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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Mar1217 said:
It might be a calmer month this time around. I mean Sony doesn't have the God of War juggernaut from last year so it'll be a tighter month.

GOW was April, but I still agree 



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03/12/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 7 (-) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 37 (+9) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 61 (-5) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 97 (-10) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 97 (-8) - 225.90$

PS4 : 74 + 4 = 78 points (-10) ; XBO : 0 points (-4) ; NS : 180 + 78 + 40 = 298 points (+13)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (-5) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-5) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (-4) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 13 (-6) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 19 (-5) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 39 (-2) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 43 (-12) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 150 = 320 points (-55) ; XBO : 120 + 74 = 194 points (-29) ; NS : 185 + 165 + 66 = 416 points (-69)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (+2)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 34 (-1)
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 85 (+24)
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 95 (+3)
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 103 (+4)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 109 (+12)

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 154 (-22)

PS4 : 190 + 46 = 236 points (+11) ; XBO : 56 + 49 = 105 point (-20) ; NS : 130 + 66 = 196 points (+20)

Overall :

1 - NS : 517.6 points (+16.6) ; Month Average : 599.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 362.4 points (-8.0) ; Month Average : 358.3 points/day ; 0.60 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 186.9 points (-37.7) ; Month Average : 275.9 points/day ; 0.46 (-0.01)



Hardware revision shares (March 12):

PS4:

Slim: (74)*0.8+(170)*02+190= 283.2
Pro: 4*08+150*0.2+46= 79.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 78.1/21.9%

Xbox One:

S: ((0)*0.8+ (74)*0.2+49)*1.3= 83
X: (0*0.8+(120)*0.2+56)*1.3= 104

S/X ratio: 44.4/55.6%

Slim+S 366.2/Pro+X 183.2

Total ratio: 66.6%/33.4%

PS4 slim lost exactly as much points at BestBuy as it won .at Gamestop. X and Pro slipped, giving the S and Slim a hellish good ratio.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 13 March 2019

03/13/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 15 (-8) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 19 (+18) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (+10) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 50 (+11) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (+9) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 94 + 15 = 109 points (+31) ; XBO : 0 points (-4) ; NS : 140 + 120 + 52 = 312 points (+14)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 8 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 11 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 13 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 21 (-2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 51 (-12) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 68 (-25) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 150 = 325 points (+5) ; XBO : 110 + 50 = 160 points (-34) ; NS : 185 + 160 + 33 = 378 points (-38)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 35 (-1)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 78 (+7)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 80 (+23)
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 92 (+17)
6 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 135 (-40)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 60 = 250 points (+14) ; XBO : 72 + 33 = 105 point (-) ; NS : 125 + 74 = 199 points (+3)

Overall :

1 - NS : 524.2 points (+6.6) ; Month Average : 592.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 402.2 points (+39.8) ; Month Average : 362.3 points/day ; 0.61 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 178.1 points (-8.8) ; Month Average : 267.0 points/day ; 0.45 (-0.01)



So Xbox and PS4 are just trundling along. Switch doing well. Be interesting to see if as the big games come along if it makes any difference at this point... suspect it won't too much as we are at the tail end of this gen.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

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03/14/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 38 (-23) - TP
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 45 (+5) - 299.00$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 73 (+13) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 94 + 28 = 122 points (+13) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 140 + 76 + 62 = 278 points (-34)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+4) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+5) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 4 (+9) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 5 (+6) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 11 (+10) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 41 (+10) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 61 (+7) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 195 = 395 points (+70) ; XBO : 160 + 70 = 230 points (+70) ; NS : 205 + 190 + 40 = 435 points (+57)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 12 (-3)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 39 (-4)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 84 (-6)
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 98 (-6)
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 99 (-19)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 121 (+14)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 54 = 239 points (-11) ; XBO : 52 + 40 = 92 point (-13) ; NS : 115 + 68 = 183 points (-16)

Overall :

1 - NS : 492.4 points (-31.8) ; Month Average : 584.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 415.6 points (+13.4) ; Month Average : 366.8 points/day ; 0.63 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 179.4 points (+1.3) ; Month Average : 259.7 points/day ; 0.44 (-0.01)



Tool correctly predicted the winner of February, Switch wins by a good margin.
However PS4 comfortably ahead of Xbox for 2nd place

NSW; 363k
PS4: 283k
Xbx: 225k



Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62



jason1637 said:
Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62

NSW & XBO ratios pretty good, PS4 very undertracked.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
jason1637 said:
Tool results for February
Switch - 1.0
XBO- 0.59
PS4- 0.41
Actual results
Switch- 1
PS4- 0.78
XBO- 0.62

NSW & XBO ratios pretty good, PS4 very undertracked.

Well, not a horrible month for the tool. I think PS4 undertracking might be due to the lack of new SKU/promo compared to both Switch (35$ eshop bundle) and XBO (promo).

This will have to be included in the formula at some point using the months where the tool was obviously wrong but it will be easier when we have few more "bad" months.