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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

flashfire926 on 18 May 2018
Aura7541 said:
DonFerrari said:

Last time we had reliable MS numbers were near the 10M, so a shift from 60 to 70% on a period that X1 have been continualy underperformed WW but held close on USA makes it possible.

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

the worldwide sales are 15% up, us sales are about 34% up yoy in first four months according to npd numbers.

looks like us is fully responsible for the ww increase, and that rest of the world is slightly down.

still, the ratio is probaby closer to 60 than 70.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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CalmFire on 18 May 2018

Crazy good month for God of War and PS4.



DonFerrari on 18 May 2018
Aura7541 said:
DonFerrari said:

Last time we had reliable MS numbers were near the 10M, so a shift from 60 to 70% on a period that X1 have been continualy underperformed WW but held close on USA makes it possible.

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

Hiku said:
DonFerrari said:

Seems like you took a joke quite hard.

You don't need to remember all the digits to know if it is a + or - ... since most are over 10% wrong you putting PS4/X1/Switch to some nearing like 25 to 25 interval rounding (like consider PS4 325k Switch 175k X1 125k) and looking at whatever the predictioner have put you will now if it's over or under.

If you want to only look at the percentage and call it a day just look at the sum of the percentages from the prediktor to see if he was to much off the mark.

No I'm used to people saying I have neurological issues for no reason, and then saying it was a joke. Happens every day, no worries.

And yeah, I said you may have to look at all the digits depending on where you start. If you start by looking at the percentages, which is what I was mainly interested in, you'll have to compare with the prediction and the sales as well to know if the percentage indicates over or underestimations.

For example.

Person #1: 30%, 30%, 30% (90%)
Person #2: 20%, 20%, 20% (60%)

I don't know which of those are over or under, unless I compare with their predictions and the sales numbers.
If I only look at their prediction after this, I still won't know if it's over or under, unless I compare to the sales numbers as well. (Whether I memorized those or not.)

But if it looked like this:

Person #1: -30%, +30%, -30% (90%)
Person #2: +20%, +20%, -20% (60%)

I immediately know which are over or under estimations, and at this point I can look at either their prediction or the sales numbers if I want an estimate of how far off they were in terms of digits.

Man I'm really sorry about people making fun of your mental health. I really didn't mean it like that. But if you don't mind ok.

When you said all digits I understood that as looking at a prediction sayin 327653 PS4 sold, not looking at all the number in question.

No idea why would you think the most relevant part would be the +- for not to look at the rest. But sure the inclusion wouldn't take much effort and for some would add value.

Aura7541 said:
Hiku said:

Any idea how EA determine the install base? If one person buys a PS4 Slim and then a PS4 Pro, does that count as 1 or 2 units to them?

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).



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http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

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kirby007 on 18 May 2018

The thing is if i work woth + and -
+20% +20% -20% sum becomes 20% off
Yes there might be ways to avoid that but this is sinplistic



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Jranation on 18 May 2018
Kerotan said:
Megiddo said:

God of War, Spider-man, Kingdom Hearts 3, Red Dead Redemption 2, COD BLOPS IV
 
Sony is going to blow 16 mil right out of the park.

Sony have such an awesome year. Surely a permanent price cut this holiday aswell. 

Jranation said:
Not surprised! But Labo at 3rd! And DK at 4th! Wow!

Labo didn't exactly have a wow month. 

 

A lot of people were saying it did bad. But it came third in the US! It must have done well



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zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
Jranation said:
Kerotan said:

Sony have such an awesome year. Surely a permanent price cut this holiday aswell. 

Labo didn't exactly have a wow month. 

 

A lot of people were saying it did bad. But it came third in the US! It must have done well

3rd without digital



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:
Pinkie_pie said:
How is nintendo expecting to sell 20m switch this year when it's not gonna outsell ps4 and Sony is expecting 16m this year?

Nintendo likes to be bullish to impress investors. they were off with wiiu for like 3 years in a row big time. there is no way nintendo is hitting 20 million imo.

Well normally, they are rather conservative with their predictions. With the Wii U, nothing managed to salvage the sales of the System, but I can still remember Nintendos 15M prediction for the Wii in 2008.

Sales are down a bit YoY in the US, but for the rest of the world? We know it's up in Japan, and I'm sure it's not the only country to do so. We don't know what Switch will offer us for the rest of the financial year, which just has begun. It's way too soon to dismiss those 20M already imo



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 18 May 2018
Faelco said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year? 

 

Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy...

20M is for the financial year, April through March, not calendar year



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Aura7541 on 18 May 2018
Hiku said:
Aura7541 said:

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

Yeah, I saw someone mention the possibility of Jp sales being subtracted because it supposedly happened before. Didn't know that info came from Zhuge, or if anyone did the math with the latest estimates from EA to see if it adds up.

If they're somehow trying to track unique owners, then I wonder what method they're using. I imagine that would be hard even for Sony and MS to accurately track, because people can either use their existing PSN/XBL accounts on their new machines, or create unique accounts for them.

My guess (and Don's) would be EA taking stuff like average system failure rates and proportion of Pro/XB1X sales being upgrade purchases into account. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.

DonFerrari said:
Aura7541 said:

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

Aura7541 said:

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).

That's fair. I never claimed that Zhuge is gospel, but I do trust that he thinks things over and calculates his estimates carefully. The only other source we have is the JRR report and some of their PS4 shipment numbers are off. They have the XB1 shipments at 32.15 million by the end of 2017, which I think is too low. Their 2014, 2015, and 2016 XB1 shipment numbers actually look alright, but 2013 is too low. JRR has it at 3.08m, but Microsoft said they shipped 3.9m by the end of 2013.



Intrinsic on 18 May 2018
Aura7541 said:
JRPGfan said:

From the ResetEra thread:

"While we are specifically talking about the US. The bigger news for me is the US market now accounts for ~70% of Xbox’s worldwide sales. That puts them at under 200k worldwide for the month of April.

The US accounts for around 35% of PS4’s worldwide market. So that puts PS4’s worldwide sales for April around 1m. Of course, it’s an exceptional month with God of War’s launch, but it’s clear Microsoft need greater efforts outside their hone market. " - Apex88

Is this true?

Is PS4 going to 5 to 1, the Xbox WorldWide this month?

It looks like that person got that percentage from dividing XB1's NPD LTD numbers by the quantity of EA's install base estimate minus Sony's PS4 sell-through numbers. It's already established that subtracting the PS4's sell-through numbers from EA's estimate is not an accurate way of finding out the XB1's WW sales. Last time I checked, the US made out around 60% of the XB1's total sales. A jump from 60% to 70% is hard to believe, in my opinion.

Not that aI agree with the dude, but a jump from 60 to 70% isn't that far fetched when you consider that its a not a jump at all..... in truth it just means that the XB1's performance outside NA is getting worse. The worse it gets outside NA the bigger a percentage NA will represent in sales.