PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

[DonFerrari]

Aura7541 said:

DonFerrari said:

Last time we had reliable MS numbers were near the 10M, so a shift from 60 to 70% on a period that X1 have been continualy underperformed WW but held close on USA makes it possible.

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

Hiku said:

DonFerrari said:

Seems like you took a joke quite hard.

You don't need to remember all the digits to know if it is a + or - ... since most are over 10% wrong you putting PS4/X1/Switch to some nearing like 25 to 25 interval rounding (like consider PS4 325k Switch 175k X1 125k) and looking at whatever the predictioner have put you will now if it's over or under.

If you want to only look at the percentage and call it a day just look at the sum of the percentages from the prediktor to see if he was to much off the mark.

No I'm used to people saying I have neurological issues for no reason, and then saying it was a joke. Happens every day, no worries.

And yeah, I said you may have to look at all the digits depending on where you start. If you start by looking at the percentages, which is what I was mainly interested in, you'll have to compare with the prediction and the sales as well to know if the percentage indicates over or underestimations.

For example.

Person #1: 30%, 30%, 30% (90%)
Person #2: 20%, 20%, 20% (60%)

I don't know which of those are over or under, unless I compare with their predictions and the sales numbers.
If I only look at their prediction after this, I still won't know if it's over or under, unless I compare to the sales numbers as well. (Whether I memorized those or not.)

But if it looked like this:

Person #1: -30%, +30%, -30% (90%)
Person #2: +20%, +20%, -20% (60%)

I immediately know which are over or under estimations, and at this point I can look at either their prediction or the sales numbers if I want an estimate of how far off they were in terms of digits.

Man I'm really sorry about people making fun of your mental health. I really didn't mean it like that. But if you don't mind ok.

When you said all digits I understood that as looking at a prediction sayin 327653 PS4 sold, not looking at all the number in question.

No idea why would you think the most relevant part would be the +- for not to look at the rest. But sure the inclusion wouldn't take much effort and for some would add value.

Aura7541 said:

Hiku said:

Any idea how EA determine the install base? If one person buys a PS4 Slim and then a PS4 Pro, does that count as 1 or 2 units to them?

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).