DS will have the best year of any console in history this year. Nintendo themselves forecast 22 million shipments on the fiscal year, which would put them at 62 million by the end of next March. But 22 million is less than they sold last year, and DS wasn't doing 500K/month NA last year. In reality, Nintendo could ship over 30 million units this year. They've already sold 3 million systems since the end of March--given that VGCs current numbers are through the 20th, that's less than 8 weeks. Continuing that rate through October would put them above 50 million through October, possibly well above 50 million. Then Nov + Dec could see 14 or 15 million consoles sold, and then 5 million more through March. Its hard to forecast if they then experience another year of growth, or if they ceiling at 30 million/year. I think its very likely DS reaches 100 million in less than 5 years, and very likely it becomes the best-selling system of all-time. But I don't think it can move towards 200 million (which iPod will hit in two-years time, btw) unless Nintendo either breaks open a 4th major world market, whether Russia or China or India or South America, or someone introduces several more market-expanding titles which are equally as effective as Nintendogs, Brain Training and Animal Crossing have been.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
