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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

quickrick on 21 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
No offense but what the fuck are people comparing 3DS first January to Switch?

3DS first January - 160,000 (also highest January it ever had)
Switch first January - 300-350K?

Even if that's a 5 weeks month and we cut Switch sales to 4 weeks (240-280K) 3DS get destroyed anyway.

where are you getting  300-350k from?



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zorg1000 on 22 February 2018
fatslob-:O said:
zorg1000 said:

What the hell are you talking about, 3DS has nothing to do with what we are talking about.

You said Switch would be down YOY in Japan, i said it wouldnt and you brought up 3DS sales in 2012.

That is 100% irrelevent.

 

Yes it has a steady flow of games in Spring.

Dragon Quest Builders, Kirby, Hyrule Warriors, Attack on Titan, Labo Variety, Labo Robot, Tropical Freeze, Dark Souls, Mario Tennis and some others small titles im forgetting.

Like I said, we know next to nothing abouy Summer releases. You listed 2 small 3rd party titles, obviously they have much than that coming.

DQB, Kirby and neither does AOT launch in Spring ... 

Alright, March-June.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng on 22 February 2018
fatslob-:O said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
No offense but what the fuck are people comparing 3DS first January to Switch?

3DS first January - 160,000 (also highest January it ever had)
Switch first January - 300-350K?

Even if that's a 5 weeks month and we cut Switch sales to 4 weeks (240-280K) 3DS get destroyed anyway.

Not true, 3DS's first January was 233K in the US ... (we never got a number from NPD so vgc kept making adjustments inline with statement) 

We also don't know if the Switch did 300K+ either since the total factors in SNES mini and 3DS ... 

LOL yes, we have NPD numbers, and if you missed that now you know, 3DS first January was 160k. Not even close to Switch.

Here all January sales for 3DS:

2012 - 160,000 (4 weeks)
2013 - 145,000 (5 weeks)
2014 - 97,000 (4 weeks)
2015 - 74,000 (4 weeks)
2016 - 70,000 (4 weeks)
2017 - no numbers, but less than in 2018
2018 - between 97K and 145K (5 weeks)

 

And while we have no Switch numbers it is almost surely over 300k, SNES mini sold 335k in December, so i don't think January sales can be higher than 150k (probabily less), and 3DS is 145k maximum, this leave at least >705K for XB1+PS4+NSW. It is possible that Switch is under 300k, but not likely.

Spend hardware doesn't mean much, for what we know a big part of XB1 sales could be 500$ XB1.



Nuvendil on 22 February 2018
Kerotan said: 
Nuvendil said:
For those wondering how the PS4 could be higher in revenue but lower in sales, it had bundles that drove the price up, the PS4 Pro is higher than the Switch, the PS4 Pro MHW bundle is $450. All that adds to the revenue. Switch had only 2 skus on the market priced at $300.

Also, no, MHW and DBFZ are not major system sellers. They were mild ones. But that was more than the Switch had. None.

And no one is saying PS4 numbers are unimpressive. Just that the Switch is doing well, so let's not kick up a fuss over this.

Honestly, after all the "will Amazon's accuracy hold?! IS IT RELIABLE?!" drama build up these past several days, this is quite the anticlimax. Can't wait to do it all over again next month.

The point about amazon is it suggeeted a much bigger win for Switch. Its switch biased for sure.

Amazon has ALWAYS only ever been relaible at predicting ranks NOT SALES NUMBERS.  This has been accepted for years yet in recent months a revisionist, false narrative of it being used to predict numbers and ratios has been drummed up - borderline invented from whole cloth - by people who, for whatever pitiful reason, want to discredit the practice of tracking them.  And so I will say again - and again and again and again if necessary - the Amazon charts predict the end month sales RANKINGS not numbers nor the gap. 

End of story. 

Move. On.



