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Forums - Sales Discussion - may 2019 : NS outsells N64

kirby007 on 03 May 2018

I also predict the NS will outsell the gamecube in september this year



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StarDoor on 03 May 2018

So are you making a timid prediction to try and balance out all of the bold predictions that VGChartz gets?

Nintendo projects 37.79M units will be shipped by March 31st, 2019, and it just needs 32.93M to outsell N64. Also, to beat GameCube's 21.74M by September 30th, 2018, Switch only needs to ship 1.98M per quarter, when it did 2.92M in both of the previous two non-holiday quarters.

Last edited by StarDoor - on 03 May 2018

Green098 on 03 May 2018

I think it'll be a good bit quicker than that, I mean Nintendo's own forecasts put Switch numbers at 37.79 million as of March 31st 2019.



killeryoshis on 03 May 2018

I don't know why but I read the title as the Switch will outsell the N64 for the Month of May 2019. I was like gee I hope so. That would be a disaster if they didn't



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p0isonparadise on 03 May 2018

Good job, Kirby.



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haxxiy on 03 May 2018
StarDoor said:

So are you making a timid prediction to try and balance out all of the bold predictions that VGChartz gets?

Nintendo projects 37.79M units will be shipped by March 31st, 2019, and it just needs 32.93M to outsell N64. Also, to beat GameCube's 21.74M by September 30th, 2018, Switch only needs to ship 1.98M per quarter, when it did 2.92M in both of the previous two non-holiday quarters.

It's going to be down Year-on-Year on a few weeks or a couple of months, isn't, though? As far as I remember, that is the case at least for Japan.

You may argue that are games to launch and the holiday season could be bigger for the Switch, but that still remains a more distant prospect, yet to be proven, and being down YoY is closer to reality right now.



 

 

 

 

 

Miyamotoo on 03 May 2018

Too long, Nintendo's forecasts put Switch numbers at 37.79 million as of March 31st 2019. so at years end Switch will most likly pass N64 numbers, GC numbers will be passed around July.



Green098 on 03 May 2018
haxxiy said:
StarDoor said:

So are you making a timid prediction to try and balance out all of the bold predictions that VGChartz gets?

Nintendo projects 37.79M units will be shipped by March 31st, 2019, and it just needs 32.93M to outsell N64. Also, to beat GameCube's 21.74M by September 30th, 2018, Switch only needs to ship 1.98M per quarter, when it did 2.92M in both of the previous two non-holiday quarters.

It's going to be down Year-on-Year on a few weeks or a couple of months, isn't, though? As far as I remember, that is the case at least for Japan.

You may argue that are games to launch and the holiday season could be bigger for the Switch, but that still remains a more distant prospect, yet to be proven, and being down YoY is closer to reality right now.

No... not even close.  

----------------------------------------------

According to VGChartz:

For Calendar Year;

Switch 2017 sales as of April 22nd: 2,815,356

Switch 2018 sales as of April 21st: 3,595,915

For Fiscal Year;

Switch Fiscal Year 2016 sales as of week 52 (April 1st 2016-March 31st 2017): 2,329,838

Switch Fiscal Year 2017 sales as of week 3 (April 1st 2017-April 22nd 2017): 485,791

Switch Fiscal Year 2018 sales as of week 3 (April 1st 2018-April 21st 2018): 585,309

------------------------------------------------

No matter what way you put it Nintendo Switch sales are clearly up Year over Year worldwide.

Last edited by Green098 - on 03 May 2018

KLAMarine on 03 May 2018

RiP N64



StarDoor on 03 May 2018
haxxiy said:
StarDoor said:

So are you making a timid prediction to try and balance out all of the bold predictions that VGChartz gets?

Nintendo projects 37.79M units will be shipped by March 31st, 2019, and it just needs 32.93M to outsell N64. Also, to beat GameCube's 21.74M by September 30th, 2018, Switch only needs to ship 1.98M per quarter, when it did 2.92M in both of the previous two non-holiday quarters.

It's going to be down Year-on-Year on a few weeks or a couple of months, isn't, though? As far as I remember, that is the case at least for Japan.

You may argue that are games to launch and the holiday season could be bigger for the Switch, but that still remains a more distant prospect, yet to be proven, and being down YoY is closer to reality right now.

No.

May and June were the worst months for Switch last year by a substantial margin. Switch is currently up year-on-year in Japan and has sold 37k per week during April 2018, while it sold an average of 32k in May 2017 and 28k in June 2017. Additionally, the early part of May 2017 was boosted by the increase in supply thanks to Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, given that Switch sold 48k in the first week of May and 27k in the final week. Switch currently has a lead of 56k. In order for Switch to be down year-on-year at the end of June, its weekly sales must fall below a 24k average for the period, which is incredibly unlikely given historical trends.

Looking outside Japan, Nintendo's own shipment data shows that more Switch units were shipped in Q1 2018 than in Q1 2017.

And according to VGChartz, Switch's sell-through was up year-on-year more than 700k as of the middle of April.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/276066/year-on-year-sales-amp-market-share-charts-april-14-2018/

The only region in which your argument could be made is the United States, because Switch was down between 50k and 100k for January-March, but even this would be shortsighted, given that Switch had the second best launch month of any video game hardware ever in the US. Just like in Japan, May and June 2017 were Switch's worst months in that year, and it will easily be up YoY by the end of Q2 2018.