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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Will the Switch Dominate The Holiday Season?

 

Will the Switch Dominate The Holiday Season?

Yes 69 50.74%
 
No, Sony will 42 30.88%
 
No, Microsoft will 5 3.68%
 
Not sure 20 14.71%
 
Total:136
last92 said:
CoD will likely have little impact on hw sales during the next holiday season. What I personally think is more interesting is RDR2. If the RDR franchise will achieve similar growth to the GTA franchise, it will be huge. At that point, what remains to be seen is how those sales will be distrubuted between PS4 and Xbone and how they will impact hw sales. If I remember correctly, Sony has a marketing deal with R*, plus exclusive content.

I agree, Call of Duty will sell some systems, but at this stage it's not going to be tons. I do think RDR2 is going to be a lot bigger than the original RDR was.



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Barkley said:
BlackBeauty said:
Which is bigger presently?

A spin off game with 800 million downloads and over 2.5 billion dollars in revenue.

Once again

END. We don’t use VGChartz here

That's an interesting figure? Where did you get that? it had $950m in it's first 6 months, $250m revenue in the 6 months following that. It seems you took the $1.2b figure for it's first 12 months and then doubled it, how terrible.

Pokemon was bigger in 2016 due to Pokemon Go. But other then that Blip, Call of Duty is the bigger gaming franchise.

I understand why you'd want this discussion to end.

Edit: Found Pokemon Go Figures: $1.84B as of December 31st 2017.

So using the January-June figures from 2017 we could estimate revenue is around $2 Billion

What did you expect from him?

I think pokemon go had will have the same effect as wii, its something that was a huge hit, but its not something people will want more of.



quickrick said:
Barkley said:

That's an interesting figure? Where did you get that? it had $950m in it's first 6 months, $250m revenue in the 6 months following that. It seems you took the $1.2b figure for it's first 12 months and then doubled it, how terrible.

Pokemon was bigger in 2016 due to Pokemon Go. But other then that Blip, Call of Duty is the bigger gaming franchise.

I understand why you'd want this discussion to end.

Edit: Found Pokemon Go Figures: $1.84B as of December 31st 2017.

So using the January-June figures from 2017 we could estimate revenue is around $2 Billion

What did you expect from him?

I think pokemon go had will have the same effect as wii, its something that was a huge hit, but its not something people will want more of.

You never seem to tire of lowballing The Switch, it's quite comical actually. 



PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

What did you expect from him?

I think pokemon go had will have the same effect as wii, its something that was a huge hit, but its not something people will want more of.

You never seem to tire of lowballing The Switch, it's quite comical actually. 

Aside from early on with the cliff comment my prediction have been close to reality, amazon wasn't a good indicator and switch is not crushing ps4 in npd, or even beating it like most thought it would, let me see a break out month for switch. switch sales are being over hyped into madness with out any proof that it can actually sell that much.



quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

You never seem to tire of lowballing The Switch, it's quite comical actually. 

Aside from early on with the cliff comment my prediction have been close to reality, amazon wasn't a good indicator and switch is not crushing ps4 in npd, or even beating it like most thought it would, let me see a break out month for switch. switch sales are being over hyped into madness with out any proof that it can actually sell that much.

Selective amnesia? You said Switch would lose December NPD. Switch wouldn't win a single NPD in 2018. Switch would lose to PS4 by over 100k and come on 3rd in March NPD, all wrong. And those are just the ones I remember, I'm sure there's plenty more as well as your assertions Smash wouldn't do well and now claiming Pokemon Pikachu/Eevee isnt going to do well and "looks real stupid". Pretty sure you'll be wrong on those as well.



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

Aside from early on with the cliff comment my prediction have been close to reality, amazon wasn't a good indicator and switch is not crushing ps4 in npd, or even beating it like most thought it would, let me see a break out month for switch. switch sales are being over hyped into madness with out any proof that it can actually sell that much.

Selective amnesia? You said Switch would lose December NPD. Switch wouldn't win a single NPD in 2018. Switch would lose to PS4 by over 100k and come on 3rd in March NPD, all wrong. And those are just the ones I remember, I'm sure there's plenty more as well as your assertions Smash wouldn't do well and now claiming Pokemon Pikachu/Eevee isnt going to do well and "looks real stupid". Pretty sure you'll be wrong on those as well.

your going back 6 months or over which fall in line with my cliff comments. I thought switch would lose by near 100k it was 50k i was wrong about that, of course i'm not perfect, there was nothing insane though about those predictions. As for smash i think it will do around 10-12 million it won't be the second coming, pokemon go probably do 6-8 milllion. 



quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Selective amnesia? You said Switch would lose December NPD. Switch wouldn't win a single NPD in 2018. Switch would lose to PS4 by over 100k and come on 3rd in March NPD, all wrong. And those are just the ones I remember, I'm sure there's plenty more as well as your assertions Smash wouldn't do well and now claiming Pokemon Pikachu/Eevee isnt going to do well and "looks real stupid". Pretty sure you'll be wrong on those as well.

your going back 6 months or over which fall in line with my cliff comments. I thought switch would lose by near 100k it was 50k i was wrong about that, of course i'm not perfect, there was nothing insane though about those predictions. As for smash i think it will do around 10-12 million it won't be the second coming, pokemon go probably do 6-8 milllion. 

