DS - Hasn't hit the peak of it's momentum ability yet?

[Christopher_G2]

I agree Japan will end as the third biggest market of the DS. Everyone seems to assume in Japan the DS has to sell more than in the US or Europe, but I don't believe that. First the US and expecially Europe has a far larger number people to work with. Second is we're seeing the same kind of penetration with non gamers and women with the DS now in the US and Europe that we saw in Japan a year ago. Here's basically what I see with the big three markets for the rest of the DS's lifetime. Japan: The DS will continue to sell consistantly amazing. Dragon Quest IX is probably the last game that can boost the system's demand farther. After that I think though 2008 and beyond it will sell over 100k a week average until it's succeessor comes out. End tally 35-45 million. US: The DS has not peaked yet by any means. It's showing similar penetration to the non gamer market and women as has been seen in Japan, but it's about a year behind Japan in doing that. I think 2007 holiday season the DS will set records. The way things are going I don't think the price drops to $100 until 2008 sometime, and that psychologically satisfying price will give it it's peak sales. 500k plus average for non holiday months, 1.5 million for Novembers, 3 million for Decembers; that's a 10 million a year potential. End tally, including Canadian numbers, 40-50 million. Europe and other markets: The DS also hasn't peaked in Europe. Europe like Japan has been breaking sales records with the DS (more so than the US has) but like the US it's behind Japan in tapping into the non gamer and women. It's certainly happening though. I think late 2007 and though 2008 will be it's peak. The bigger wildcard for the DS though is markets like China and INdia. The DS is pretty much the only system out there with realy potential at breaking though those growing markets. It might not happen for a while, but when it does that could add another 10-20 million in DS sales in addition to the typical strong markets. I think 45-60 million the combined other regions is likely. Final tally world wide: 120 - 155 million.