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Forums - Movies & TV - The Fans Have Spoken, Last Jedi Drops A Massive 68%

pikashoe said:

Aeolus451 said: 

I disagree. They tend to give dramas or films that promote pc, critical acclaim while rarely giving any film from those genre a passing grade. These critics are no different than the guys behind the art or fashion scenes. They live within an echo chamber and they value their own opinions too much. They might as well live on another world with out of touch they are with the consumers on those products. 

Get out, the babadook, it follows, cabin in the woods, the Witch, the conjuring 1+2, the guest, it, just to name a few recent examples that have all got good reviews. The thing with the horror genre is that it tends to be  dominated by low budget cash grabs. When genuinly good horror films are made they tend to be well reviewed.

I didn't say that all horror movies get bad reviews or anything. They tend to get alot of bad reviews by critics which is true. Comedy is worse in that sense though. You're right that the horror genre tends to have alot of low budget films but that doesn't necessarily make them bad movies or good ones. Personally, alot of the movies that I like are given bad reviews by critics and most of the critically acclaimed film tend to bore the shit out of me. That's where my opinion on this comes from. Generally, I don't trust critics on films. User reviews/ratings tend to be more consistent with what i like.  



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Looking back on it, $936 million domestic for The Force Awakens is an absurd number.

That's more than Titanic's domestic gross in 1997 inflation adjusted. 

Maybe we are also underrating at least in North America what a phenomenon that TFA was. I'm not sure if we'll see a movie that tops $800 million domestic for a long time. Avatar 2 has the best chance and I'm not sure if the audence is as enthusiastic about that concept anymore, nor is 3D a big deal any more.



NightlyPoe said:
thismeintiel said:

And no, my argument comes down to an obvious fan backlash, which has manifested itself in low user ratings, countless negative YouTube videos and tweets, and a massive drop in BO revenue.

Then why didn't your prediction of a 40% drop last weekend happen?  If the movie is being soundly rejected, wouldn't it continue to fall like a stone?  Maybe, just maybe, there exist alternative options that account for it all.  The simple fact is that not performing as well as The Force Awakens was predictable.  You're taking a data point and projecting your own opinion as the only explanation.

I've already answered your question about why Disney kept the dates.  Despite The Force Awakens having an absolutely perfect calendar, the holidays remain a lucrative box office season due to the bonus weekday numbers that perform similarly to a typical weekend.  That, and Christmas is obviously the best time to sell merchandise.  If they wanted to wait around for another perfect storm, they'd have to sit on their hands for several years.  The best second option would be to open in the summer, which they actually wanted to do for TFA, Rogue One, and TLJ, but each of the movies had small delays and they pushed back the release.

The fact is, you really don't know anything about how box office works.  Amazingly, you're comparing Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back early numbers.  As if you can compare a movie that was nursed in the old slow release pattern that people didn't realize was an absolute phenomenon until it had been in theaters for months to a sequel to the biggest movie of all-time.

Yes, Star Wars is an American phenomenon primarily.  Sheesh, everyone with a passing knowledge of box office knows that.

Oh, and a little hint for life.  YouTube knows your history and shows you what you want to see.  If you've been clicking on videos and searching for negative opinions about The Last Jedi, then YouTube is going to keep feeding those to you.  The world does not agree with you to the degree that the automatic echo chambers of the internet would have you believe.

Wait, so are you going ignore that you predicted a dismal weekend this past weekend, too (which it still kinda was, just not as dismal.)  Guess you don't know how it works, either.

I guess New Year's Eve weekend actually gives movies a boost. Interestingly, only 3 movies in the Top 20 saw a decline. Guess which one saw the worst. And couldn't hit BOM's prediction of it only being 18%-20% down. And those guys have been doing this for almost 2 decades. Kinda sad when a sequel to Jumanji, a movie that was big, but not huge, can almost match the 3rd weekend of a main installment in the largest movie franchise ever. And not with its 1st weekend, but it's 2nd weekend. Even the spinoff Rogue One's 3rd weekend was close to matching it.

So, wait, it was expected for ESB to up after 13 weeks, a little over 3 months, against one of the most successful films in history, but it was also expected that TLJ would be so dismally down from TFA, one of the most successful films in history?  And ESB wasn't exactly the most front loaded films. By week 5, TFA had already made $852.3M, or 91% of its BO. ESB made 77% of its BO after week 5. That just how films behaved back then.

Of course, as we entered the 80's things began to change. Home video started creeping in slowly, including VHS (and to a lesser extent the almost endless video formats that sprung up around that time), TV broadcasts, and pay-per-view. But, society seemed to change, too. Whether it was because we just weren't willing to go to the theaters to see a movie that had been out longer than a year. Or theaters weren't willing to keep them in as long, to make way for new movies that would make them more money.  Or a combination of the two. This is the atmosphere ESB launched in. Sure, it wasn't as far gone as it is today, or even the 90s,  but things were starting to change.

