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Aura7541 on 18 May 2018
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Hiku said:
Aura7541 said:

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

Yeah, I saw someone mention the possibility of Jp sales being subtracted because it supposedly happened before. Didn't know that info came from Zhuge, or if anyone did the math with the latest estimates from EA to see if it adds up.

If they're somehow trying to track unique owners, then I wonder what method they're using. I imagine that would be hard even for Sony and MS to accurately track, because people can either use their existing PSN/XBL accounts on their new machines, or create unique accounts for them.

My guess (and Don's) would be EA taking stuff like average system failure rates and proportion of Pro/XB1X sales being upgrade purchases into account. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.

DonFerrari said:
Aura7541 said:

Zhuge has the XB1's total sales at around 35m by the end of last year, which means the US takes up about 60% of sales. It is likely that over the course of Q1 CY2018, the percentage went up because IIRC, XB1 sales were up YOY by 15% though in the US, the YOY increase was greater in the same time period. But 60% to 70%? That's a big stretch.

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

Aura7541 said:

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).

That's fair. I never claimed that Zhuge is gospel, but I do trust that he thinks things over and calculates his estimates carefully. The only other source we have is the JRR report and some of their PS4 shipment numbers are off. They have the XB1 shipments at 32.15 million by the end of 2017, which I think is too low. Their 2014, 2015, and 2016 XB1 shipment numbers actually look alright, but 2013 is too low. JRR has it at 3.08m, but Microsoft said they shipped 3.9m by the end of 2013.