Pokemon LETS GO will do 6 million in less than a month. Smash can do 20 million. I truly don't understand your reasons for these horrible software sales. Like for real, if Botw has a shot at 15 million, than these two titles can surely reach that. 



MasonADC said:
quickrick said:

your going back 6 months or over which fall in line with my cliff comments. I thought switch would lose by near 100k it was 50k i was wrong about that, of course i'm not perfect, there was nothing insane though about those predictions. As for smash i think it will do around 10-12 million it won't be the second coming, pokemon go probably do 6-8 milllion. 

Pokemon LETS GO will do 6 million in less than a month. Smash can do 20 million. I truly don't understand your reasons for these horrible software sales. Like for real, if Botw has a shot at 15 million, than these two titles can surely reach that. 

I don't why people keep comparing break out game in a franchise that are some of the highest rated games of all time, to a regular entry, plus zelda was a launch games, it got a huge boost from that as well. example uncharted franchise usually sell much better then god of war, god of war changed the formula and has become a break out hit with amazing reviews, it's on pace to outsell uncharted 4 easily.      

Last edited by quickrick - on 01 June 2018

quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Selective amnesia? You said Switch would lose December NPD. Switch wouldn't win a single NPD in 2018. Switch would lose to PS4 by over 100k and come on 3rd in March NPD, all wrong. And those are just the ones I remember, I'm sure there's plenty more as well as your assertions Smash wouldn't do well and now claiming Pokemon Pikachu/Eevee isnt going to do well and "looks real stupid". Pretty sure you'll be wrong on those as well.

your going back 6 months or over which fall in line with my cliff comments. I thought switch would lose by near 100k it was 50k i was wrong about that, of course i'm not perfect, there was nothing insane though about those predictions. As for smash i think it will do around 10-12 million it won't be the second coming, pokemon go probably do 6-8 milllion. 

A game that sells 10-12 million units, particularly an evergreen game like Smash, should be able to seriously push some hardware units. Let's Go Pokemon (which I still see you refer to as Pokemon Go, despite, again it being more of Yellow remake with two mechanics from Pokemon Go included), is a bit more uncertain. I am currently more conservative about and my predictions with that one and hence my prediction here is more in line with yours (I am generally in the  5-7 million camp right now), but I still see it capable of moving hardware (I personally know a number of Pokemon fans that were waiting for a Pokemon game to get a Switch, some of them bought one on the day of the announcements while others now are planning to get one at or slightly before the games release; this anecdotal, however, hence why I am not quite ready to become more bullish on these games yet).

I think Smash + Pokemon Let's Go (even though its effect is not as certain as a mainline title) + evergreen titles/support titles should help keep Switch close to the last year's holiday sales (because I am uncertain about Pokemon yet...I will say it may be a bit below last year). If Nintendo does announce more exclusives and/or games that may not be exclsuive but would benefit from the system's portability at E3, then I think they may be able to surpass last year (of course I am a bit skeptical on that at this point, until we actually get the announcements).



nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

your going back 6 months or over which fall in line with my cliff comments. I thought switch would lose by near 100k it was 50k i was wrong about that, of course i'm not perfect, there was nothing insane though about those predictions. As for smash i think it will do around 10-12 million it won't be the second coming, pokemon go probably do 6-8 milllion. 

A game that sells 10-12 million units, particularly an evergreen game like Smash, should be able to seriously push some hardware units. Let's Go Pokemon (which I still see you refer to as Pokemon Go, despite, again it being more of Yellow remake with two mechanics from Pokemon Go included), is a bit more uncertain. I am currently more conservative about and my predictions with that one and hence my prediction here is more in line with yours (I am generally in the  5-7 million camp right now), but I still see it capable of moving hardware (I personally know a number of Pokemon fans that were waiting for a Pokemon game to get a Switch, some of them bought one on the day of the announcements while others now are planning to get one at or slightly before the games release; this anecdotal, however, hence why I am not quite ready to become more bullish on these games yet).

I think Smash + Pokemon Let's Go (even though its effect is not as certain as a mainline title) + evergreen titles/support titles should help keep Switch close to the last year's holiday sales (because I am uncertain about Pokemon yet...I will say it may be a bit below last year). If Nintendo does announce more exclusives and/or games that may not be exclsuive but would benefit from the system's portability at E3, then I think they may be able to surpass last year (of course I am a bit skeptical on that at this point, until we actually get the announcements).

OK so were basically thinking the same in terms of sales, i'm just not thinking this years line up is the second coming like most people do, still think last year line looks  much better.