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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Bofferbrauer2 on 28 May 2018

The averages are really getting low by now.

Also, looks like it's high time for the Switch to get some new high profile games, as it's dipping pretty deep now



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Symbios63 on 29 May 2018

05/29/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 28 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 49 (+4) - 256.90$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 61 (+4) - 484.99$


Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 54 + 40 = 94 points (+10) ; NS : 175 + 96 = 271 points (+14)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 6 (-) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 9 (+2) - 499.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 14 (+4) - 249.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (+3) - 299.00$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 61 (+14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-) ; XBO : 170 + 145 +40 = 355 points (+54) ; NS : 190 + 130 = 320 points (+15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 7 (+7) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 22 (+3) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 67 (+18) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 153 (+21) - 299.00$
5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 187 (R) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 160 + 84 = 439 points (+43) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 24 + 7 = 31 points (+17)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 517.0 points (+43.0) ; Month Average : 551.86 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 311.8 points (+31.2) ; Month Average : 400.23 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 146.2 (+18.8) points ; Month Average : 224.65 points/day ; 0.41 (-)



JRPGfan on 29 May 2018
Symbios63 said:
05/29/18 :

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 517.0 points (+43.0) ; Month Average : 551.86 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 311.8 points (+31.2) ; Month Average : 400.23 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 146.2 (+18.8) points ; Month Average : 224.65 points/day ; 0.41 (-)

The amount of work it takes..... Im still amazed your doing this, thanks once again.



globalisateur on 29 May 2018
Symbios63 said:
05/28/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 53 (+11) - 256.90$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 65 (+8) - 484.99$


Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 93 (+6) - TP

PS4 : 0 points (-8) ; XBO : 48 + 36 = 84 points (+19) ; NS : 165 + 92 = 257 points (+2)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 6 (-) - 399.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 11 (-) - 499.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 18 (-) - 249.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 20 (-) - 299.00$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 75 (-) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-) ; XBO : 160 + 125 +26 = 301 points (-) ; NS : 190 + 115 = 305 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 14 (+1) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 25 (+2) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 85 (-12) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 174 (-28) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 150 + 66 = 396 points (-2) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 14 points (-14)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 474.0 points (-8.4) ; Month Average : 553.10 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 280.6 points (-12.4) ; Month Average : 403.39 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 127.4 (+15.2) points ; Month Average : 227.45 points/day ; 0.41 (-0.01)

You'll need to make an average for the whole official May NPD period, so starting 5/05/2018 (don't know the end date yet). 



JRPGfan on 29 May 2018
globalisateur said:
Symbios63 said:

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 474.0 points (-8.4) ; Month Average : 553.10 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 280.6 points (-12.4) ; Month Average : 403.39 points/day ; 0.73 (-)
3 - XBO : 127.4 (+15.2) points ; Month Average : 227.45 points/day ; 0.41 (-0.01)

You'll need to make an average for the whole official May NPD period, so starting 5/05/2018 (don't know the end date yet). 

is that what he does already? a few days wont effect things much.

Hes saying for may so far:

PS =  leader
NS =  73% of PS4 sales
XB1 = 41% of PS4 sales

Basically for May with his progress NPD prediction, with the avg for month (29days of tracking) it looks like it ll be PS4 > NSW > XB1.

Unless Im missing something? or mis-understanding something?



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globalisateur on 30 May 2018
JRPGfan said:
globalisateur said:

You'll need to make an average for the whole official May NPD period, so starting 5/05/2018 (don't know the end date yet). 

is that what he does already? a few days wont effect things much.

Hes saying for may so far:

PS =  leader
NS =  73% of PS4 sales
XB1 = 41% of PS4 sales

Basically for May with his progress NPD prediction, with the avg for month (29days of tracking) it looks like it ll be PS4 > NSW > XB1.

Unless Im missing something? or mis-understanding something?

He is doing a tool for predicting NPD months. May NPD will begin on 5/5/18, not one week before. Or it's not a NPD prediction tool, only a monthly prediction tool. 

Here we can still see the impact of god of war from 30/4 to 5/5, not much anymore after that, just when May NPD period starts. 



Symbios63 on 30 May 2018
JRPGfan said:

The amount of work it takes..... Im still amazed your doing this, thanks once again.

Thanks. Actually, now that I have all the tools, I only need 15 minutes to update so this is ok.

globalisateur said:

You'll need to make an average for the whole official May NPD period, so starting 5/05/2018 (don't know the end date yet). 

This is a good point, I will do that in the future...



Symbios63 on 30 May 2018

05/30/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 53 (+8) - 484.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 500 Gb White - 55 (-6) - 256.90$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 0 points (-) ; XBO : 48 + 46 = 94 points (-) ; NS : 180 + 98 = 278 points (+7)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 1 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 4 (+2) - 399.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-3) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 14 (-5) - 499.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 18 (-4) - 249.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 20 (-3) - 299.00$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 41 (+20) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 195 = 405 points (+15) ; XBO : 145 + 125 +70 = 340 points (-15) ; NS : 175 + 115 = 290 points (-30)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 12 (-5) - 399.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars - 22 (-) - 399.99$
3 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Days of Play - 29 (N) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 41 (+26) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 102 (+51) - 299.00$
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 153 (+34) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 160 + 140 + 110 = 595 points (+156) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 50 + 24 = 74 points (+43)

Overall (Today) :

1 - PS4 : 676.0 points (+159.0) ; Month Average : 527.62 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 354.4 points (+42.6) ; Month Average : 387.72 points/day ; 0.73
3 - XBO : 143.2 (-3.0) points ; Month Average : 227.72 points/day ; 0.43



Ok, new averages and new graph to stay close to the period tracked by NPD...It didn't change much overall (XBO is slightly higher relatively). New limited PS4 model at gamestop explaining the big increase.



gemini_d@rk on 30 May 2018

Oh man, that ps4 curve to sky....



Bofferbrauer2 on 30 May 2018
gemini_d@rk said:
Oh man, that ps4 curve to sky....

It mostly comes from the release of a new limited edition of the PS4, will probably go down again soon.

Now that Pokémon got a real announcement, it will be interesting to watch how the Switch sales will evolve. 



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/