PS4 unit sales is disclosed. 

 

from the the very same link you guys provided so damn it im right again.

You didnt even read the link properly. The upper says 7.8, and the lower says 4.5. So no, you remain wrong.

yea have to admit I'm wrong then.



quickrick on 21 October 2018
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
flashfire926 said:

You didnt even read the link properly. The upper says 7.8, and the lower says 4.5. So no, you remain wrong.

^

just checked his and Barkley's link and this is right. I don't know how you misinterpret a graph this badly. 

lol i don't know as well.



Miyamotoo on 21 October 2018
Kai_Mao said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Unless Nintendo is planning a $199 BF and $249 for the the remainder of the holidays (which Nintendo would never be caught dead doing), 20 million is quite a lofty goal. 17-18 million has always seemed more likely IMO

I mean, Nintendo did cut the price of the 3DS to a significant amount and even cut the price of the GameCube to $99. They even cut the price of the successful Wii.

Not saying that they will cut the Switch's price this holiday, but it's not necessarily out of the options. Right now, they probably want to sell it as a profit and if they still believe its selling well enough as a profit at its current price, then they'll stay the course with its price.

Quite different situation, 3DS need price cut because it didnt sell well, same goes for GameCube. Switch is selling very well and Nintendo has a quite a profit with current price point, so even if they miss target for 2-3m maybe they want make price cut.

Maybe Nintendo will have BF deals, something like Switch bundle with game for $300, people dont need to expect more than that.

 

quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Good comment. Although I would not necessarily say we overestimated demand for Switch. iirc Even with stock issues Switch shipped/sold 16.4 mil in first year versus 14.5 for PS4 first year. Or something like that. The problem is that this year just has the heavy hitters stacked in the last two months. Or at least, in my uneducated opinion.

 

By the way "then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP" 

 

Didn't PSP sell more than 3ds? Shouldn't it be the opposite way around?

the ps4 first year comparison  vs switch was always bad, very bad. ps4 launched during the holiday was severally limited in supply, basically having a minor boost in during  a time where it could ship 6-7 million with out a launch boost included, it only shipped 4.1 million with a launch, boost stock issues were massive.

Luckily we have comparison for second full year and Switch and PS4 are still doing very similar.



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 October 2018
quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

^

just checked his and Barkley's link and this is right. I don't know how you misinterpret a graph this badly. 

lol i don't know as well.

Nothing wrong with misunderstanding something. As long as we admit we're wrong and move on. 

You've schooled me once before (although in my defense, that was about very vague and nearly misleading wording from a complex financial document). I admitted it to you. You'll always have that on me. 

Anyways, back to the main topic. You're right there were advantages for Switch in it's first year. There never won't be. Best we can do is continue to passionately analyze the data and make educated guesses based on that. I'm looking forward to 2019. 



bananaking21 on 21 October 2018
bananaking21 said:

Did you really expect Kingdom hearts 3 to have a huge impact on PS4 sales? An even bigger one than Spiderman or RDR? Because the way you're wording it seems to Indicate that KH3 was going to catapult PS4 sales. Honestly I doubt it will have any affect at all. Maybe a slight bump that week in Japan.

KH3 could have moved some 150-200k consoles worldwide within a month, which does potentially influence the results of a YoY comparison. It obviously isn't huge per se, but I may as well mention it since it's one of the two missing elements that constituted my original prediction. I admit it's silly to lump them together seeing as how a significant price drop is arguably as big a factor as MHW, GoW, Spider-Man, RDR2 and KH3 combined lol.

I don't know man, I really doubt KH3 would move that much PS4s TBH.  Even if it sells really well, there are games that are big sellers but not hardware movers. Maybe in Japan it can move almost that much but I doubt it. 

 

Either way, 150k-200k isn't that big of a deal when it comes to YoY comparisons when the total number is 17-20 million units a Year. Thats about 1% which if a  console is up or down 1% it's considered flat. In a Quarter that number does make a big of difference. 

