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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - [Updated] Nintendo Main Series: Switch vs Past System

LipeJJ said:
Nuvendil said:
Looking at these, Odyssey will easily pass Galaxy. Mario Tennis Aces might catch the GBA game.

Mario Kart 8D doesn't have a chance really. A Mario Kart 9 if one were released later on might but I am more doubtful of that happening now than I was before.

 

OTBWY said:
I think many Switch mainline games will go far. That Mario kart however, I don't think so.

You guys might be surprised at Mario Kart. It "only" needs to average 4m per year in the next 5 years to surpass Mario Kart Wii, as it will definitely finish this year above 16m on Switch alone. If we combined both versions, it should end the year at ~24m, so it would need to average "only" 2.6m per year to surpass MK Wii. I can definitely see it being the best selling one if we combine both versions, but on Switch alone, it's totally up to if Mario Kart 9 will drop on Switch or not (I think not, they might prefer to invest on a different racer, like Diddy Kong Racing).

I'll add that it's very likely Switch will be active on the market for much longer then what the was, I don't see MK9 ever dropping on the Switch tbh.



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Salnax said:
Ljink96 said:
Nice, especially considering where the Switch is in its life cycle. But I wasn't born when Kirby's Dreamland came out was that game a Pack In or something? Why did it sell so much more than any other game in the series?

I don't know all of the details, but here's some pieces of info.

The original Kirby's Dream Land had pretty good legs. In Japan (where game sales are recorded pretty far back), only about half of its sales were during 1992, and it remained an evergreen title up through 1994.

Kirby's Dream Land was one of a relative handful of Game Boy games to get a cheaper Player's Choice release, which was several years after it was launched. This would have made KDL about half the price of newer games and widely available.

Kirby's Dream Land had already been out for six years when Pokemon became a craze, at which point the pre-Color Game Boy was becoming dirt cheap anyways. And unlike some other of Nintendo's handheld evergreen titles, the Game Boy Color didn't feature a game that supplanted KDL like what Link's Awakening DX or Super Mario Bros Deluxe did to their monochrome counterparts. And by this point, Kirby had brand recognition among console owners.

Ah, okay. That's impressive then. I thought for sure it achieved 5M+ by being a pack in but guess I was wrong. i don't think we'll see another Kirby that sells this well.



Heh, a lot of people have a cognitive disconnect when it comes to the Switch. Some people think it will only sell 50m lifetime while many people think 80m lifetime. The reality is that strong hardware sales go hand in hand with strong software sales. If you see people buying up games like never before, then you can bet they will buy up consoles like never before too.

You don't get record breaking software sales and then disappointing hardware sales. That just doesn't happen.



Looks like Switch versions will all smash their predecessors at this rate



I made a thread for predictions for which series would peak on the Switch and a lot of people underestimated the software selling power of the Switch. By the December 2019 report (January 2020 release) we’ll see at least 3D MARIO, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Xenoblade Chronicles, MARIO Tennis, Smash Bros. and a few others peaking on Switch.

And if Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Pikmin, etc. are well-received, they’ll probably peak on the Switch, too.



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I think most of Nintendo IPs will have its best sales on Switch, except of course some obvious games like Mario Kart Wii and NSMB Wii.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 28 August 2018

You made a mistake with Zelda though, not that it matters for the conclusion, but the highest it sold before BotW is either 8.9m for a combined Twilight Princess or 7.6m for N64 OoT.

Anyway I’d say will break the records set by their predecessors, heck most already did! 3D Mario is a done deal and Mario Tennis is likely as well. Kirby has no chance though and Mario Kart will be extremely difficult. I don’t think it’ll make it but the fact that it’s not flat-out impossible is an achievement already. 2D Mario and Mario Party will be other tests. And Pokémon, but I doubt anything will ever get near the sales of the original games ever again.



You guys should not count Kirby out just yet. We know it has crazy legs, and shipped 1.9m in just 4 months. I'm not saying it will definitely surpass 5m, but the absolute minimum would be 3m imo.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Mar1217 said:
LipeJJ said:

You guys should not count Kirby out just yet. We know it has crazy legs, and shipped 1.9m in just 4 months. I'm not saying it will definitely surpass 5m, but the absolute minimum would be 3m imo.

Which would make it the 2nd best selling game in the series, above SuperStar Ultra. Amazing feat in itself if it happens !

Exactly. The holiday quarter will be an interesting one, as I think it will clear many things for us, including what we should expect of Kirby's lifetime sales, among other games.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

S.Peelman said:
You made a mistake with Zelda though, not that it matters for the conclusion, but the highest it sold before BotW is either 8.9m for a combined Twilight Princess or 7.6m for N64 OoT.

Anyway I’d say will break the records set by their predecessors, heck most already did! 3D Mario is a done deal and Mario Tennis is likely as well. Kirby has no chance though and Mario Kart will be extremely difficult. I don’t think it’ll make it but the fact that it’s not flat-out impossible is an achievement already. 2D Mario and Mario Party will be other tests. And Pokémon, but I doubt anything will ever get near the sales of the original games ever again.

if you are combining, ocarina of time got a 3ds port that sold over 5 milions so Ocarina of time combined is at over 12 millions sold.

 

edit: breath of the wild might past that lifetime but it hasn't yet