By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: Japan will drive Nintendo Switch sales and sell more in the region than in the U.S.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
How do Skyrim and Doom fit into this analysis?

The Gamecube had a pretty decent catalogue of Western third-party titles.  The Wii was a more casual-focused system and the Wii U was a market failure, so both of these systems basically repelled a lot of potential support.

The Switch fares well power and graphics-wise while also being a market success, so naturally you'll see more support for it.



Around the Network
cosmic_drift said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
How do Skyrim and Doom fit into this analysis?

The Gamecube had a pretty decent catalogue of Western third-party titles.  The Wii was a more casual-focused system and the Wii U was a market failure, so both of these systems basically repelled a lot of potential support.

The Switch fares well power and graphics-wise while also being a market success, so naturally you'll see more support for it.

I agree that the Switch will have more support than the 3DS.  Doesn't this mean that it will also sell better than the 3DS?



The_Liquid_Laser said:
cosmic_drift said:

The Gamecube had a pretty decent catalogue of Western third-party titles.  The Wii was a more casual-focused system and the Wii U was a market failure, so both of these systems basically repelled a lot of potential support.

The Switch fares well power and graphics-wise while also being a market success, so naturally you'll see more support for it.

I agree that the Switch will have more support than the 3DS.  Doesn't this mean that it will also sell better than the 3DS?

If the Switch is truly a consolidation of Nintendo's home/handheld console sectors, then naturally we'll see more software developed for the system (since all of their resources will essentially be dedicated to one platform), thus quantity and diversity of software = more sales.  So yes, I think the Switch has a pretty good chance of outselling the 3DS.



I predicted this prediction would come once people saw how well it was maintaining itself in Japan. Someone was bound to believe it will not sell as well in the other regions and be a mega success in Japan.

Vita was actual competition for 3DS in Japan by the way. It is not like the market situation was the same in Japan as in the United States (for example) in terms of 3DS and Vita.



01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01001001 01111001 01101111 01101100 01100001 01101000 00100001 00100000 01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01000101 01110100 01100101 01110010 01101110 01101001 01110100 01111001 00100001 00100000

GhaudePhaede010 said:
I predicted this prediction would come once people saw how well it was maintaining itself in Japan. Someone was bound to believe it will not sell as well in the other regions and be a mega success in Japan.

Vita was actual competition for 3DS in Japan by the way. It is not like the market situation was the same in Japan as in the United States (for example) in terms of 3DS and Vita.

I wasn't necessarily insisting that the Switch wouldn't do well in the West but let's be honest, most of Nintendo's properties have always been rather Japan-centric (which is okay), with most of their popularity in the West coming from the universally popular franchises i.e. Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, etc.

I know many people are caught up in the Switch's success, and it will definitely be a success in the West, but for the most part that region is pretty much landlocked by Sony/MS.



Around the Network

I don't see it. I know the 3DS' near 70 million units sold sounds impressive on paper, and it is. But the system consistently struggled outside Japan. It never made itself clear to the masses, why, or how it was different from your smartphone. It struggled to get reliable third party support, and never lived up to its predecessor's name. Honestly, it's a miracle it was able to sell this much to begin with considering all the mistakes Nintendo made with it. The Switch is a much more appealing and better executed concept with must have games in its first year, which is a big reason why its selling so well in the US.



cosmic_drift said:

As of right now, the 3DS is the first Nintendo console to have sold more in Japan than in the U.S.

10 Nintendo 3DS (3DS) 21.89 19.05 23.50 3.83 68.27

...And because the Switch is also a handheld, with virtually no competition in its respective sector, it would seem like a no-brainer that the console will be more popular in Japan than in the West.

However, I think the biggest takeaway from this is that the biggest games for the platform (sales-wise) will be Japanese games, not Western ones.  While the Switch will benefit from more third-party support, no matter what region it originates, I really think we should be keeping a Japanese perspective when looking at this console.  We shouldn't be surprised if some of the bigger AAA Western games skip the console, or if they do come to the console they fail to find an audience as big as it would on the PS4 or XBOX One. 

Nintendo has their home region in the bag, and I don't think we should be worried about the long-term prospects of the system if the Switch fails to secure every third-party game on the market.

Your math is wrong from beginning, because in Japan Switch is handheld also, but in US Switch is also home console while 3DS was only handheld, so Switch could easily have bigger popularity in US than 3DS had.

Talking about games sales, for instance Zelda BotW is far more popular in US compared to Japan.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 28 December 2017

I don't think It's gonna play out like that. Nintendo wants the NS to do better in the US compared to Japan because It's a much bigger market and if it does well in the US, it has a decent shot in Europe. WW sales matter alot more than any lone region.



I actually wanna say that this is not gonna happen. Never bet against Nintendo is the main thing Iver learned from the company. They seem to be able to defy expectations time and time again. Look at the Wii. It was a phenomenon but not expected. The Wii U defied the expectations of being their next massive console and then the Switch itself has defied Nintendo and Analysts own expectation. Switch will do fine on the US and Japan will help offset sales in Europe a little bit.

I do think they should cut the price when they release Pokemon though and keep it at that price, even of its just at £249.99



cosmic_drift said:
GhaudePhaede010 said:
I predicted this prediction would come once people saw how well it was maintaining itself in Japan. Someone was bound to believe it will not sell as well in the other regions and be a mega success in Japan.

Vita was actual competition for 3DS in Japan by the way. It is not like the market situation was the same in Japan as in the United States (for example) in terms of 3DS and Vita.

I wasn't necessarily insisting that the Switch wouldn't do well in the West but let's be honest, most of Nintendo's properties have always been rather Japan-centric (which is okay), with most of their popularity in the West coming from the universally popular franchises i.e. Mario, Pokemon, Zelda, etc.

I know many people are caught up in the Switch's success, and it will definitely be a success in the West, but for the most part that region is pretty much landlocked by Sony/MS.

How is this prediction coming along? Horribly? Yeah, thought so.



01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01001001 01111001 01101111 01101100 01100001 01101000 00100001 00100000 01000110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01000101 01110100 01100101 01110010 01101110 01101001 01110100 01111001 00100001 00100000