Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

No I'm used to people saying I have neurological issues for no reason, and then saying it was a joke. Happens every day, no worries.

And yeah, I said you may have to look at all the digits depending on where you start. If you start by looking at the percentages, which is what I was mainly interested in, you'll have to compare with the prediction and the sales as well to know if the percentage indicates over or underestimations.

For example.

Person #1: 30%, 30%, 30% (90%)
Person #2: 20%, 20%, 20% (60%)

I don't know which of those are over or under, unless I compare with their predictions and the sales numbers.
If I only look at their prediction after this, I still won't know if it's over or under, unless I compare to the sales numbers as well. (Whether I memorized those or not.)

But if it looked like this:

Person #1: -30%, +30%, -30% (90%)
Person #2: +20%, +20%, -20% (60%)

I immediately know which are over or under estimations, and at this point I can look at either their prediction or the sales numbers if I want an estimate of how far off they were in terms of digits.

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

Sony have such an awesome year. Surely a permanent price cut this holiday aswell. 

Labo didn't exactly have a wow month. 

A lot of people were saying it did bad. But it came third in the US! It must have done well

Nintendo likes to be bullish to impress investors. they were off with wiiu for like 3 years in a row big time. there is no way nintendo is hitting 20 million imo.

I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year? 

Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy...

Yeah, I saw someone mention the possibility of Jp sales being subtracted because it supposedly happened before. Didn't know that info came from Zhuge, or if anyone did the math with the latest estimates from EA to see if it adds up.

If they're somehow trying to track unique owners, then I wonder what method they're using. I imagine that would be hard even for Sony and MS to accurately track, because people can either use their existing PSN/XBL accounts on their new machines, or create unique accounts for them.

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).

It looks like that person got that percentage from dividing XB1's NPD LTD numbers by the quantity of EA's install base estimate minus Sony's PS4 sell-through numbers. It's already established that subtracting the PS4's sell-through numbers from EA's estimate is not an accurate way of finding out the XB1's WW sales. Last time I checked, the US made out around 60% of the XB1's total sales. A jump from 60% to 70% is hard to believe, in my opinion.