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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 14): Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - April 2 - 8, 2018

fatslob-:O on 11 April 2018
MasonADC said:

They'll have a game for August, I'm not sure why you are assuming they won't. Octopath is way bigger than I am sestuna or Lost Sphear. Also, Yokai Watch 4 has a pretty good chance of a July release. 

Why assume that they will when they haven't announced anything for August ? Octopath looks like it has the same production values as those titles do ... 

Edit: And if what you said was also true about YW4 then why not announce a release date too with it since it's 3 months around the corner for release ?



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MasonADC on 11 April 2018
fatslob-:O said:
MasonADC said:

They'll have a game for August, I'm not sure why you are assuming they won't. Octopath is way bigger than I am sestuna or Lost Sphear. Also, Yokai Watch 4 has a pretty good chance of a July release. 

Why assume that they will when they haven't announced anything for August ? Octopath looks like it has the same production values as those titles do ... 

Edit: And if what you said was also true about YW4 then why not announce a release date too with it since it's 3 months around the corner for release ?

It's much more likely that a company that has games that are scheduled for this year and hasn't had e3 yet will have an August game instead of skipping it. Yoshi will most likely be August. Just look at Octopath compared to the two games that you mentioned, Octopath clearly has a higher production value. Nintendo will also be advertising the game unlike with the other two. Plans might just not be final for Yokai, but all main titles have released in July I believe



zorg1000 on 11 April 2018
fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

It will probably drop below 40k for a couple weeks but it will likely rebound with the releases of those games you think havent been relevant for quite a while.

Mario Tennis Open sold 360k & Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D sold 420k when they released for 3DS in 2012/2013.

The only releases in these franchises since then were exclusive to Wii U so they really arent anything to go by.

For just a couple of weeks ? I would doubt so since there's no busy releases to be had in May and August ... (so that leaves Mario Tennis Aces and Octopath Traveler but that's hardly a high end project despite the hype for it around these boards since I would put it in a similar tier to SE's smaller project like I am Sestuna or Lost Sphear) 

DKCR on the Wii originally sold over 1M units but it's 3D rerelease did less than half of that. At most what we can expect from DKCTF's rerelease is it doing similar numbers to it's original release much like Hyrule Warriors Legends on 3DS compared to it's WII U counterpart ... 

Japan is falling apart in the dedicated gaming industry ... 

Yes, just for a couple weeks, you are being way too pessimistic.

Octopath will sell far better than Setsuna/Sphear, think more along the lines of the Bravely games.

Tropical Freeze will match the Wii U version at the least, not the most. Its far more likely to perform at a similar level as Returns 3D.

 

Basically each month has a medium sized game that will likely sell 250k+.

April-Nintendo Labo

May-Tropical Freeze

June-Mario Tennis

July-Octopath Traveler

 

On top of that there are a handful of potential 50k+ sellers like Snack World, Dark Souls, Sushi Striker, YS VIII, Captain Toad, etc. that will release in that time frame.

 

There isnt any need to be "concerned" about Switch sales this Spring/early Summer, it will likely have a handful of sub-40k weeks in there but it will also have a handful of weeks above 40k so it evens out.

From week 15-week 28, Switch averaged 35k/week last year. Worst case scenario is Switch being flat YOY in that tine period.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

fatslob-:O on 11 April 2018
Mar1217 said:

You must be kidding ...

*snip*

You only wish, there's nothing in Octopath that suggests it would rival a AAA game or a low budget indie title so I put it on the same level as those games I've mentioned before ... (their other works such as Left Alive, Dragon Quest Builders 2 and even their Secret of Mana remake are arguably on a higher level)

MasonADC said:

It's much more likely that a company that has games that are scheduled for this year and hasn't had e3 yet will have an August game instead of skipping it. Yoshi will most likely be August. Just look at Octopath compared to the two games that you mentioned, Octopath clearly has a higher production value. Nintendo will also be advertising the game unlike with the other two. Plans might just not be final for Yokai, but all main titles have released in July I believe

Like ? 

And I don't EVER remember Level-5 attending to E3 so why would a western centric event matter to them ? (it's usually the localization representatives from OTHER publishers that attend to E3 but it's not them who would divulge info about a project before Level-5 does) 



Medisti on 11 April 2018

Man. I really thought MH:W would break 2 million retail (not counting all the digital sales) last week, but it still hasn't this week. Next week, though.



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zorg1000 on 11 April 2018
fatslob-:O said:
MasonADC said:

They'll have a game for August, I'm not sure why you are assuming they won't. Octopath is way bigger than I am sestuna or Lost Sphear. Also, Yokai Watch 4 has a pretty good chance of a July release. 

