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I mean, if you want to believe that Nintendo has a chance to reach that goal, I'm not about to stomp on your hopes.

Switch software from Jan through April this year is at 13.7 million.  And yes, I know that only April matters in terms of the fiscal year target. It still shows woeful results for 1/3 of a calendar year, even with the amazing evergreen performance of Zelda/MK8/Splatoon/Odyssey. Looking at data, I just don't see it as remotely feasible.