In progress NPD predicting tool

Replicant

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Replicant on 17 January 2019

peachbuggy said:

Replicant said:

snip

Oh i see. Fair enough. Still, pretty big drop for all 3 and to be expected too.

Of course

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Madword on 17 January 2019

peachbuggy said:

Replicant said:

Sony will of course be down a lot in January as well.

But I think he means that the percentage drop may be bigger for Switch and XB1 if Benji (US sales insider) is right about Switch being over double PS4 in December AND if the NPD predicting tool is right about PS4 being relatively close to Switch in January.

If XB1 ends up being over PS4 in December and the graph below ends up being close to the final numbers in January, you can see why XB1 would have a "massive drop" compared to PS4

Oh i see. Fair enough. Still, pretty big drop for all 3 and to be expected too.

The one benefit for Xbox in January is that sales drop a lot anyway so even if they are doing badly, overall sales for all three won't be massive anyway, so the gap will be probably ok.

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Symbios63 on 17 January 2019

01/17/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-3) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 45 (-1) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 68 (-) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 97 (R) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 62 + 33 + 4 = 99 points (+2) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 155 + 100 = 255 points (-6)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 9 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 43 (-2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 53 (-1) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 170 + 145 = 315 points (-10) ; XBO : 66 + 48 = 114 points (-5) ; NS : 200 + 185 = 385 points (+20)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 23 (-3)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 77 (-5)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 176 (+6) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 155 + 13 = 168 points (-7) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 74 points (-6)

Overall :

1 - NS : 355.0 points (-6.8) ; Month Average : 459.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 338.2 points (-7.4) ; Month Average : 342.9 points/day ; 0.75 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 29.6 points (-1.4) ; Month Average : 32.3 points/day ; 0.07 (-)

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Symbios63 on 18 January 2019

01/18/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+2) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 28 (-2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 43 (+2) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 93 (+4) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 66 + 32 + 8 = 106 points (+7) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 165 + 96 = 261 points (+6)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 5 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 40 (+3) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 59 (-6) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 145 = 325 points (+10) ; XBO : 72 + 42 = 114 points (-) ; NS : 200 + 190 = 390 points (+5)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 28 (-5)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 72 (+5)
3 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 171 (R)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 178 (-2)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 145 + 12 = 157 points (-11) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 80 + 15 = 95 points (+21)

Overall :

1 - NS : 381.8 points (+26.8) ; Month Average : 453.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 334.8 points (-3.4) ; Month Average : 342.3 points/day ; 0.75 (-)
3 - XBO : 29.6 points (-) ; Month Average : 32.1 points/day ; 0.07 (-)

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Symbios63 on 19 January 2019

01/19/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-2) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 34 (-6) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 46 (-3) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (-6) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 88 (+5) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 60 + 26 + 13 = 99 points (-7) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 155 + 84 = 239 points (-22)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 7 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 10 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 39 (+1) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 69 (-10) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 180 + 165 = 345 points (+20) ; XBO : 74 + 32 = 106 points (-8) ; NS : 205 + 185 = 390 points (-)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 28 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 72 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 171 (-)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 178 (-)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 145 + 12 = 157 points (-) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 80 + 15 = 95 points (-)

Overall :

1 - NS : 364.2 points (-17.6) ; Month Average : 447.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 333.2 points (-1.6) ; Month Average : 341.6 points/day ; 0.76 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 27.6 points (-2.0) ; Month Average : 31.8 points/day ; 0.07 (-)

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Symbios63 on 20 January 2019

01/20/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (-2) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 33 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 49 (-3) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-11) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-11) - 319.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 54 + 15 + 2 = 71 points (-28) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 145 + 86 = 231 points (-8)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 8 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 34 (+5) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 69 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 175 + 160 = 335 points (-10) ; XBO : 84 + 32 = 116 points (+10) ; NS : 200 + 180 = 380 points (-10)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 28 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 56 (+16)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 124 (+54)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 134 (+37)
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 189 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 145 + 39 + 6 = 190 points (+33) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 96 + 29 = 125 points (+30)

Overall :

1 - NS : 385.8 points (+21.6) ; Month Average : 442.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 341.8 points (+8.6) ; Month Average : 341.6 points/day ; 0.77 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 30.2 points (+2.6) ; Month Average : 31.7 points/day ; 0.07 (-)

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ironmanDX on 20 January 2019

Well... At least the xbox is consistent.

Bofferbrauer2

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Bofferbrauer2 on 21 January 2019

Seems like almost everybody who was interested into the XBO bought one when it was cheap and now nobody's really interested anymore.

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

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Kerotan on 21 January 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Seems like almost everybody who was interested into the XBO bought one when it was cheap and now nobody's really interested anymore.

I think MS with their aggressive holiday approach every year has trained consumers to buy like that. Ultimately it's less profitable then selling the same number at a higher average price throughout the year. I think that's why Sony has taken a different pricing approach.

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Symbios63 on 21 January 2019

01/21/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 51 (-2) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 86 (-) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 94 (R) - 239.99$

Out of Top 100 :

5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 99 (-11) - 319.99$

PS4 : 50 + 15 = 65 points (-6) ; XBO : 7 points (+7) ; NS : 145 + 88 = 233 points (+2)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (+2) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 7 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 32 (+2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 69 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 160 = 345 points (+10) ; XBO : 88 + 32 = 120 points (+4) ; NS : 210 + 180 = 390 points (+10)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 26 (+2)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 51 (+5)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 112 (+22)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 125 (-1)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 185 (+4)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 150 + 38 + 8 = 196 points (+6) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 100 + 45 = 145 points (+20)

Overall :

1 - NS : 409.4 points (+23.6) ; Month Average : 440.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 345.0 points (+3.2) ; Month Average : 341.8 points/day ; 0.78 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 38.5 points (+8.3) ; Month Average : 32.1 points/day ; 0.07 (-)

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