Will the Switch outsell the Wii?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Mnementh said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:
The Switch will become the best selling console of all time. However you won't be able to tell it by 2018's performance. 2018 will be mostly ports and a few new 1st party titles here and there. In 2019, there will be Pokemon and more 3rd party exclusives. That is when Switch will really start to take off.

Well, you constant confidence is baffling. We don't know what might happen mid-generation. First impressions wearing off, PS5 and XB2 coming and stuff like that. It might go either way.

Anyways, 150M (PS2) is a pretty hefty goal. If you keep selling this point with such confidence, you sound more and more like JohnLucas.

I don't know who JohnLucas is.

All I can tell you is that I feel like I personally have a good track record when looking at this stuff.  I can tell that most people on this site focus on numbers and regression curves and so on.  There is nothing wrong with that, but this early in a console's life it is more useful to look at the console's strategy and how well that strategy is implemented.  I mean that is all the companies themselves can do anyway.  When they design a console, they don't have numbers as to how well it will sell.  All they can do is follow a certain strategy and see how it works out.

I could tell the Wii U was going to be a dud right when it came out, and I was pretty sure XB1 would have the same story.  They just had terrible strategies.  The Wii U in particular was a complete contradiction of the Wii.  The "Wii" strategy was to bring people together for local multiplayer (as the name implies).  The "Wii U" strategy was to try to get people to think it was like the Wii, but it was really about "you", (i.e. single player games).  The console itself was a contradiction, not to mention that the game pad was a dumb idea.

The Switch, on the other hand, is a smart strategy.  It is basically to use all of Nintendo's prowess in handheld gaming to invade home console gaming.  Not only can people "Switch" from home to console gaming, but they expect to get people to "Switch" from Sony to Nintendo.  Furthermore I think this strategy will succeed.  Nintendo has always won the handheld market.  I expect now they will win both handheld and home in one console.  That is where all of the sales will come from.