Yep, over 10 million copies sold in 2011 just between Just Dance 2 & 3 on Wii. By comparison Just Dance 2018 on Switch has sold 500k. Completely different audience and times.

Sounds like deflection to me. What does that have to do with overall fiscal year software sales?

Wii in 2011 didnt have a new Smash & Pokemon that can sell 10-15 each this fiscal year. The biggest new 1st party title in that fiscal year was Skyward Sword with ~4 million.

Software in Japan that FY was a whopping 9 million which will be crushed this year.

I mean, if you want to believe that Nintendo has a chance to reach that goal, I'm not about to stomp on your hopes.

Switch software from Jan through April this year is at 13.7 million.  And yes, I know that only April matters in terms of the fiscal year target. It still shows woeful results for 1/3 of a calendar year, even with the amazing evergreen performance of Zelda/MK8/Splatoon/Odyssey. Looking at data, I just don't see it as remotely feasible.

Wasn't a big problem with the Wii that casual audiences weren't buying large amounts of software. Which is a problem that is not affecting the switch so far.

The switch has an audience that is buying a larger quantity of games each and also has a wealth of lower priced software available through download.

First of all vgchartz is not accurate with software numbers. 

Secondly that is not including digital sales which are making up a larger portion of software sales every year.

Thirdly it is 100 million shipped not sold.

Games with digital only sales are not included in the 100 million goal. And if you have better software numbers I'd love to see them as I agree VGchartz is not reliable. Did Nintendo announce total software sold last quarter during their fiscal report?

Ah, that confuses things a bit, with a lot of those games getting physical releases as well.

sure if digital is not included that 100 million number will be reached but if included I would say it will reach 100 million.

The problem is you keep making up random excuses that are largely irrelevent to your argument.

You used it being on par with Wii in May 2011 as a reason it wouldnt hit 100m because "Wii was well past its sharp decline".

Then when i pointed out Wii did more than 100m that FY, you changed it to "Just Dance did 10m that year, it only did 500k on Switch", which is about as irrelevant of an argument as it gets.

Then you wanted to ignore that Switch has two seperate 1st party titles that should easily surpass 10m each while the biggest new 1st party title for Wii that year only did 4m.

Dont pretend that your argument is based on data when its not, its 100% based on what you want to happen.

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.