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Forums - Politics Discussion - Half the Venezuelan economy has disappeared

torok said:
Leadified said:

China is definitely the main economic adversary to the US, since Russia's economy is only the size of Australia's. But I would lump China and Russia together because while they're not technically allies, both powers have been working together against the US. Russian or Chinese actions are often followed upon by each other since they are much stronger together than separate. China has the money, Russia has the connections.

As you said with Trump, he has created an opening for his rivals to swoop in and I'm sure they will do everything in their power so Trump's successor will be helpless to stop them.

Russia is, at least, way more keen in directly challenging the US. China is more reserved, but it is quickly challenging the US economic hegemony. Russia is in a relative economic crisis. But yes, they seem to be on the same page and share a common "enemy", so they will pretty much act together from now on. China also is not only in a good economic situation, but they also have their most powerful leader in decades. Jinping is clearly intending to change China's status as local power to a global superpower. Even in Latin America, it's incredible how much China is investing. And I'm really not complaining, for most countries here it is great to diversify economic relations. The US and the EU are always trying to protect their own agriculture while demanding lower taxes for their own products. I think Latin countries will be able to negotiate better terms with China. The US always treated the region as an afterthought and focused on its OTAN friends, so maybe it's time for the emergent countries to negotiate with each other instead of dealing with the old geopolitics.

I got to say that people in the US should be more cautious about Trump. It's clear now that Putin employed a lot of effort and money in rigging the US elections to make Trump win. He risked a diplomatic crisis when doing so. The only remaining question is what was Trump's role on this mess. Is he just an useful idiot, so Putin wanted him to win so he would take the US in bad directions and weaken its global influence? Or is he somewhat connected to the Russians, which has some serious implications? I also believe that Trump could actually be innocent, but Putin manipulated the situation to make it look otherwise. The thing here is that Trump is not that brilliant and has zero experience with politics (being a businessman is a whole different thing), while Putin is an extremely capable politician and manipulator. I think people fail to realize how dangerous Putin can be when you're his enemy.

Yeah, I think that's fair and double that on Putin. Russia may be weak economically but that has not stopped Putin from exerting his politics in a way that was not thought possible only just a few years ago.



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palou said:
Pemalite said:

Citation needed.
Australia produces more food than it consumes.

We also have a ton of resources to be energy and resource self-sufficient (Which we also export to the USA), tons of Uranium and Coal, Iron Ore coming out of our Posteriors... Oil and Gas? Sure do.
Plus... We have the advantage of a smaller population to reduce the strain on all of the resources on this continent.

However... Despite that we will still import food and resources if it's cheaper, that doesn't mean we are reliant on those countries... It just makes us financially prudent.

Economically self-sufficient, I mine. Sure, you could survive alone. Would you be able to sustain an economy anywhere close to what you currently hold? No, certainly not. The majority of the value of consumer products purchased in Australia (phones, cars, clothes, etc...) are foreign (as is the case everywhere), and Australia certainly does *not* have the capacity to sustain that within its borders, either.

Looking through the data, yeah... US isn't either. Closer, though. Mostly just by being bigger, lol.

We aren't heavy with manufacturing. We are a resources and services driven economy, that's partially a good thing as we don't need to concern ourselves with trying to compete with China.

But that doesn't mean if the day Australia was to "go it alone" that we couldn't, we do have all the resources we need.
We also do manufacture Clothes, in-fact we have been very successful with our surf brands world-wide like Billabong, Ripcurl. - Even Quicksilver started in Australia before having American claws sunk into them. :P

Car manufacturing (Holden and Toyota) ceased a few years ago, but we do still manufacture vehicles in a small capacity (Military, specialized, market specific and so on).
Ford Australia still has design and development facilities, meaning we are one of the few countries that can design, develop and manufacture mass market cars from absolute scratch if we wanted.

Where we do come up short though is silicon/electronics/processors, we don't have any fabs.



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Pemalite said:
palou said:

Economically self-sufficient, I mine. Sure, you could survive alone. Would you be able to sustain an economy anywhere close to what you currently hold? No, certainly not. The majority of the value of consumer products purchased in Australia (phones, cars, clothes, etc...) are foreign (as is the case everywhere), and Australia certainly does *not* have the capacity to sustain that within its borders, either.

Looking through the data, yeah... US isn't either. Closer, though. Mostly just by being bigger, lol.

We aren't heavy with manufacturing. We are a resources and services driven economy, that's partially a good thing as we don't need to concern ourselves with trying to compete with China.

