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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

quickrick said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem for that theory is that Multilayer Ceramic capacitors are also in the XBO and the Switch, so shouldn't they have the same problems, too?

playstation 4 is selling much better then those 2 consoles WW.

It's just 30k above Switch, Nintendos console should already have the same problems, but there's not even a sign of it happening anywhere.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

playstation 4 is selling much better then those 2 consoles WW.

It's just 30k above Switch, Nintendos console should already have the same problems, but there's not even a sign of it happening anywhere.

Its sold 2 million more this year, that a huge difference. imagine if switch sold 2 million less in it's first 6 month of launch, you think we would have seen any shortages?



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Shaqazooloo0 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cant-find-a-playstation-4-blame-it-on-a-part-barely-bigger-than-a-speck-1530282882

 

Also can you use the quote button? Most times I don't really know who you are referring to with your posts, it's a little confusing.

Problem for that theory is that Multilayer Ceramic capacitors are also in the XBO and the Switch, so shouldn't they have the same problems, too?

In theory, yes.  But I think it would also depend on what kind of contracts they all have with the suppliers for these parts.

For example, we all know that Nintendo is planning to have 20m Switchs ensambled for this fiscal year so they probably ordered the parts needed for that amount, while Sony was forecasting only 16m, which means they problably "under-ordered" and now they cannot get the parts needed to ensamble more units because MS and Nintendo already have them.

But you know, this is all speculation on my part. 



chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Problem for that theory is that Multilayer Ceramic capacitors are also in the XBO and the Switch, so shouldn't they have the same problems, too?

In theory, yes.  But I think it would also depend on what kind of contracts they all have with the suppliers for these parts.

For example, we all know that Nintendo is planning to have 20m Switchs ensambled for this fiscal year so they probably ordered the parts needed for that amount, while Sony was forecasting only 16m, which means they problably "under-ordered" and now they cannot get the parts needed to ensamble more units because MS and Nintendo already have them.

But you know, this is all speculation on my part. 

Sony needs those also for other products, like DVD/BR Players, Smartphones or Smart TVs. They should have ordered a metric shitton out of them anyways. Not having enough of those should also affect their other products. But nope, no shortages to see there.



PortisheadBiscuit said:
Switch will win July by a landslide if this keeps up

I mean its biased since ps4 isnt sold at amazon anymore, Switch gets so much points cause of that. Sure Switch is probably a little bit higher anyway but still that gap is way too big.



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xMetroid said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Switch will win July by a landslide if this keeps up

I mean its biased since ps4 isnt sold at amazon anymore, Switch gets so much points cause of that. Sure Switch is probably a little bit higher anyway but still that gap is way too big.

Ps4 not being sold on Amazon means potential sales will go to another retailer.



Marth said:
Im curious for the next update. Because amazon right now is wonky as hell and has additional Switch bundles with MicroSD and eShop card in the top 100. Maybe the weighting of amazons points should be reduced a bit?

 

Amazon Prime day with deals on Consoles and bundles is why this is happening I'd assume. Right now you can get a switch, SD card, eshop gift card & a pro Controllee for $299.



Marth said:
Im curious for the next update. Because amazon right now is wonky as hell and has additional Switch bundles with MicroSD and eShop card in the top 100. Maybe the weighting of amazons points should be reduced a bit?

Why should the weighting be reduced to negate an increase in sales volume from an Amazon initiative ?

I dont see why the model should be tweaked because of that when its been  reasonably accurate so far ?

If other sites have similar promotions, the effects will also filter through.

I hope you are not just bowing to some discontent beginning to creep in from some quarters just because the PS4 is currently having a torrid sales performance according to the tool's data ?

If the tool is wrong, I think the smart thing to do is wait and let NPD results show this rather than altering the model in the middle of a data collection period when its not been shown to be wrong yet. 

Last edited by duduspace1 - on 18 July 2018

07/18/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 1 (-) - 294.69$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-) - 299.00$
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + SD Card + 20$ - 19 (N) - 348.98$
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Grey + SD Card + 20$ - 59 (N) - 348.98$
6 (-2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 90 (-5) - 480.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 210 + 11 = 221 points (-5) ; NS : 200 + 175 + 120 + 42 = 537 points (+162)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 26 (-3) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 30 (-1) - 499.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 48 (-7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 points (-) ; XBO : 100 + 92 + 56 = 248 points (-22) ; NS : 200 + 175 = 375 points (-5)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 56 (+7) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 57 (-15) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 147 (+14) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 96 points (+8) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :94 + 27 = 121 points (-9)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 625.6 points (+119.6) ; Month Average : 433.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 137.0 points (+8.0) ; Month Average : 163.9 points/day ; 0.38 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 226.4 points (-8.4) ; Month Average : 135.8 points/day ; 0.31 (-)



Wow. If this July's NPD plays out like this Switch is gonna have quite the lead.