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Forums - Sales - In progress NPD predicting tool

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not cool Kerotan.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-32#post-15188724

Wow, trashing the tool on another forum. Extremely disrespectful to Symbios who puts a lot of effort in compiling data for us. 

Yeah that is pretty lame. And what he said is not even true....it has been off for ONE month and all o fa sudden it is biased towards Nintendo when that has never been the case. Then constantly comes to the Amazon and NPD tool threads....just to trash them.....wow. Not cool....not cool at all. And it is sad because I like him but sometimes his bias towards Sony and PS makes him come off wrong.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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PortisheadBiscuit said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not cool Kerotan.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-32#post-15188724

Wow, trashing the tool on another forum. Extremely disrespectful to Symbios who puts a lot of effort in compiling data for us. 

SMH

But I guess console warriors gonna be console warriors.



Miyamotoo said:
Mr.GameCrazy said:

The Smash Bros Nintendo Switch bundle wasn't released until November 2.

Benji said that Smash bundle had 1 day of tracking.

 

MasonADC said:
Kerotan said:
YESSSS I knew this tracker was wrong for October. It was obvious ps4 would win the month. Glad to lay that to rest.

Really?

That's an imposter over there. Obviously a fan. 

 

But as for the tracker in October. I knew it would be wrong but I wasn't arsed making a big deal of it because I knew there would be lots of posters having a go at me. So I just quietly waited for the results to confirm an easy ps4 win. 

 

After dominating September and the spiderman effect continuing into October I just knew with bo4 and especially rdr2 launching the switch had no chance to beat the ps4.

 

Not sure how long the ps4 will be doubted but it's going to be the fastest ever console to hit 100m. It's a steam train and it ain't slowing down m 2019 no different. 



People really like to underestimate PS4 it’s so funny



Well, it would have been surprising to have good accuracy on our first holyday season.

I suspect November might be off for PS4 as well (main problem being that PS4 relies essentialy on one SKU for its sales whereas the others have several. Maybe point value will have to be modified during holyday season). I will analyse October results when I have the time to see if I can think of something.

NS / XBO Ratio was OK. It is the second time PS4 is undertracked here (First time was July) but this is not the case every month as it was for XBO before the 1.3 factor....

Now let's see how this tool does in November...



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Barkley said:

So now results are in, seems this is the first month this tool got the positioning wrong. Seems the end of year is definitely going to be difficult to predict in this way, however it did perform admirably for the summer months. Used ratios from tool against NPD sales numbers to make the bottom table, which makes it easier to understand how undertracked/overtracked each system was imo.

Ratios


PS4 Switch XBO
NPD 1 0.75 0.62
Tool 0.66 1 0.74

Sales


PS4 Switch XBO
NPD 340k 260k 215k
Tool 224k 340k 251k

Thanks.

XB1 and Switch ratios are pretty close. I wonder if it's possible to implement some changes that make the tool more reliable during the holiday months. Regardless, it's still impressive if Symbios has made a tool that can predict ratios in 9 of the year's 12 months.

 

Yeah, that's kinda dickish of you Kerotan. The tool has been impressive so far. How should it be able to predict holiday months if we discard it before it has ever been used in those holiday months? Give it a chance to evolve.



Yeah, really weird people keep underestimating PS4. I mean, I don't want it to win, but I'm not gonna deny how well it's doing and likely will do. It's kind of insane to me that we have people on occasions say that it needs a price cut or whatever.



It does need a price cut, badly, in Japan.

But Sony just doesn't care about Japan when it's steamrolling everywhere else.



Megiddo said:
It does need a price cut, badly, in Japan.

But Sony just doesn't care about Japan when it's steamrolling everywhere else.

For Japan I can understand, However, I have seen people seriously suggest that the PS4 needs a price cut outside of Japan, which is just something I don't understand. Pretty much anytime it looks like the PS4 doesn't do insane numbers, people call price cuts.



Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

Benji said that Smash bundle had 1 day of tracking.

 

MasonADC said:

Really?

That's an imposter over there. Obviously a fan. 

 

But as for the tracker in October. I knew it would be wrong but I wasn't arsed making a big deal of it because I knew there would be lots of posters having a go at me. So I just quietly waited for the results to confirm an easy ps4 win. 

 

After dominating September and the spiderman effect continuing into October I just knew with bo4 and especially rdr2 launching the switch had no chance to beat the ps4.

 

Not sure how long the ps4 will be doubted but it's going to be the fastest ever console to hit 100m. It's a steam train and it ain't slowing down m 2019 no different. 

I mean it is past its peak, WW atleast