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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

The points themselves don't indicate anything. Thus far it's the ratio of the points between the 3 consoles that seems to match up relatively closely to NPD results.



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10/02/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 40 (-22) - 399.99$ - October 26th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 44 (-4) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 47 (-4) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 57 (-3) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 73 (+10) - 282.88$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 87 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 44 points (-3) ; XBO : 28 points (+10) ; NS : 115 + 58 + 14 = 187 points (+2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (+9) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 (+7) - 299.99$
3 (+5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 33 (+63) - 399.99$ - October 26th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+4) - 299.99$
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 39 (-4) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 48 (+2) - 299.99$
7 (R) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 49 (R) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
8 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 51 (+4) - 499.99$
9 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 57 (+4) - 299.99$
10 (R) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 64 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 140 + 74 = 214 points (+28) ; XBO : 56 + 50 + 44 = 150 points (+12) ; NS : 110 + 80 + 37 = 227 points (+59)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-1) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 10 (+1) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 13 (-1) - 399.99$ - November 16th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 19 (-1) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 35 (+6) - 399.99$ - October 26th
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 47 (-) - Sold out
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 48 (-) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 49 (-) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (-) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 88 (-6) - 299.99$
12 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 121 (+18) - 499.99$ - October 15th
13 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 126 (-1) - 299.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 181 (-28) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

15 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 181 (-40) - 499.99$ - October 15th

PS4 : 195 + 64 = 259 points (-6) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 165 + 38 + 10 = 213 points (-19)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 408.0 points (-5.6) ; Month Average : 347.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 337.0 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 331.1 points/day ; 0.95 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 68.1 points (+13.5) ; Month Average : 204.1 points/day ; 0.59 (-0.01)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 514.6 points (-2.8) ; Month Average : 508.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 408.0 points (-5.6) ; Month Average : 347.3 points/day ; 0.68 (-)
3 - XBO : 107.3 points (+13.5) ; Month Average : 243.3 points/day ; 0.48 (-0.01)



10/03/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 37 (+7) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+6) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 63 (-6) - 299.99$
5 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 70 (+17) - 299.99$
6 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 72 (-32) - 399.99$ - October 26th
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 80 (-7) - 282.88$


Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 38 points (-6) ; XBO : 21 points (-7) ; NS : 115 + 70 + 31 = 216 points (+29)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 17 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 27 (-6) - 299.99$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 33 (+6) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 38 (-5) - 399.99$ - October 26th
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 46 (-10) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 52 (-4) - 299.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 58 (-7) - 499.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 71 (-14) - 299.99$
9 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 72 (-23) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 79 (-15) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 130 + 86 = 216 points (+2) ; XBO : 49 + 43 + 30 = 122 points (-28) ; NS : 98 + 60 + 22 = 180 points (-47)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 12 (-2) - 399.99$ - November 16th
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 13 (-) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 15 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 23 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 35 (-) - 399.99$ - October 26th
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 41 (+6) - Sold out
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 42 (+6) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 43 (+6) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 44 (+6) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 80 (+8) - 299.99$
12 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 99 (+27) - 299.99$
13 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 111 (+10) - 499.99$ - October 15th
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 197 (-16) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 72 = 247 points (-12) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 155 + 52 + 2 = 209 points (-4)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 417.8 points (+9.8) ; Month Average : 349.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 320.6 points (-16.4) ; Month Average : 330.8 points/day ; 0.95 (-)
3 - XBO : 53.6 points (-14.5) ; Month Average : 199.4 points/day ; 0.57 (-0.02)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 498.2 points (-16.4) ; Month Average : 508.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 417.8 points (+9.8) ; Month Average : 349.5 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 92.8 points (-14.5) ; Month Average : 238.6 points/day ; 0.47 (-0.01)



10/04/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 18 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 37 (-) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (+2) - 299.00$
4 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb - 62 (+18) - TP
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 68 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 74 (-11) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 72 (-32) - 399.99$ - October 26th

PS4 : 27 points (-11) ; XBO : 39 points (+18) ; NS : 125 + 74 + 33 = 232 points (+16)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 17 (+16) - 399.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 35 (+3) - 399.99$ - October 26th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (+8) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 46 (+6) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 55 (+3) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 71 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 75 (-3) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 77 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 140 + 130 = 270 points (+54) ; XBO : 60 + 46 + 30 = 136 points (+14) ; NS : 102 + 76 + 24 = 202 points (+22)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (+1) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 12 (-) - 399.99$ - November 16th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 15 (-2) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black -22 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 27 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 30 (+5) - 399.99$ - October 26th
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (+5) - Sold out
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 43 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 44 (-1) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 45 (-1) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 91 (-11) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 108 (-9) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 115 (-4) - 499.99$ - October 15th

Out of Top 100 :

14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 197 (-16) - 299.99$

PS4 : 160 + 60 = 220 points (-27) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 145 + 47 = 192 points (-17)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 418.0 points (+0.2) ; Month Average : 351.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 295.6 points (-25.0) ; Month Average : 329.7 points/day ; 0.94 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 75.9 points (+22.3) ; Month Average : 195.7 points/day ; 0.56 (-0.01)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 473.2 points (-25.0) ; Month Average : 507.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 418.0 points (+0.2) ; Month Average : 351.6 points/day ; 0.69 (-)
3 - XBO : 115.1 points (+22.3) ; Month Average : 234.9 points/day ; 0.46 (-0.01)



So without the Spiderman bundle preorders, Switch would have won another month according to the statistics here? Although to be fair just because of the Fortnite bundle releasing the last day of the NPD month.

