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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Madword on 27 July 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
Mbolibombo said:

Pretty much agree with what you are saying here. I do think that PS4 will have a strong Oct with both RDR2 and Spiderman fresh and winning it comfortably but I believe this time around that Switch takes both November and December, Pokemon is going leave it's mark in November and I cant see anyone but Switch taking December.

Curious to see if Nintendo releases a new bundle this season though.. should see at least Smash or Pokemon, maybe both.

Yeah with Spidey and RDR2 I can't see Sony losing Sept or Oct. The reason I gave them Nov is all they had last year was a $199 PS4 for 1 week and it did RECORD numbers. So if they extend that $199 deal longer during the Holidays along with the RDR2 bundle or a Spiderman(if it is received well)bundle then I can see them having another big Nov as well. But with Pokemon Let's Go even if it is not a core title it will definitely push the Switch up. It will be close between the two but the deciding factor in my opinion will be the price. Either way they both will have a great Holiday season! And hopefully like last year so does the XB1!

xMetroid said:
Imo, Switch has great chances of taking November. We are already seeing great deals for the console and i'm sure Nintendo will have something for BF. That said, it will also get the first HD pokemon game, which even if it's not the one the core fans are waiting for, it will clearly have a big appeal. We will also be in the Smash hype, many people will take the console during a BF sale just before Smash instead of waiting the day it comes out. We also are finally getting some more "family titles". I think Labo and Mario Party will have some effect during Fall/Holiday season.

Sony will probably have similar deals as last year, don't think they can discount the PS4 more than that this year.

I also agree that Switch has a very good chance at taking Nov thanks to Pokemon. And has the Switch been having deals? I always see it at regular price. But then I have not been looking hard so there probably have been deal though. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a core Pokemon bundle next year! But as I stated above if the PS4 extends that $199 deal past a week this year then that could be the edge for them thanks to price. But it will be close either way I think. I am looking forward to the Holidays!

Im not sure Sony will do a deal or if they do won't extend it... I dont know why I just feel they are keep price as high as they can for as long as they can. Hopefully they drop the price to $199 and keep it at it, and also reduce the price of the pro. I think its time.... but who knows.



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TheBlackNaruto on 27 July 2018
Madword said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Yeah with Spidey and RDR2 I can't see Sony losing Sept or Oct. The reason I gave them Nov is all they had last year was a $199 PS4 for 1 week and it did RECORD numbers. So if they extend that $199 deal longer during the Holidays along with the RDR2 bundle or a Spiderman(if it is received well)bundle then I can see them having another big Nov as well. But with Pokemon Let's Go even if it is not a core title it will definitely push the Switch up. It will be close between the two but the deciding factor in my opinion will be the price. Either way they both will have a great Holiday season! And hopefully like last year so does the XB1!

I also agree that Switch has a very good chance at taking Nov thanks to Pokemon. And has the Switch been having deals? I always see it at regular price. But then I have not been looking hard so there probably have been deal though. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a core Pokemon bundle next year! But as I stated above if the PS4 extends that $199 deal past a week this year then that could be the edge for them thanks to price. But it will be close either way I think. I am looking forward to the Holidays!

Im not sure Sony will do a deal or if they do won't extend it... I dont know why I just feel they are keep price as high as they can for as long as they can. Hopefully they drop the price to $199 and keep it at it, and also reduce the price of the pro. I think its time.... but who knows.

They would be crazy not to do that deal for longer this year along with a nice deal for the Pro as well. I think it will be the perfect time but we will see.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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globalisateur on 27 July 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
Madword said:

Im not sure Sony will do a deal or if they do won't extend it... I dont know why I just feel they are keep price as high as they can for as long as they can. Hopefully they drop the price to $199 and keep it at it, and also reduce the price of the pro. I think its time.... but who knows.

They would be crazy not to do that deal for longer this year along with a nice deal for the Pro as well. I think it will be the perfect time but we will see.

Well, they'd need more stock if they want to make a killer deal like last year. Currently the Pro is completely sold out in US online because of the $50 deal during day of play promotion. I think they can't (or don't want to) produce more PS4 and Pro than their predicted 16 million during the current Fiscal year.

They clearly didn't anticipate the high demand for Pro in US.



TheBlackNaruto on 27 July 2018
globalisateur said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

They would be crazy not to do that deal for longer this year along with a nice deal for the Pro as well. I think it will be the perfect time but we will see.

Well, they'd need more stock if they want to make a killer deal like last year. Currently the Pro is completely sold out in US online because of the $50 deal during day of play promotion. I think they can't (or don't want to) produce more PS4 and Pro than their predicted 16 million during the current Fiscal year.

They clearly didn't anticipate the high demand for Pro in US.

