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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won March NPD (PS4: 354K, NSW: 308K, XBO: 299K)

VGPolyglot said:
quickrick said:

lol thats why i win all my bets ;) i also get many of predictions right. especially with  you, every time you questioned me, saying my predictions are ridiculous  you come out wrong, like  november, feb, and march.

Well, of course you win all of your bets, you made a claim that the PS4 would outsell the Switch by 80k+ but then you refused to bet on it.

yea i thought it would, but i only make bets when i'm really confident, that i wasn't. 



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Basically shows that Switch is down this quarter compared to last year's quarter in the US ... (~860K vs >900K)

If we just compare just US + Japan in total then it's ~1540K vs ~1470K yet VGC's global total shows a massive uptick compared to both quarters ... (~3M vs ~2.33M)

It seems a little suspect that Europe + Others made up nearly HALF of the differential ...



Shadow1980 said:

Everything did better than I thought. Solid numbers all around.

PS4 slightly down YoY. Not by much, but it's clearly past its peak potential at the present price point. Still, it's doing quite well.

XBO is, surprisingly, up a good bit YoY for Q1. X1X effect, possibly?

And the Switch sold slightly more in Q1 than it did in March of last year.

I won't be able to post charts until Saturday night at the earliest. I don't have the time to do so right now. I have to leave in a few minutes.

Xbox is 60 USD cheaper then ps4. If it was the same price I think its numbers would be bad. Agreed with ps4. Feels like Sony is keeping it at 300 because it wants all those extra sales mhw and gow have given it to maximise profits. Still big titles coming like detroit, spiderman and rdr2. But how long will Sony hold out for profit. I predict a big permanent drop either at e3 or after all the big games have dropped in November. 



quickrick said:
VGPolyglot said:

Well, of course you win all of your bets, you made a claim that the PS4 would outsell the Switch by 80k+ but then you refused to bet on it.

yea i thought it would, but i only make bets when i'm really confident, that i wasn't. 

Confident enough to bet on LABO then? Or Smash?



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quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

Your bias played a trick on you. You saw a bunch of predictions that had Switch ahead by more than one million units, got upset by that and subsequently started to believe that it's a widespread opinion that Switch will destroy the PS4 in 2018. Remember, the whole "fall of a cliff" meme also came to be because you overreacted.

Here are the ResetEra predictions:

PS4 Switch Xbox One
6500 5300 4100
5600 6100 4000
5610 5500 4400
4800 6500 4000
5800 6000 4000
5750 6150 4200
5250 5500 4350
5200 6300 4700
6500 5700 4100
5600 6200 3500
5800 5200 4100
5600 5400 3990
5700 6300 3700
5678 5432 3456
4900 5450 3950
5030 5400 3850
5900 6500 3900
5000 6000 3850
5820 5650 3850
5500 6000 5501
5780 7000 3475
5450 8360 3900
6000 6100 3900
5700 6200 3700
5200 4500 4300
5100 7500 3500
5500 6000 3800
6000 7500 4000
7000 5500 4000
5760 5000 4080
5400 6700 4250
5600 7100 4600
6700 6700 4100
5000 6250 5000
5200 5500 4500
4750 5850 3850
5700 6500 4100
5400 5600 3900
5800 6100 4200
5010 7750 3780
5750 6600 4000
5318 5368 4169
4800 6000 4300
5100 4800 4200
5000 6250 3750
5500 6000 3700
4914 4392 4129
6500 7500 4200
5700 5500 3800
5555 6666 4444
3900 7200 2900
4100 6000 4250
5340 6320 3980
4907 6707 4307
10000 6000 6100
5600 6200 4200
5950 5200 3500
5800 7800 3500
5940 6370 3510
5100 6600 3900
5550 8000 4500
6500 6000 3700
5450 6750 3980
4850 6100 3650
6250 5750 4725
5320 7100 3400
6100 7200 3800
5300 6100 3900
4900 5800 4400
5880 6861 3899
4850 6200 4220
5200 6400 4100
6000 7750 5000
5250 6900 4050
6200 6500 3800
6000 4400 4550
5350 6050 3750
5341 4525 6489
5002 6801 3903
5550 6640 3970
5850 6350 4000
5500 6650 4100
6500 6000 3500
5665 6255 4445
5100 7250 4400
5750 6030 3930
5576,40 6210,78 4086,42

The ResetEra consensus is that Switch wins by a good 600k units in 2018 or sells about 12% more. The consensus was not that Switch will destroy the PS4, because the margin of victory is too small to draw such a conclusion.

