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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. February bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

quickrick on 15 February 2018
Mar1217 said:
quickrick said:

my point is that chart could be only 150-200k for 3 weeks, we don't know till NPD comes out, that chart could be 5.4-5.5.  there is a huge range for the for the first 3 weeks

Weren't they suppose to come out like today ?

Or is it cuz of January's 5 weeks

yea thats why it's late.



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Ryng on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

And USA is 4.89 million as December 30, your point is...?

my point is that chart could be only 150-200k for 3 weeks, we don't know till NPD comes out, that chart could be 5.4-5.5.  there is a huge range for the for the first 3 weeks

Problem is, i don't talk about the total. That chart show Switch sold something in between the 250-350K range for the month, honestly i tried to calculate it and what i got was around 300k for NA the first 3 weeks of January... but Zedark has 270k and since i want to be conservate, i use his numbers, and well, using 270k for NA first 3 weeks, there is no way USA is less than 230/240k... so for the total month of January, with 5 weeks to go, numbers are gonna be way better than my original 250k prediction.



p0isonparadise on 15 February 2018

5 hours since last update.

HARDWARE:
#11 NS Neon (down 1)
#19 NS Grey (same)
#40 XB1 (up 8)
#42 SNES Classic (up 3)
#50 PS4 Pro (up 2)
#57 XB1X (same)
#74 PS4 Fool's Edition (up 4)
#79 PS4 Pro Star Wars LE (up 13)

SOFTWARE (Pre-orders Only)**:
#01 NS Bayonetta 2 + 1 (same)

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

PS4: 3 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 2 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NIS:  2 in the top 100 / 2 in the top 50 / 2 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5



quickrick on 15 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
quickrick said:

my point is that chart could be only 150-200k for 3 weeks, we don't know till NPD comes out, that chart could be 5.4-5.5.  there is a huge range for the for the first 3 weeks

Problem is, i don't talk about the total. That chart show Switch sold something in between the 250-350K range for the month, honestly i tried to calculate it and what i got was around 300k for NA the first 3 weeks of January... but Zedark has 270k and since i want to be conservate, i use his numbers, and well, using 270k for NA first 3 weeks, there is no way USA is less than 230/240k... so for the total month of January, with 5 weeks to go, numbers are gonna be way better than my original 250k prediction.

how did you get 300K for based on the chart?  the chart includes all of north america, switch was 2.3 million as of september 30, it was at 209k in canada, if we use the same math to how much they increased  in the USA switch should be very well around 430k in canada after the holidays, that would put it at 5.3 million, then you probably have another 50k sold sold through in other places in north america region, plus another 10k, in canada, i don't see how your numbers are that high for the first 3 weeks.

Last edited by quickrick - on 15 February 2018

nemo37 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I think, and Ryng-Tolu can correct me if I am wrong here, that the baseline was meant to be based on demand. Obviously, we cannot see if the prediction holds true if the supply is not there to show us (right now the supply in Japan dictates the baseline). The Switch seems to be selling around 40K per week in Japan because that is the weekly supply that Nintendo ships (and often runs out in a few days).

according to people living in japan, switch is easily found, its not available in every store but there is stock many stores, if demand was much higher it would be sold out everywhere.  

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.



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quickrick on 15 February 2018
nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

according to people living in japan, switch is easily found, its not available in every store but there is stock many stores, if demand was much higher it would be sold out everywhere.  

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

I honestly believe shortages are artificial in japan at this point, nintedo forcast is 950k a month shipped, yet switch is still sold out in some store, which doesn't make any sense.

Last edited by quickrick - on 15 February 2018

zorg1000 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

So low stock & out of stock means easy to find to you?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

Problem is, i don't talk about the total. That chart show Switch sold something in between the 250-350K range for the month, honestly i tried to calculate it and what i got was around 300k for NA the first 3 weeks of January... but Zedark has 270k and since i want to be conservate, i use his numbers, and well, using 270k for NA first 3 weeks, there is no way USA is less than 230/240k... so for the total month of January, with 5 weeks to go, numbers are gonna be way better than my original 250k prediction.

how did you get 300K for based on the chart? for the chart includes all of north america, switch was 2.3 million as of september 30, it was at 209k nn canada, if use the math to how much they increased  in the USA switch should be very well around 430k in canada after the holidays, that would put it at 5.3 million, then you probably have another 50k sold sold through in other places in north america, plus another 10k, in canada, i don't how your numbers are that high.

Alright, just watch closely the last 3 weeks

That is clearly something in the 300k range or close to it.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 15 February 2018



nemo37 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

But that post shows that it is out of stock. BTW, the original photo was taken by Serkan Toto of Kantan Games (a video game consultancy group in Japan), and he has in no way stated that the system is easy to find.

For this week specifically, Yodobashi got some stock that sold out in about a day. BIC recently received stock and I am watching to see how long it takes for it to sell out, and Amazon got larger Neon stock and less Grey Stock (Grey sold out fairly quickly).