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quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I think, and Ryng-Tolu can correct me if I am wrong here, that the baseline was meant to be based on demand. Obviously, we cannot see if the prediction holds true if the supply is not there to show us (right now the supply in Japan dictates the baseline). The Switch seems to be selling around 40K per week in Japan because that is the weekly supply that Nintendo ships (and often runs out in a few days).

according to people living in japan, switch is easily found, its not available in every store but there is stock many stores, if demand was much higher it would be sold out everywhere.  

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.