Generalisations are bad. They remove accountability while at the same time they commonly misrepresent a situation; at times it's deliberate, but it's also possible to happen without any ill-intentions. Throwing out an accusation is very easy by means of a generalisation. It's bad enough when it's done within the confines of the VGC community, but using another website's community as a scapegoat to claim heavy Nintendo bias is much worse. As it turns out, not even that is true, so your claims and subsequent defense of them have been especially bad.

sure if you combine everything it looks better, but out of 60 predictions,  i counted like like 48 votes out of 60 i think, that had switch over  by around 800k-1.5 million, to me that is destroying and would basically mean switch has to win almost have to win every npd to achieve this.

Drawing from a smaller group of numbers will probably give you a vastly different result but it doesn't really matter. Winning the whole year by 1 million still wouldn't be proper dominating the competition over the course of a year.

 

And as a whole it's 600K so your point doesn't really matter.



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quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

1. Mario released in Oct, obviously its affects crossed over into Nov but the point stands.

2. Last Nov the biggest new release was Skyrim, a year old port of a 6 year old remaster.

3. What if Nov has a huge title this year like Pokemon?

4. What if they have actual black friday deals this year? Last year had no discounts or games bundled.

 

You are once again making definitive claims without having any info to base them on.

it's just what i expect to happen and why, my prediction. As for mario is released the last 2-3 days october, so it should carried into november. they will probably drop the price to 250$ or bundle a game, which i don't expect to offer a huge boost.

 

I'm sorry but a month with no deals they sold around 400K more than any other month aside from launch and holidays and your calling that disappointing. Without a price cut it still did amazingly well and had the Switch been £249 in November it very likely would have outsold ps4 & xbox



zorg1000 said:
Hiku said:

Well how about this then?
Rather than only using ambiguous terms like 'destroying' in sales related topics, we try to specify what we mean exactly.

This is pretty much how every argument with him happens, he makes these exaggerated claims like "Switch will fall off a cliff" or "Smash wont be that big" and many posts later clarifies that he actually meant "Switch will be flat YOY" and "Smash will sell under 12 million".

And yet the same cast of characters repeatedly turns out to argue with this one person for several pages which I have to scroll through to find anything interesting, all of which will probably keep being brought up in other threads as though it were VGC's personal version of Groundhog Day.  Yay.



pokoko said:
zorg1000 said:

This is pretty much how every argument with him happens, he makes these exaggerated claims like "Switch will fall off a cliff" or "Smash wont be that big" and many posts later clarifies that he actually meant "Switch will be flat YOY" and "Smash will sell under 12 million".

And yet the same cast of characters repeatedly turns out to argue with this one person for several pages which I have to scroll through to find anything interesting, all of which will probably keep being brought up in other threads as though it were VGC's personal version of Groundhog Day.  Yay.

Well, as long as he's here we're going to have someone to dispute his claims.



quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

We also had people saying PS4 would be above last year (over 20m) while Switch would be flat (13m).

 

But no, lets just pretend like that never happened and everybody thought Switch would destroy PS4.

this is still a very real possibility. 

For the 20M PS4, maybe.

For only 13M Switches, dream on. Switch is in front already, and for most of the last year Switch numbers where low due to lack of supply. Switch does almost 200k weekly right now despite a drought of high-profile games this winter and spring while back then it was closer to 120-130k



quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

It looks like a convenient threshold to define a lead as low as 800k as 'destroying', because that's still only 15%. 15% happens to be same as the PS4's lead in the month of March. It's doubtful that many people would say that the PS4 destroyed Switch and Xbox One this month.

More importantly though, you are falling into your habit of goalpost moving and backpedaling when you are wrong about something. That doesn't help your case at all. It's also only 40 of 86 predictions that have Switch ahead of the PS4 by at least 800k units. Furthermore, a gap of 800k units can be achieved in a single month, so in theory two consoles can split NPD wins for the first ten months of the year and one console can still come out with a lead if the console manufacturer in question goes to town with games, bundles and offers in the holiday season; therefore your conclusion that the ResetEra predictions must expect Switch to win nearly every month doesn't make much sense either.

The relevant question at this point is how deep you want to dig your hole.

I guess anything is possible no matter how unlikely it is, but switch will get destroyed in november again this year.  

Based on what exactly you saying that!? Main reason why PS4/XB1 sold much better than Switch last November was beacuse they had huge price cut for Black Friday ($100+) while Switch didnt had any bundle. So, for this year we dont know much big price cut any consoles will have and what big November game for Switch will be, so I relly dont see how you can say that "switch will get destroyed in November again this year", again its sounds like wishful thinking than anything else.

 

Shadow1980 said:

Well, I got home earlier than I thought, but I'm pretty tired. I'll post a few charts now, and some more tomorrow evening if I'm feeling up to it:

It's interesting that PS4 is YOU down for all 1st 3 months while XB1 had two best and one second best first 3 months from launch.