But that doesn't mean if the day Australia was to "go it alone" that we couldn't, we do have all the resources we need.
We also do manufacture Clothes, in-fact we have been very successful with our surf brands world-wide like Billabong, Ripcurl. - Even Quicksilver started in Australia before having American claws sunk into them. :P

Car manufacturing (Holden and Toyota) ceased a few years ago, but we do still manufacture vehicles in a small capacity (Military, specialized, market specific and so on).
Ford Australia still has design and development facilities, meaning we are one of the few countries that can design, develop and manufacture mass market cars from absolute scratch if we wanted.

Where we do come up short though is silicon/electronics/processors, we don't have any fabs.

I mean yes, you participate *somewhere* in the process of manufacturing modern consumer good, and designing, and etc... but the point is, so does everyone else. 

 

This kind of stuff:

 

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4f613010-73bc-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9?source=next&quality=highest&width=700

 

And each of those parts could certainly be broken down further, where you'd start seeing non-EU countries start to pop up.

 

The enormous efficiency of the modern economy stems from hyper-specialization, something that could certainly not be scaled down to a country the size of Australia effectively.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

palou said:

I mean yes, you participate *somewhere* in the process of manufacturing modern consumer good, and designing, and etc... but the point is, so does everyone else. 

 

This kind of stuff:

 

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4f613010-73bc-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9?source=next&quality=highest&width=700

 

And each of those parts could certainly be broken down further, where you'd start seeing non-EU countries start to pop up.

 

The enormous efficiency of the modern economy stems from hyper-specialization, something that could certainly not be scaled down to a country the size of Australia effectively.

We were manufacturing ALL the smaller specialized components for vehicles rather than importing them for decades. And we can return to that at any time, those factory's still exist, just in a reduced fashion... And are actually being switched over to doing components for the military as our car manufacturing industry winds down.

The way we did it was a company like Holden would re-use various components over multiple vehicle releases, which helped reduce the financial cost over the long term.
For instance... A bonnet on one Holden commodore would be re-used on 3-4 later vehicle releases and thus be in production for 5+ years.

We don't actually have Nuclear Energy either, we have all the technology to build Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power Plants and we have one of the largest Uranium reserves in the world... The potential is there if the need ever arises.

The EU is far different to that of Australia though, there are dozens and dozens of smaller countries all sharing a land border with each other and many have integrated their markets with one another, Australia doesn't have that Luxury, with the exception of New Zealand to a smaller degree.

Just remember though, just because a country imports something, doesn't mean they can't be self sufficient, it just makes them financially prudent.



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Leadified said:
DarthVolod said:

Oversimplification there. Yes, the country has had major economic problems and a economic cycle of sorts since the 1980's, but virtually everything has been tried to attempt to tinker with and "fix" the economy. That is the essence of the problem, chronic interference in the economy so far as I see it. 

Good article I found on the subject: https://revista.drclas.harvard.edu/book/venezuela-1980s-1990s-and-beyond 

The essence of the problem is oil and it will always be a problem until Venezuela develops it's economy which will not happen without government intervention.


Perhaps they should move away from the whole nationalization thing since that is not working out for them ... 40 years ago it was not nationalized ... is not like they could never go back. 

I'm also pretty sure Venezuela could diversify itself without government intervention if only it was given the opportunity. Maybe if its people were not starving they would have the chance be entrepreneurs...



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DarthVolod said:
Leadified said:

The essence of the problem is oil and it will always be a problem until Venezuela develops it's economy which will not happen without government intervention.


Perhaps they should move away from the whole nationalization thing since that is not working out for them ... 40 years ago it was not nationalized ... is not like they could never go back. 

I'm also pretty sure Venezuela could diversify itself without government intervention if only it was given the opportunity. Maybe if its people were not starving they would have the chance be entrepreneurs...

It's not as easy as you put it. Widespread privatization could very well lead to the same thing that happened in Russia in the 1990s, and Russia was not as dependent on one export as Venezuela is. Things are extreme right now in the country so a solution is not simple, for now they can probably only hope for oil to go up.



Leadified said:
DarthVolod said:

Perhaps they should move away from the whole nationalization thing since that is not working out for them ... 40 years ago it was not nationalized ... is not like they could never go back. 

I'm also pretty sure Venezuela could diversify itself without government intervention if only it was given the opportunity. Maybe if its people were not starving they would have the chance be entrepreneurs...

It's not as easy as you put it. Widespread privatization could very well lead to the same thing that happened in Russia in the 1990s, and Russia was not as dependent on one export as Venezuela is. Things are extreme right now in the country so a solution is not simple, for now they can probably only hope for oil to go up.

This we can agree on. The country can't pivot to something so different without a lot of time and effort. Would be like a meth addict going cold turkey.