 

Maybe Im wrong but I just don't see KH3 making a difference in a year so jam packed with big games. heck I doubt assassin's creed this year is going to make any difference due to all the bigger games releasing like fallout, CoD, RDR, Battlefield and exclusives like Spiderman.  



quickrick on 21 October 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Kai_Mao said:

I mean, Nintendo did cut the price of the 3DS to a significant amount and even cut the price of the GameCube to $99. They even cut the price of the successful Wii.

Not saying that they will cut the Switch's price this holiday, but it's not necessarily out of the options. Right now, they probably want to sell it as a profit and if they still believe its selling well enough as a profit at its current price, then they'll stay the course with its price.

Quite different situation, 3DS need price cut because it didnt sell well, same goes for GameCube. Switch is selling very well and Nintendo has a quite a profit with current price point, so even if they miss target for 2-3m maybe they want make price cut.

Maybe Nintendo will have BF deals, something like Switch bundle with game for $300, people dont need to expect more than that.

 

quickrick said:

the ps4 first year comparison  vs switch was always bad, very bad. ps4 launched during the holiday was severally limited in supply, basically having a minor boost in during  a time where it could ship 6-7 million with out a launch boost included, it only shipped 4.1 million with a launch, boost stock issues were massive.

Luckily we have comparison for second full year and Switch and PS4 are still doing very similar.

ps4 is out shipping it by nearly a million so far, correct me im wrong.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
quickrick said:

lol i don't know as well.

Nothing wrong with misunderstanding something. As long as we admit we're wrong and move on. 

You've schooled me once before (although in my defense, that was about very vague and nearly misleading wording from a complex financial document). I admitted it to you. You'll always have that on me. 

Anyways, back to the main topic. You're right there were advantages for Switch in it's first year. There never won't be. Best we can do is continue to passionately analyze the data and make educated guesses based on that. I'm looking forward to 2019. 

True,  but the difference you were throwing personal insults lol. anywayI'm 3 for 3 on my bets so far, but i feel 50/50 on switch doing less then 5.2 bet on npd.

Last edited by quickrick - on 21 October 2018

Kai_Mao on 21 October 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Quite different situation, 3DS need price cut because it didnt sell well, same goes for GameCube. Switch is selling very well and Nintendo has a quite a profit with current price point, so even if they miss target for 2-3m maybe they want make price cut.

Maybe Nintendo will have BF deals, something like Switch bundle with game for $300, people dont need to expect more than that.

 

Luckily we have comparison for second full year and Switch and PS4 are still doing very similar.

ps4 is out shipping it by nearly a million so far, correct me im wrong.

AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Nothing wrong with misunderstanding something. As long as we admit we're wrong and move on. 

You've schooled me once before (although in my defense, that was about very vague and nearly misleading wording from a complex financial document). I admitted it to you. You'll always have that on me. 

Anyways, back to the main topic. You're right there were advantages for Switch in it's first year. There never won't be. Best we can do is continue to passionately analyze the data and make educated guesses based on that. I'm looking forward to 2019. 

True. I'm 3 for 3 on my bets so far, but i feel 50/50 on switch doing less then 5.2 bet on npd.

You truly want to be right :P.



AngryLittleAlchemist on 21 October 2018
quickrick said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

Nothing wrong with misunderstanding something. As long as we admit we're wrong and move on. 

You've schooled me once before (although in my defense, that was about very vague and nearly misleading wording from a complex financial document). I admitted it to you. You'll always have that on me. 

Anyways, back to the main topic. You're right there were advantages for Switch in it's first year. There never won't be. Best we can do is continue to passionately analyze the data and make educated guesses based on that. I'm looking forward to 2019. 

True,  but the difference you were throwing personal insults lol. anywayI'm 3 for 3 on my bets so far, but i feel 50/50 on switch doing less then 5.2 bet on npd.

Didn't see this edit until now.  Where in this discussion was I throwing personal insults? Or are you talking about that time that was almost a year ago in which I apologized to you?