Next month should be a monstrous win for the Switch with the Smash bundle, I don't think Sony and Microsoft can counter those points



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Symbios63 said:
09/30/18 :

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 514.8 points (-39.6) ; Month Average : 508.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 412.2 points (+42.8) ; Month Average : 342.9 points/day ; 0.67 (-)
3 - XBO : 99.0 points (+9.1) ; Month Average : 253.2 points/day ; 0.50 (-0.01)

Yep was predictable that the PS4 would win September.



10/05/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 24 (-6) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 40 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 43 (-6) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 48 (+20) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 77 (-3) - 299.99$
6 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb - 84 (-22) - TP

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 24 points (-3) ; XBO : 17 points (-22) ; NS : 104 + 72 + 56 = 232 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (-6) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 24 (-7) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 27 (-2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 37 (-2) - 399.99$ - October 26th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (-3) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 47 (-1) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 53 (+2) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 64 (+7) - 299.99$
9 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 74 (+3) - 299.99$
10 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 94 (-19) - 399.99$ - November 2nd


Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 110 + 104 = 214 points (-56) ; XBO : 58 + 48 + 37 = 143 points (+7) ; NS : 98 + 70 + 27 = 195 points (-7)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (-2) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 18 (-6) - 399.99$ - November 16th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 19 (-4) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black -29 (-7) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 36 (-6) - 399.99$ - October 26th
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 40 (-13) - 299.99$
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 41 (-5) - Sold out
8 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 55 (-12) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 56 (-14) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 58 (-13) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 99 (-8) - 299.99$
12 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 113 (-5) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 121 (-6) - 499.99$ - October 15th

Out of Top 100 :

14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 197 (-16) - 299.99$

PS4 : 140 + 52 = 192 points (-28) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 115 + 44 = 159 points (-33)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 383.6 points (-34.4) ; Month Average : 352.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 254.0 points (-41.6) ; Month Average : 327.5 points/day ; 0.93 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 54.9 points (-21.0) ; Month Average : 191.6 points/day ; 0.54 (-0.02)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 473.2 points (-41.6) ; Month Average : 505.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 383.6 points (-34.4) ; Month Average : 352.5 points/day ; 0.70 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 115.1 points (-21.0) ; Month Average : 230.8 points/day ; 0.46 (-)



Everything is going down. Calm before the storm.



10/06/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 32 (-8) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 46 (-3) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 48 (-8) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 52 (-4) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 79 (+5) - TP
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 81 (-4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 20 points (-4) ; XBO : 22 points (+5) ; NS : 88 + 60 + 49 = 197 points (-35)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-2) - 299.99$
2 (+7) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 25 (+49) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 30 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 40 (-16) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 51 (-10) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 53 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 54 (-17) - 399.99$ - October 26th
8 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 58 (-11) - 299.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 72 (-8) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

10 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 94 (-19) - 399.99$ - November 2nd

PS4 : 106 + 72 = 178 points (-36) ; XBO : 48 + 43 + 29 = 120 points (-23) ; NS : 102 + 92 + 50 = 244 points (+49)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 5 (-2) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 17 (+1) - 399.99$ - November 16th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 18 (+1) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black -22 (+7) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 32 (+4) - 399.99$ - October 26th
6 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 36 (+5) - Sold out
7 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 50 (+5) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 51 (+5) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 52 (+6) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 61 (-21) - 299.99$
11 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 101 (-2) - 299.99$
12 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 119 (+2) - 499.99$ - October 15th
13 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 145 (-32) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 160 + 50 = 210 points (+18) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 90 + 28 = 118 points (-41)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 324.4 points (-59.2) ; Month Average : 351.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 261.6 points (+7.6) ; Month Average : 325.6 points/day ; 0.93 (-)
3 - XBO : 54.1 points (-0.8) ; Month Average : 187.6 points/day ; 0.53 (-0.01)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 439.2 points (+7.6) ; Month Average : 503.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 324.4 points (-59.2) ; Month Average : 351.7 points/day ; 0.70 (-)
3 - XBO : 93.3 points (-0.8) ; Month Average : 226.8 points/day ; 0.45 (-0.01)

Last September update. Summary incoming with graphs.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
So without the Spiderman bundle preorders, Switch would have won another month according to the statistics here? Although to be fair just because of the Fortnite bundle releasing the last day of the NPD month.

Next month should be a monstrous win for the Switch with the Smash bundle, I don't think Sony and Microsoft can counter those points

You talking about November? November will be interesting month and I think it will be strong but close month in any case, PS4 will take October while Switch December.