So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

[zorg1000]

Megiddo said:

I mean, if you want to believe that Nintendo has a chance to reach that goal, I'm not about to stomp on your hopes.

Switch software from Jan through April this year is at 13.7 million.  And yes, I know that only April matters in terms of the fiscal year target. It still shows woeful results for 1/3 of a calendar year, even with the amazing evergreen performance of Zelda/MK8/Splatoon/Odyssey. Looking at data, I just don't see it as remotely feasible.

The problem is you keep making up random excuses that are largely irrelevent to your argument.

You used it being on par with Wii in May 2011 as a reason it wouldnt hit 100m because "Wii was well past its sharp decline".

Then when i pointed out Wii did more than 100m that FY, you changed it to "Just Dance did 10m that year, it only did 500k on Switch", which is about as irrelevant of an argument as it gets.

Then you wanted to ignore that Switch has two seperate 1st party titles that should easily surpass 10m each while the biggest new 1st party title for Wii that year only did 4m.

 

Dont pretend that your argument is based on data when its not, its 100% based on what you want to happen.