Ryng on 22 February 2018
Kyuu said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

* Mario Odyssey had 1 week of sales, Dragon Ball and Monster Hunter had 2, and we all know Mario legs are stronger than those games

* WTF does this even mean? You do realize Pokkén did pretty good, you do? Instead of that you could analize the fact that Skyrim and Xenoblade are above ARMS, which also did good, and DOOM is already impressive for still being in the TOP 10 considering no one expected a lot from a year old port

I stand corrected on the tracking period, but 2 days of the biggest 3D Mario ever should still pack a greater punch than a couple of multiplats, of which one is a fighting game. And please... Skyrim and Doom are nothing special at this point. Being in the top 10 means jackshit when the competition is nonexistent outside the 6 or so Nintendo games, including "ports", that are humiliating it. Legs will be interesting to follow though.

You said Skyrim and DOOM did bad because they sold less than Pokkén in their third month of sales. This is just no sense.
All those 3 games are ports, with the difference one is a Nintendo game, the others third party, and even my cousin know Nintendo games sell more than third party on Nintendo platform, yet you said they are doing bad because they sold less than Pokkén, a game which did pretty good.

Ok.

We know both DOOM and Skyrim had a good debut, Skyrim sold over 100,000 first month and DOOM over 60,000 units, and both are showing legs, idk what did you expect but those are clearly good performe.

The heck, Skyrim being over ARMS and Mario+Rabbits SERIUSLY does mean nothing for you? And again, both Mario+Rabbits and ARMS did good Worldwide, cmon man...



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fatslob-:O on 22 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:

LOL yes, we have NPD numbers, and if you missed that now you know, 3DS first January was 160k. Not even close to Switch.

Here all January sales for 3DS:

2012 - 160,000 (4 weeks)
2013 - 145,000 (5 weeks)
2014 - 97,000 (4 weeks)
2015 - 74,000 (4 weeks)
2016 - 70,000 (4 weeks)
2017 - no numbers, but less than in 2018
2018 - between 97K and 145K (5 weeks)

 

And while we have no Switch numbers it is almost surely over 300k, SNES mini sold 335k in December, so i don't think January sales can be higher than 150k (probabily less), and 3DS is 145k maximum, this leave at least >705K for XB1+PS4+NSW. It is possible that Switch is under 300k, but not likely.

Spend hardware doesn't mean much, for what we know a big part of XB1 sales could be 500$ XB1.

We did NOT have NPD numbers for January 2012 for 3DS ... 

All we got was the qualifier that the 3DS was 90% down compared to last month ... (never got NPD numbers either for December 2011 for 3DS) 



Kerotan on 22 February 2018
Nuvendil said:
Kerotan said: 

The point about amazon is it suggeeted a much bigger win for Switch. Its switch biased for sure.

Amazon has ALWAYS only ever been relaible at predicting ranks NOT SALES NUMBERS.  This has been accepted for years yet in recent months a revisionist, false narrative of it being used to predict numbers and ratios has been drummed up - borderline invented from whole cloth - by people who, for whatever pitiful reason, want to discredit the practice of tracking them.  And so I will say again - and again and again and again if necessary - the Amazon charts predict the end month sales RANKINGS not numbers nor the gap. 

End of story. 

Move. On.

In reality this issue arose from the fact people were claiming switch would win npd by big margins because of amazon data. People rightfully pointed out how it's Switch biased so that's not the case. Ironically your post was revisionist regsrding the root cause of this. 



ohmylanta1003 on 22 February 2018

Oo. I found it. "Willing to place a bet on it? You win - you're immune to any and all thrashing from the site. My call. You lose, no one is moderated for having a go at you (within reason - but with much more leniency)! Deal?" This is incredible.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

quickrick on 22 February 2018
ohmylanta1003 said:
Oo. I found it. "Willing to place a bet on it? You win - you're immune to any and all thrashing from the site. My call. You lose, no one is moderated for having a go at you (within reason - but with much more leniency)! Deal?" This is incredible.

i probably won the bet lol.



Ryng on 22 February 2018
fatslob-:O said:

We did NOT have NPD numbers for January 2012 for 3DS ... 

All we got was the qualifier that the 3DS was 90% down compared to last month ... (never got NPD numbers either for December 2011 for 3DS) 

December NPD 2011 - 1.606.000 3DS sold

 

There you go.