Hopefully they can ramp up stock around that time. Because the demand is definitely there.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Symbios63 on 27 July 2018

07/27/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 29 (+1) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 67 (-3) - 464.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 94 + 34 = 128 points (-1) ; NS : 175 + 98 = 273 points (+2) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 7 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+4) - 299.00$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 11 (+8) - 299.99$
6 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 34 (+29) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 39 (-2) - 499.99$
8 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 63 (-27) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 points (-) ; XBO : 160 + 84 + 74 + 38 = 356 points (+40) ; NS : 205 + 175 = 380 points (+20) ; PS4 (September) : 180 points (+10)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 12 (-9)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 67 (+9) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 84 (+20) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-1) - 299.00$

PS4 : 68 points (+19) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :84 points (-19) ; PS4 (September) : 185 points (-20)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 378.4 points (-13.4) ; Month Average : 448.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 173.6 points (+7.2) ; Month Average : 162.5 points/day ; 0.36 (-)
3 - PS4 : 110.0 points (+19.0) ; Month Average : 150.4 points/day ; 0.34 (-)



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Symbios63 on 28 July 2018

07/28/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 30 (-1) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 64 (+3) - 464.00$
5 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Starter Bundle - 98 (R) - 239.25$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 92 + 37 + 3 = 132 points (+4) ; NS : 165 + 98 = 263 points (-10) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-6) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 19 (-8) - 299.99$
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 22 (-15) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 40 (-1) - 499.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 61 (-27) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 66 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 points (-5) ; XBO : 120 + 72 + 40 + 35 = 267 points (-89) ; NS : 200 + 145 = 345 points (-35) ; PS4 (September) : 108 points (-72)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 12 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 69 (-2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 87 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-1) - 299.00$

PS4 : 64 points (-4) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :82 points (-2) ; PS4 (September) : 185 points (-)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 361.4 points (-17.0) ; Month Average : 444.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 159.0 points (-14.6) ; Month Average : 162.4 points/day ; 0.37 (+0.01)
3 - PS4 : 105.0 points (-5.0) ; Month Average : 148.2 points/day ; 0.33 (-0.01)



Symbios63 on 29 July 2018

07/29/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 25 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 32 (-2) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 72 (-8) - 464.00$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Starter Bundle - 98 (R) - 239.25$

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 88 + 29 = 117 points (-15) ; NS : 165 + 102 = 267 points (+4) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 17 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (-5) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 20 (+2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 41 (-1) - 499.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 61 (+5) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 86 (-25) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 points (-) ; XBO : 130 + 70 + 40 + 15 = 255 points (-12) ; NS : 200 + 120 = 320 points (-25) ; PS4 (September) : 115 points (+7)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 12 (-)
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 79 (+8) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 80 (-11) - 299.00$


Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-1) - 299.00$

PS4 : 72 points (+8) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :72 points (-10) ; PS4 (September) : 185 points (-)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 349.6 points (-11.8) ; Month Average : 439.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 144.6 points (-14.4) ; Month Average : 161.5 points/day ; 0.37 (-)
3 - PS4 : 113.0 points (+8.0) ; Month Average : 146.6 points/day ; 0.33 (-)




globalisateur on 29 July 2018

For July there is going to be a big discrepancy between you predictions and the reality:

- Amazon don't sell PS4s anymore
- There is only one PS4 SKU on Bestbuy and Gamestop (and PS4 SKU is first in both).

Switch will probably win July, but not by a lanslide and XB1 will be last behind PS4.



Symbios63 on 30 July 2018

07/30/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 30 (+2) - 294.69$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 56 (+16) - 464.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 92 + 45 = 137 points (+20) ; NS : 170 + 100 = 270 points (+3) ; PS4 (September) : 0 point (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (+9) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 11 (+6) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 32 (+54) - 499.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 38 (+3) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 44 (+17) - 299.99$
8 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 68 (-48) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 points (+5) ; XBO : 160 + 88 + 76 + 64 = 388 points (+133) ; NS : 205 + 165 = 370 points (+50) ; PS4 (September) : 33 points (-82)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 10 (+2)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 91 (-12) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 109 (-29) - 299.00$


Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 148 (-1) - 299.00$

PS4 : 60 points (-12) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :46 points (-26) ; PS4 (September) : 190 points (+5)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 336.0 points (-13.6) ; Month Average : 435.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 187.2 points (+42.6) ; Month Average : 162.7 points/day ; 0.37 (-)
3 - PS4 : 102.0 points (-11.0) ; Month Average : 144.7 points/day ; 0.33 (-)

Which day does "July NPD" end ?



p0isonparadise on 30 July 2018

I believe it's August 4th.