Kaneman! said:
Teeqoz said:
Haha, as you can see, my most recent project has been about electricity production and renewables in particular. I've thought about making a thread with this, might get around to it once complete numbers for 2017 are available (which should be on monday!). Again, sorry about this, just had a total nerd-down here
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Impressive!
Even with the exponential growth of the renewable sources, it still has ways to go, though. I'll be looking forward to that thread.
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Yeah, even in 2017, Solar still only accounts for a bit more than 1% of US annual electricity production. That's why I didn't include it in the first chart - it's still inconsequential to the broader picture, it would be such a thin line that you'd brely notice it. It is probably one of, if not the most important energy source for the future though. (Until we figure out fusion)
Qwark said:
It's actually pretty sad to see that the energy transition at the current rate isn't going to make a real difference until 2050. What is especially troublesome is the trend you see in European countries that renewable energy will first replace nuclear energy and Coal, Oil, Gas and other fossil fuels will remain. So they will not be replaced for decades. Oh well at least gas is replacing coals, so that's a win. Anyway at the current rate 4 degrees climate change due to our CO2 emission instead of 2 is more likely. Especially since the EROI for all fossil fuels is on decline.
The only way the energy transition can really take off is when people start to really care and small energy projects to really take off. In Germany this approach is pretty successful. It's just a shame they close down nuclear plants, which are relatively clean instead of coal. In my country it's even worse since the grams of carbon per kW/h is actually rising.
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It really depends on what you mean by making a real difference. Will we achieve the 2 degree goal? Almost certainly not. But changes in the energy portfolio have made very noticeable contributions. If you look at my first chart, perhaps the most substantial trend is no the growth of renewables - but that phasing out of coal in favor of natural gas. Natural gas has about half the CO2 emissions per unit of energy compared to coal, and is also much better for air quality because it doesn't release dangerous areosols into the air.
Nuclear has gotten an unfairly bad rep, but I think changing that is a lost cause with regards to having nuclear replacing large amounts of coal towards 2050.
Also, if you look at the US, the trend points towards nuclear being pretty constant while fossil fuels declin (especially coal, as it's under attack from both natural gas and renewables). In Europe, there have been moderate declines in both nuclear and coal, but more than anything, renewbles have been the source for new, additional capacity, and hasn't really been replacing already existing capacity to a large degree.....yet.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/overview-of-the-electricity-production-1/assessment
I think the outlook is very positive. While there will be some minor hiccups in the transition (like Trump wanting coal back in the US - not gonna happen BTW), the trend is unstoppable, and we'll get there eventually.
I forgot to mention, we might be able to remain within 2 degrees with carbon capture.