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Forums - Nintendo - Will the Switch outsell the Wii?

Miyamotoo on 29 March 2018
Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

 

-snip-

 

Wii U had very good launch, maybe even better than even Wii launch, it shipped around 3m at launch from 20. November to 31. December.

Thanks that's an interesting read, it seems back in January 2013, while they were moving towards unified software, they still planned to have two separate devices for home and portable. "What we mean by integrating platforms is not integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine."

Another interesting statement: "we are saying is that we would like to integrate software development methods, operating systems, and built-in software and software assets for each platform so that we can use them across different machines. This means that if we manage to integrate our platforms successfully, we may in fact be able to make more platforms."

It's very interesting to see that the original plan for unification was to have many systems alongside each other, rather than just the one we have at this current time.

So the change from having multiple devices may have been due to the WiiU failure, maybe not. But you're right that the unification was in motion too early to have been all a reaction to the WiiU's sales.

 

As a side note, no the WiiU did not have a "very good launch", and certainly not better than the Wii. Consoles sell a lot better at launch then they used to, compared to other modern launches the WiiU wasn't good.

ps4 - 4.4m
XBO - 3.0m
WiiU - 2.2m

They still didnt sure about what exalty they will do, but they did had some plans for some kind of integrated platform only 2 months after Wii U launch, and they said that will be possible because technology, and they later did said they still dont know there will have just one or more devices, and offocurse later quotes were pointing more about one unifed platform.

Nintendo shiped 3m Wii U consoles at launch, and Wii U was sold out, fact is that Wii U had quite good launch, terible sales started after launch, but even than Nintendo thouth that Wii U will start selling much better.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/gaming/2012/11/26/nintendo-wii-u-sales/1727191/



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Barkley on 29 March 2018
Miyamotoo said: 

Nintendo shiped 3m Wii U consoles at launch, and Wii U was sold out, fact is that Wii U had quite good launch, terible sales started after launch, but even than Nintendo thouth that Wii U will start selling much better.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/gaming/2012/11/26/nintendo-wii-u-sales/1727191/

They did not sell 3m units to consumers in 2012... All that article says is they were "often" sold-out at stores... in America... one week after launch.



zorg1000 on 29 March 2018
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

DS

D/P-17.67m

B/W-15.64m

HG/SS-12.72m

B2/W2-7.81m

Total-53.84m

 

3DS

X/Y-16.26m

S/M-16.05m

OR/AS-13.94m

US/UM-7.17m

Total-53.42m

 

Keep in mind 3DS titles are still selling, i dont really see how you can say its a decline.

And in relation to the OP, this proves that sales of Pokemon or any Nintendo exclusive does not garuntee higher hardware sales. Despite the DS more than doubling the 3DS in sales, it sells about the same (or maybe less) Pokemon games. You tend to find that Nintendos main stay exclusives can sell their expected amount within 40-50 million hardware units.

Of course you could say that both Zelda and Mario on the Switch are set to be the best selling entries in the franchise. This is true, but that's more down to mindshare, same happened to many Sony games on PS4. I don't doubt God Of War 4 will vastly outsell God Of War 1 2 or 3 just the same. The only ones whos franchises are on decline are MS. This is, again, down to mindshare.

What you are saying is true but not really relevant to what i said. I was just pointing out that Pokemon is not declining like Faltslob claimed. We can even add in the GBA titles and it will show that Pokemon has been extremely consistent for over 15 years.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo on 29 March 2018
Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said: 

Nintendo shiped 3m Wii U consoles at launch, and Wii U was sold out, fact is that Wii U had quite good launch, terible sales started after launch, but even than Nintendo thouth that Wii U will start selling much better.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/gaming/2012/11/26/nintendo-wii-u-sales/1727191/

They did not sell 3m units to consumers in 2012... All that article says is they were "often" sold-out at stores... in America... one week after launch.

They shipped 3m and that's ofical number, Nintendo always using ship number, Wii U is currently at 13.5m shiped consoles also.



LethalP on 29 March 2018
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:

And in relation to the OP, this proves that sales of Pokemon or any Nintendo exclusive does not garuntee higher hardware sales. Despite the DS more than doubling the 3DS in sales, it sells about the same (or maybe less) Pokemon games. You tend to find that Nintendos main stay exclusives can sell their expected amount within 40-50 million hardware units.

