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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Super Smash Bros "Switch" Will Sell 20mil+ Lifetime. (10mil by years end)

Wyrdness said:

20m is not that bold tbh S4 in total has sold 14m while Brawl sold 13m I can see it hitting 20m LT just fine provided its a new instalment.

It is still bold. I mean it means it has to sell about 50% higher than the best entry. Thats alot. Pokemon still cant hit 20mil last 4 main entries despite selling 16mil-18mil. Also thats with pokemkn go help!



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tbone51 said:
Wyrdness said:

20m is not that bold tbh S4 in total has sold 14m while Brawl sold 13m I can see it hitting 20m LT just fine provided its a new instalment.

It is still bold. I mean it means it has to sell about 50% higher than the best entry. Thats alot. Pokemon still cant hit 20mil last 4 main entries despite selling 16mil-18mil. Also thats with pokemkn go help!

Not really because the situation on the Switch is far different than prior platforms for one the userbase is unified meaning a higher potential percentage for sales, Switch's momentum is attracting new people to the userbase which again increases potential sales and the attach rate on the platform is good, the sales of both Zelda and SMO outdoing prior games backs this.

Pokemon is a game that has been consistent yet static, while good it hasn't done anything prior to bring in new fans yet they've still managed 16-18m which is not far off from 20m compare that to the games before the series was hovering around the 10-11m mark so an actual increase has happened.



What are the lottery numbers, tbone?



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Slarvax said:
What are the lottery numbers, tbone?

If only i knew xD



10 million by year's end is pretty much impossible since it will probably launch as a holiday title. 20m could be achievable but I'm gonna go with 15m myself.



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Wyrdness said:
tbone51 said:

It is still bold. I mean it means it has to sell about 50% higher than the best entry. Thats alot. Pokemon still cant hit 20mil last 4 main entries despite selling 16mil-18mil. Also thats with pokemkn go help!

Not really because the situation on the Switch is far different than prior platforms for one the userbase is unified meaning a higher potential percentage for sales, Switch's momentum is attracting new people to the userbase which again increases potential sales and the attach rate on the platform is good, the sales of both Zelda and SMO outdoing prior games backs this.

Pokemon is a game that has been consistent yet static, while good it hasn't done anything prior to bring in new fans yet they've still managed 16-18m which is not far off from 20m compare that to the games before the series was hovering around the 10-11m mark so an actual increase has happened.

Actually thats more reason to why i think 20mil. Guess thats why its not bold enough for u. Should i switch it to 25mil? :P



tbone51 said:
Wyrdness said:

Not really because the situation on the Switch is far different than prior platforms for one the userbase is unified meaning a higher potential percentage for sales, Switch's momentum is attracting new people to the userbase which again increases potential sales and the attach rate on the platform is good, the sales of both Zelda and SMO outdoing prior games backs this.

Pokemon is a game that has been consistent yet static, while good it hasn't done anything prior to bring in new fans yet they've still managed 16-18m which is not far off from 20m compare that to the games before the series was hovering around the 10-11m mark so an actual increase has happened.

Actually thats more reason to why i think 20mil. Guess thats why its not bold enough for u. Should i switch it to 25mil? :P

Yes that would be bold.



TruckOSaurus said:
10 million by year's end is pretty much impossible since it will probably launch as a holiday title. 20m could be achievable but I'm gonna go with 15m myself.

Let me "open your eyes". SMO a 3d mario who biggest y1 previously was i believe galaxy or 3dl. Games did about 5mil-6mil each. SMO did 9.1mil.

 

Ssb for 3ds+wiiu did 9mil first year together



tbone51 said:
TruckOSaurus said:
10 million by year's end is pretty much impossible since it will probably launch as a holiday title. 20m could be achievable but I'm gonna go with 15m myself.

Let me "open your eyes". SMO a 3d mario who biggest y1 previously was i believe galaxy or 3dl. Games did about 5mil-6mil each. SMO did 9.1mil.

Ssb for 3ds+wiiu did 9mil first year together

Neither SMO nor SSB (3ds at least) launched late november/december, which I'm assuming Truck means by a holiday launch.

SMO shipped 9.1m in just over 2 months, a late november launch would mean Smash would have to do better in half the time.



I think Smash, Mario Odyssey, MK8:D, Pokemon and a core 2D Mario game all have a shot at hitting 20m+ lifetime. The last time a Nintendo platform had that many games hit 20m+ was the Wii.