Recent information, comments and speculation about DS and DS releases, while also looking at the DS charts comparitively for the world lead me to think about this.

Looking at the ramp up rate of DS Hardware sales for the US since the start of this year looks exactly like what started in Japan at the same time last year... has it take the rest of the world a year longer to start to embrace the DS at the same rate (or more) then Japan??? I think so!

I think the DS has not hit it's sales peak, and I believe that the speed of its sales can continue to increase through out this year to peak at its highest level (and probably the best Oct, Nov, Dec in history Worldwide) this year for the Christmas quarter.

The question is, how many are Nintendo going to manufacture this year? I have no doubt in my mind that whatever Nintendo manufactures they are going to sell, but looking at the Christmas period for 2006 in Japan is concerning, yes it got an increase but not as drastic as all other regions (Japan is just completely stock controlled, I think if they put 500k DS into circulation you could see that many sell in a week, no doubt - what is the ceiling?).

Now, games like Picross DS and More Brain Training are not typical gamery games, but those games are sure to have massive legs and stay up high in the charts for a long time, along with all of these are is a CONSTANT trickle of decent - average games that will suit ALL sorts of people (moreso than for what was seen on the PS2 even!) and with every passing week the DS just becomes more and more attractive to more and more people.  

I live in a shared household, and between the three people living there there are four or more DS Lites within the house on a daily basis... I bought one for my girlfriend (she's never owned a games console before) and the other guys girlfriends have them as well.  What I can see with the DS follows very closely to the Ipod curve, the first few years that it was out it ramped up slowly each year to the point where its like 'everyone's gotta have an Ipod' and I think I can see DS following in similar footsteps.

What will it take for DS to reach these astronomical levels? Will the ramp up just continue to increase year after year? (last year was Ipods biggest year after MANY years on the market and many miniture upgrades).

Will it ramp up AGAIN with the release of the next DS model? What slight upgrade will this model feature? Just like the Ipod i'm sure that Nintendo don't plan to increase the base functionality level...

The DS is a crazy phenominon and honestly I think we're only just seeing the start of what is going to be it's amazing life...

What is the cap in each region?

Japan 40 - 50 million?

America 60 - 90 million?

Other 60 - 90 million?

Will the DS be the first consumer electric product to reach 200 million? I doubt even Nintendo are aiming that high but is it possible?

I don't think it's hit its peak in the US yet, but in Japan I think it won't sell at a much higher rate than it is right now...

200 million in japan

 20 mill in the US

20 mill other ROFL

DS will have the best year of any console in history this year. Nintendo themselves forecast 22 million shipments on the fiscal year, which would put them at 62 million by the end of next March. But 22 million is less than they sold last year, and DS wasn't doing 500K/month NA last year. In reality, Nintendo could ship over 30 million units this year. They've already sold 3 million systems since the end of March--given that VGCs current numbers are through the 20th, that's less than 8 weeks. Continuing that rate through October would put them above 50 million through October, possibly well above 50 million. Then Nov + Dec could see 14 or 15 million consoles sold, and then 5 million more through March. Its hard to forecast if they then experience another year of growth, or if they ceiling at 30 million/year. I think its very likely DS reaches 100 million in less than 5 years, and very likely it becomes the best-selling system of all-time. But I don't think it can move towards 200 million (which iPod will hit in two-years time, btw) unless Nintendo either breaks open a 4th major world market, whether Russia or China or India or South America, or someone introduces several more market-expanding titles which are equally as effective as Nintendogs, Brain Training and Animal Crossing have been.

Good post Erik!

Iwata said prodution has been at 2.5 million a month for a while now (sometime last year), and he has been considering uping it again.

What we actually see is a steadily increase of DS hardware since Christmas 2005. That´s when it started to pick up in Japan. In middle 2006 momentum for DS in Europe increased dramaticly, with the US following now in 2007.

DS numbers are still increasing from month to month and the handheld should reach it´s peak this holiday - probably with sales we´ve never seen in history and a giant amount of huge selling games.

DS is a beast. And everyone of us underestimated it, I think. Nobody could´ve known it would sell that huge. Let´s see if Nintendo can double the handheld market size in the US, too. (In Europe and Japan it already happened)

If we look at the worldwide numbers comparing GBA and DS the difference becomes painfully clear: GBA sales don´t look that spectacular from the point DS started to reach the non-gamers.

 DS could really end up beeing the best selling device of all time. If the next DS reaches China and India...I don´t even want to think of it, it´s too crazy.

Edit: GBA Europe sales are not included in the hardware comparison charts. But DS sells on a PS2 - level over here (the numbers are US - like) so it should sell better than GBA over here, too.

Well, remember that the DS is penetrating other markets right now. In Korea it has sold 270k, and Maple Story DS hasn´t been released yet. And there are other markets, such as China and India, which have a lot of potential. Some games, such as Engliash Training, Brain Age, and well, My Word Coach ( has a lot of potential) can be some killer apps for not only gaming but teaching. Honestly, Nintendo should try to focus in increasing production and focusing in new markets. Japan and Europe belong to them, and USA is starting to follow the trend.

I agree Japan will end as the third biggest market of the DS. Everyone seems to assume in Japan the DS has to sell more than in the US or Europe, but I don't believe that. First the US and expecially Europe has a far larger number people to work with. Second is we're seeing the same kind of penetration with non gamers and women with the DS now in the US and Europe that we saw in Japan a year ago. Here's basically what I see with the big three markets for the rest of the DS's lifetime. Japan: The DS will continue to sell consistantly amazing. Dragon Quest IX is probably the last game that can boost the system's demand farther. After that I think though 2008 and beyond it will sell over 100k a week average until it's succeessor comes out. End tally 35-45 million. US: The DS has not peaked yet by any means. It's showing similar penetration to the non gamer market and women as has been seen in Japan, but it's about a year behind Japan in doing that. I think 2007 holiday season the DS will set records. The way things are going I don't think the price drops to $100 until 2008 sometime, and that psychologically satisfying price will give it it's peak sales. 500k plus average for non holiday months, 1.5 million for Novembers, 3 million for Decembers; that's a 10 million a year potential. End tally, including Canadian numbers, 40-50 million. Europe and other markets: The DS also hasn't peaked in Europe. Europe like Japan has been breaking sales records with the DS (more so than the US has) but like the US it's behind Japan in tapping into the non gamer and women. It's certainly happening though. I think late 2007 and though 2008 will be it's peak. The bigger wildcard for the DS though is markets like China and INdia. The DS is pretty much the only system out there with realy potential at breaking though those growing markets. It might not happen for a while, but when it does that could add another 10-20 million in DS sales in addition to the typical strong markets. I think 45-60 million the combined other regions is likely. Final tally world wide: 120 - 155 million.

One thing selling faster then the DS from the start is the wii. Not that I expect it to always stay ahead of sales (that would be crazy!), but it is one thing that may accelerate DS sales even more... when multi-player games for the wii start coming out that use the DS as a controller. You have the shared big screen and everyone has their additional two screens....