In progress NPD predicting tool

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 12 September 2018

Madword said:
At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...

Yes and no.

There is one important thing not taken into account in those charts, PS4 has something like 200 points/day (don't remember the exact number, it is somewhere in the thread) due to Spiderman preorders from previous months.

I will consider 4 scenarios for September sales 1) All numbers - previous month preorders, 2) All numbers + previous month preorders, 3) All numbers - PS4 million - previous month preorders, 4) All numbers - PS4 million + previous month preorders.

I know this is a bit difficult to follow but best method will be chosen based on NPD data and hopefully, we will have only one set of data in the future. If I had to guess right now, I would chose number 4.

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peachbuggy on 12 September 2018

Symbios63 said:

Madword said:
At the moment I am believing the first chart, just because I dont see PS4 being just behind MS in September... at the very least it would have a good gap between the two because of Spiderman...

Yes and no.

There is one important thing not taken into account in those charts, PS4 has something like 200 points/day (don't remember the exact number, it is somewhere in the thread) due to Spiderman preorders from previous months.

I will consider 4 scenarios for September sales 1) All numbers - previous month preorders, 2) All numbers + previous month preorders, 3) All numbers - PS4 million - previous month preorders, 4) All numbers - PS4 million + previous month preorders.

I know this is a bit difficult to follow but best method will be chosen based on NPD data and hopefully, we will have only one set of data in the future. If I had to guess right now, I would chose number 4.

Option 4 is definitely the best imo.

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Miyamotoo on 12 September 2018

PS4 will dominate September.

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Symbios63 on 12 September 2018

09/12/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 44 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 45 (-5) - 282.88$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 57 (-8) - 599.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 82 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 44 + 19 = 63 points (-10) ; XBO : 62 points (-10) ; NS : 110 + 64 = 174 points (-16)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 13 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 26 (-) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 30 (-) - 499.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 58 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 205 + 100 + 43 = 348 points (-) ; XBO : 150 + 92 = 242 points (-) ; NS : 200 + 155 = 355 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 1 (+3) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 4 (+1) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 12 (+20) - Sold out
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 22 (R) - Sold Out Online
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 34 (-1) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 35 (-) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (-) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (-5) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 51 (-26) - 299.99$
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 54 (-2) - 299.99$
10 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 74 (+2) - 299.99$
11 (+1) - XBox One X Scorpio - 120 (+55) - 499.99$
12 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 153 (-47) - 499.99$
13 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 176 (+1) - 299.99$
14 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 200 (-46) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 160 + 130 + 125 + 125 + 98 = 823 points (+208) ; XBO : 100 + 41 + 24 = 165 points (-49) ; NS : 78 + 13 = 91 points (+3)

Overall (Today, all numbers included) :

1 - PS4 : 943.0 points (+200.0) ; Month Average : 901.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 341.9 points (-74.1) ; Month Average : 361.9 points/day ; 0.40 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 301.2 points (-9.8) ; Month Average : 308.0 points/day ; 0.34 (-)

Overall (minus PS4 million) :

1 - PS4 : 378.0 points (+150.0) ; Month Average : 371.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 341.9 points (-74.1) ; Month Average : 361.9 points/day ; 0.97 (-0.01)
3 - NS : 301.2 points (-9.8) ; Month Average : 308.0 points/day ; 0.83 (-)

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PortisheadBiscuit on 12 September 2018

Gamestop the only retailer with Pokémon Switch bundle pre-orders?

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Bofferbrauer2 on 12 September 2018

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Gamestop the only retailer with Pokémon Switch bundle pre-orders?

The only one tracked at least, dunno about Target, Walmart etc...

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 13 September 2018

09/13/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 44 (+1) - 282.88$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 45 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 59 (-2) - 585.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 88 (-6) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 42 + 13 = 55 points (-8) ; XBO : 64 points (+2) ; NS : 115 + 62 = 177 points (+3)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-37) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 41 (-38) - 299.99$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 42 (-16) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 58 (-46) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 60 (-47) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 69 (-11) - 399.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 72 (-42) - 499.99$
8 (N) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 75 (N) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

PS4 : 74 + 68 + 32 = 174 points (-174) ; XBO : 41 + 29 + 26 = 96 points (-146) ; NS : 70 + 43 = 113 points (-242)

- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 5 (-1) - 399.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 7 (-6) - 399.99$
3 (-) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 13 (-1) - Sold out
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman - 22 (-) - Sold Out Online
5 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 36 (-2) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
6 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 37 (-2) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
7 (-) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-2) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 46 (+8) - 299.99$
9 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 76 (-2) - 299.99$
10 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 89 (-38) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 124 (-4) - 499.99$
12 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 177 (-1) - 299.99$
13 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 186 (+14) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

12 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 - 153 (-47) - 499.99$

PS4 : 180 + 160 + 125 + 120 + 120 + 106 = 811 points (-12) ; XBO : 62 + 39 = 101 points (-64) ; NS : 76 + 12 = 88 points (-3)

I will complete the update tomorrow.