Why assume that they will when they haven't announced anything for August ? Octopath looks like it has the same production values as those titles do ... 

Edit: And if what you said was also true about YW4 then why not announce a release date too with it since it's 3 months around the corner for release ?

If you havent noticed, Nintendo has been making alot of announcements just a few months before release.

1, 2 Switch-announced Jan, released March

Mario Kart Deluxe-announced Jan, released April

ARMS-announced Jan, released June

Pokken DX-announced June, released Sept

Mario Rabbids-announced June, released Aug

Bayonetta 2-announced Dec, released Feb

Tropical Freeze-announced Jan, releases May

Hyrule Warriors-announced Jan, released March

Labo-announced Jan, releases April

Mario Tennis-announced Jan, releases June

Captain Toad-announced March, releases July

 

No point in assuming a 1st party game will or wont release in August.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MasonADC on 11 April 2018
fatslob-:O said: 
MasonADC said:

It's much more likely that a company that has games that are scheduled for this year and hasn't had e3 yet will have an August game instead of skipping it. Yoshi will most likely be August. Just look at Octopath compared to the two games that you mentioned, Octopath clearly has a higher production value. Nintendo will also be advertising the game unlike with the other two. Plans might just not be final for Yokai, but all main titles have released in July I believe

Like ? 

And I don't EVER remember Level-5 attending to E3 so why would a western centric event matter to them ? (it's usually the localization representatives from OTHER publishers that attend to E3 but it's not them who would divulge info about a project before Level-5 does) 

I wasn't implying that Yokai would be shown at e3 for a July release. When I said company, I meant Nintendo in General. Like someone before mention,octopath is more on the levels of Bravely, and I could easily see it selling 500k like the original bravely in Japan



fatslob-:O on 11 April 2018
zorg1000 said:

Yes, just for a couple weeks, you are being way too pessimistic.

Octopath will sell far better than Setsuna/Sphear, think more along the lines of the Bravely games.

Tropical Freeze will match the Wii U version at the least, not the most. Its far more likely to perform at a similar level as Returns 3D.

 

Basically each month has a medium sized game that will likely sell 250k+.

April-Nintendo Labo

May-Tropical Freeze

June-Mario Tennis

July-Octopath Traveler

On top of that there are a handful of potential 50k+ sellers like Snack World, Dark Souls, Sushi Striker, YS VIII, Captain Toad, etc. that will release in that time frame.

There isnt any need to be "concerned" about Switch sales this Spring/early Summer, it will likely have a handful of sub-40k weeks in there but it will also have a handful of weeks above 40k so it evens out.

From week 15-week 28, Switch averaged 35k/week last year. Worst case scenario is Switch being flat YOY in that tine period.

I'm not convinced about Octopath Traveler and the pre-order numbers for those games don't look very good either for those upcoming games along with Donkey Kong ... (DKCTF hasn't even entered COMG pre-order charts and it's just around 3 weeks away from release so selling as close as the original would be a relatively good result for it)



LipeJJ on 11 April 2018

Star "Allize" is showing some great legs already. I think it will eventually hit a million in Japan.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

zorg1000 on 11 April 2018
fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

Yes, just for a couple weeks, you are being way too pessimistic.

Octopath will sell far better than Setsuna/Sphear, think more along the lines of the Bravely games.

Tropical Freeze will match the Wii U version at the least, not the most. Its far more likely to perform at a similar level as Returns 3D.

 

Basically each month has a medium sized game that will likely sell 250k+.

April-Nintendo Labo

May-Tropical Freeze

June-Mario Tennis

July-Octopath Traveler

On top of that there are a handful of potential 50k+ sellers like Snack World, Dark Souls, Sushi Striker, YS VIII, Captain Toad, etc. that will release in that time frame.

There isnt any need to be "concerned" about Switch sales this Spring/early Summer, it will likely have a handful of sub-40k weeks in there but it will also have a handful of weeks above 40k so it evens out.

From week 15-week 28, Switch averaged 35k/week last year. Worst case scenario is Switch being flat YOY in that tine period.

I'm not convinced about Octopath Traveler and the pre-order numbers for those games don't look very good either for those upcoming games along with Donkey Kong ... (DKCTF hasn't even entered COMG pre-order charts and it's just around 3 weeks away from release so selling as close as the original would be a relatively good result for it)

Your mistake is relying so much on COMG pre-orders.

Kirby Star Allies had 2/3 the points of Triple Deluxe yet slightly outsold it.

The Switch version of Attack on Titan had more points yet was outsold by the PS4 version.

COMG is a nice tool just like Amazon rankings but they dont always paint the whole picture.

 

As for Donkey Kong not showing yet, Returns 3DS hadnt at this point either, it showed up with 12 days left.

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 11 April 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.