Of course you could say that both Zelda and Mario on the Switch are set to be the best selling entries in the franchise. This is true, but that's more down to mindshare, same happened to many Sony games on PS4. I don't doubt God Of War 4 will vastly outsell God Of War 1 2 or 3 just the same. The only ones whos franchises are on decline are MS. This is, again, down to mindshare.

What you are saying is true but not really relevant to what i said. I was just pointing out that Pokemon is not declining like Faltslob claimed. We can even add in the GBA titles and it will show that Pokemon has been extremely consistent for over 15 years.

Just an attempt to put the conversation back on track with the OP. A way of explaining why the Switch isn't going to sell at the rate of the Wii and DS. Yet I still think the Switch could sell 100 million over a longer time period.



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Barkley on 29 March 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Barkley said:

They did not sell 3m units to consumers in 2012... All that article says is they were "often" sold-out at stores... in America... one week after launch.

They shipped 3m and that's ofical number, Nintendo always using ship number, Wii U is currently at 13.5m shiped consoles also.

Which is a terrible metric to gauge whether a launch is "very good" or not. Because it doesn't matter how many you ship if they don't sell. It's fair enough using Shipped for LTD sales, but for a launch... use consumer sales. They could have shipped 5m in 2012, wouldn't have made the launch any better. The WiiU did not have a good launch.



0D0 on 29 March 2018

We can all forget Wii u, because Nintendo home console business is over. Switch is a handheld :P and we need to look at handheld performance. Switch has everything to surpass 3DS and Pokemon on Switch may be one of the most anticipated gaming experiences ever. I believe Pokemon may drive at least 20m Switch units easy peasy



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Podings on 29 March 2018

Entirely depends on whether the can make them fast enough, whether they can get a better hold of the European market, and whether they can crack their way in to Brazil and China.

Also to a degree depends on whether they convince parents that kids all need a Switch each, instead of needing to share one.



Miyamotoo on 29 March 2018
Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

They shipped 3m and that's ofical number, Nintendo always using ship number, Wii U is currently at 13.5m shiped consoles also.

Which is a terrible metric to gauge whether a launch is "very good" or not. Because it doesn't matter how many you ship if they don't sell. It's fair enough using Shipped for LTD sales, but for a launch... use consumer sales. They could have shipped 5m in 2012, wouldn't have made the launch any better. The WiiU did not have a good launch.

Agree, but Wii U launch was good or mediocre (not great or bad), in any case, terrible sales started after solid launch, and thats whats important in this talk.

http://www.ign.com/articles/2013/01/11/how-successful-was-the-wii-u-launch

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 29 March 2018

The_Liquid_Laser on 29 March 2018
Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The Switch will become the best selling console of all time. However you won't be able to tell it by 2018's performance. 2018 will be mostly ports and a few new 1st party titles here and there. In 2019, there will be Pokemon and more 3rd party exclusives. That is when Switch will really start to take off.

Well, you constant confidence is baffling. We don't know what might happen mid-generation. First impressions wearing off, PS5 and XB2 coming and stuff like that. It might go either way.

Anyways, 150M (PS2) is a pretty hefty goal. If you keep selling this point with such confidence, you sound more and more like JohnLucas.

I don't know who JohnLucas is.

All I can tell you is that I feel like I personally have a good track record when looking at this stuff.  I can tell that most people on this site focus on numbers and regression curves and so on.  There is nothing wrong with that, but this early in a console's life it is more useful to look at the console's strategy and how well that strategy is implemented.  I mean that is all the companies themselves can do anyway.  When they design a console, they don't have numbers as to how well it will sell.  All they can do is follow a certain strategy and see how it works out.

I could tell the Wii U was going to be a dud right when it came out, and I was pretty sure XB1 would have the same story.  They just had terrible strategies.  The Wii U in particular was a complete contradiction of the Wii.  The "Wii" strategy was to bring people together for local multiplayer (as the name implies).  The "Wii U" strategy was to try to get people to think it was like the Wii, but it was really about "you", (i.e. single player games).  The console itself was a contradiction, not to mention that the game pad was a dumb idea.

The Switch, on the other hand, is a smart strategy.  It is basically to use all of Nintendo's prowess in handheld gaming to invade home console gaming.  Not only can people "Switch" from home to console gaming, but they expect to get people to "Switch" from Sony to Nintendo.  Furthermore I think this strategy will succeed.  Nintendo has always won the handheld market.  I expect now they will win both handheld and home in one console.  That is where all of the sales will come from.



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