Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Ok, these charts became harder to read than I expected at the beginning of this month ...



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zorg1000 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
That NPD will get very interesting. Switch first was a given with Smash, the question was more by how much.

However, seems like the XBO could actually beat the PS4 for the second spot, though the many different SKU probably distort things a bit too much

XBO should get 2nd, it did last year and it had some good deals this year while PS4 didnt.

Yep looking the same as last year again  for the Big 3 in Dec



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

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12/28/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 19 (+6) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 79 (-46) - 324.00$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 89 (-17) - 258.90$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 93 (+2) - 298.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 95 (R) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 68 (-10) - 299.00$

PS4 : 8 + 6 = 14 points (+8) ; XBO : 12 points (-17) ; NS : 160 + 120 + 22 = 302 points (-79)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 10 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 14 (+2) - 299.99$
5 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 27 (-20) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 29 (+3) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 78 (-35) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 56 (+8) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 - 71 (-2) - 299.99$

PS4 : 165 + 145 + 94 = 404 points (+26) ; XBO : 98 + 23 = 121 points (-200) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White Bundle + GC - 10 (+6)
2 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 + GC - 11 (+3)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 14 (+1)
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 15 (+4)
5 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 16 (+1)
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + GC - 17 (+1)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 33 (-5)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 58 (-)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 69 (+9)

Out of Top 100 :

10 (-8) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 79 (-55)
11 (-10) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 181 (-174)

PS4 : 94 points (-10) ; XBO : 190 + 185 + 180 + 175 + 175 = 905 points (-37) ; NS : 130 + 82 = 212 points (-7)

Overall :

1 - NS : 534.6 points (-70.2) ; Month Average : 665.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1220.4 points (-117.8) ; Month Average : 460.2 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 186.0 points (+1.6) ; Month Average : 384.4 points/day ; 0.58 (-)

Yup, XBO deals at gamestop will ruin everything again.... :(

I will have work to do before next holyday season... (For December, I think it will be fair to reduce the importance of the end of the month (after the 24) in the average calculation...)



Symbios63 said:
12/28/18 :

Overall :

1 - NS : 534.6 points (-70.2) ; Month Average : 665.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1220.4 points (-117.8) ; Month Average : 460.2 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 186.0 points (+1.6) ; Month Average : 384.4 points/day ; 0.58 (-)

Yup, XBO deals at gamestop will ruin everything again.... :(

I will have work to do before next holyday season... (For December, I think it will be fair to reduce the importance of the end of the month (after the 24) in the average calculation...)

I agree, but the big question is by how much



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Symbios63 said:
12/28/18 :

Overall :

1 - NS : 534.6 points (-70.2) ; Month Average : 665.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1220.4 points (-117.8) ; Month Average : 460.2 points/day ; 0.69 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 186.0 points (+1.6) ; Month Average : 384.4 points/day ; 0.58 (-)

Yup, XBO deals at gamestop will ruin everything again.... :(

I will have work to do before next holyday season... (For December, I think it will be fair to reduce the importance of the end of the month (after the 24) in the average calculation...)

I agree, but the big question is by how much

I hope December NPD results will help us answer this question. 

Taking into account sale spikes (Black Friday week, beginning of December vs after the 24) and trying not to overestimate multiple skus deals deals will be what I will try to include first into the formula.

I am waiting to have both November and December results to start working on it.



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12/29/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 16 (+3) - 299.00$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 75 (+18) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 94 (-5) - 258.90$

Out of Top 100 :

3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 79 (-46) - 324.00$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 95 (R) - 299.99$

PS4 : 22 points (+8) ; XBO : 7 points (-5) ; NS : 160 + 135 = 295 points (-7)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 11 (+3) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 33 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 34 (-7) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 73 (+5) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 160 + 86 = 421 points (+17) ; XBO : 84 + 28 = 112 points (-9) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White Bundle + GC - 7 (+3)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 + GC - 9 (+2)
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 10 (+4)
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 11 (+4)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 12 (+4)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + GC - 13 (+4)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 30 (+3)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 45 (+13)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 63 (+6)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (+12) ; XBO : 195 + 190 + 190 + 185 + 180 = 940 points (+35) ; NS : 140 + 88 = 228 points (+16)

Overall :

1 - NS : 545.0 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 661.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1258.4 points (+38.0) ; Month Average : 488.7 points/day ; 0.74 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 207.8 points (+21.8) ; Month Average : 378.1 points/day ; 0.57 (-0.01)



Symbios63 said:
12/29/18 :

Overall :

1 - NS : 545.0 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 661.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1258.4 points (+38.0) ; Month Average : 488.7 points/day ; 0.74 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 207.8 points (+21.8) ; Month Average : 378.1 points/day ; 0.57 (-0.01)

Hmm..   I think this month the Tool is gonna be A LOT closer than last month.

In fact, these ratios almost mirror my own personal prediction:  Switch  2m, X1 1.3m and PS4 1M



12/30/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 16 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 70 (+5) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 99 (-5) - 255.90$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 100 (R) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 31 + 1 = 32 points (+10) ; XBO : 2 points (-5) ; NS : 160 + 135 = 295 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 31 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 39 (-6) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 64 (+9) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 165 + 74 = 414 points (-7) ; XBO : 90 + 37 = 127 points (+15) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White Bundle + GC - 3 (+4)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 + GC - 6 (+3)
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 7 (+3)
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 8 (+3)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 9 (+3)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + GC - 10 (+3)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 26 (+4)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 44 (+1)
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 63 (-)
10 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 191 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 108 + 5 = 113 points (+7) ; XBO : 205 + 200 + 195 + 195 + 190 = 985 points (+45) ; NS : 150 + 88 = 238 points (+10)

Overall :

1 - NS : 555.0 points (+10.0) ; Month Average : 657.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 1315.6 points (+57.2) ; Month Average : 517.2 points/day ; 0.79 (+0.05)
3 (-) - PS4 : 221.4 points (+13.6) ; Month Average : 372.7 points/day ; 0.57 (-)



01/01/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-5) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 63 (+7) - 299.95$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V Bundle - 87 (+12) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 100 (R) - 399.99$

PS4 : 38 points (+6) ; XBO : 14 points (+12) ; NS : 160 + 110 = 270 points (-25)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (-1) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 25 (+6) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 61 (-22) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 67 (-3) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 165 + 40 = 375 points (-39) ; XBO : 102 + 34 = 136 points (+9) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (+6) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 26 (-)
2 (+6) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 39 (+5)
3 (+6) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 67 (-4)

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White Bundle + GC - 3 (+4)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 + GC - 6 (+3)
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 7 (+3)
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + GC - 8 (+3)
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 9 (+3)
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUBG + GC - 10 (+3)
10 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 191 (R)

PS4 : 115 points (+2) ; XBO : 0 point (-985) ; NS : 150 + 84 = 234 points (-4)

Overall :

1 - NS : 531.0 points (-24.0) ; Month Average : 649.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 49.9 points (-1265.7) ; Month Average : 507.4 points/day ; 0.78 (-0.01)
3 (-) - PS4 : 220.4 points (-1.0) ; Month Average : 362.9 points/day ; 0.56 (-0.01)


And Happy New Year !!



Now that's a cliff!