Now, the industry has changed to accommodate for that, where they use a bunch of time and money to get trailers just right, so they get us hyped to see movies opening weekend. And movies just don't stay in any longer then 35-40 weeks, even if they're big hits. Hell, most don't even hit 25 weeks, now. It doesn't really change the potential for a movie to make money, though, it just makes them more front loaded. 

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 01 January 2018

pikashoe said:

Aeolus451 said: 

I disagree. They tend to give dramas or films that promote pc, critical acclaim while rarely giving any film from those genre a passing grade. These critics are no different than the guys behind the art or fashion scenes. They live within an echo chamber and they value their own opinions too much. They might as well live on another world with out of touch they are with the consumers on those products. 

Get out, the babadook, it follows, cabin in the woods, the Witch, the conjuring 1+2, the guest, it, just to name a few recent examples that have all got good reviews. The thing with the horror genre is that it tends to be  dominated by low budget cash grabs. When genuinly good horror films are made they tend to be well reviewed.

Well said, critics hating horror movies is a huge myth based on nothing more than the fact that most horror movies are horrible.



Soundwave said:

Looking back on it, $936 million domestic for The Force Awakens is an absurd number.

That's more than Titanic's domestic gross in 1997 inflation adjusted. 

Maybe we are also underrating at least in North America what a phenomenon that TFA was. I'm not sure if we'll see a movie that tops $800 million domestic for a long time. Avatar 2 has the best chance and I'm not sure if the audence is as enthusiastic about that concept anymore, nor is 3D a big deal any more.

Uh, just a quick correction, but ticket inflation adjusted, Titanic made more than $1.14B in the US. I get what you're saying, though. It's going to take an event movie to clear that. However, if TLJ had been good and a majority crowd pleaser, I have no doubt it could have come close to that $800M. Maybe have hit $750M. At least matched ESB's $704M, inflation adjusted. 



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I don't think that much changed by 1980. A VCR was still a rare item at that point and the catalog of films was tiny. I doubt even 1-2% of the US/UK had a VCR at that point. 

VCR revolution doesn't really set in until about 1983/84 that's when mass adoption began to happen rapidly. 

Also "home video sales" wasn't really a thing then either. Yeah you could rent a movie but the VHS/Beta tapes to "buy" a movie cost like $100+ (80s money). The idea of selling the movie directly to the consumer actually didn't become a common thing until the late 80s. Like you couldn't just walk into a K-Mart and buy Star Wars on VHS, the way you can buy movies today, you could rent the movie and that was it. 

I know this, I grew up in the 80s and on top of that my family owned a video rental store, so I'd spend like all weekend there. I remember it all, VHS, Beta, getting posters for things like Rocky III, Robocop, The Terminator, etc. We rented not only movies but the VCRs themselves (VHS or Beta). 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 01 January 2018

I'm not really sure how theater cuts are reported. Maybe going into the next weekend? I just know my son's theater just cut TLJ from 5-6 theaters down to 1. My guess is a few theaters are going to be doing the same this week. Like I said above, TFA at this point in time had already made 80% of its domestic take. Not sure if TLJ is going to leg it out quite as long as TFA, so it may very well have already made 83%-85% of its domestic take.



thismeintiel said:
I'm not really sure how theater cuts are reported. Maybe going into the next weekend? I just know my son's theater just cut TLJ from 5-6 theaters down to 1. My guess is a few theaters are going to be doing the same this week. Like I said above, TFA at this point in time had already made 80% of its domestic take. Not sure if TLJ is going to leg it out quite as long as TFA, so it may very well have already made 83%-85% of its domestic take.

Seems somewhat dubious to me. Your son's theater cut 5/6 TLJ's screens to show what? Nothing of note opened last Friday and nothing of note is opening this coming weekend. 



thismeintiel said:
Azuren said:

And you'd have to have ignored the media for years to believe people don't lose their jobs for not being PC.

Take a look at Bright. Critics hate it, yet users seemed to have enjoyed it. It's almost the polar opposite of this situation. Personally, I think the only reason that they hated on Bright is because the writer, Max Landis, had the audacity (read common sense) to call Rey a Mary Sue on Twitter. 

Then explain why the movie has only a 5.2 on Filmaffinity among 5000 votes, are those people mad at him for calling Rey a Mary Sue? Or maybe many people just think is pretty weak? Your arguments can't get any worse, I saw Bright yesterday and it was really bad, didn't even know who the writter was or how much critics liked it, i just know what I saw was a mess.



Rey is Harry Potter or Neo of Star Wars. Not so catchy now, huh? Those characters are Gary Stus.

Or more common as a fictional archetype the chosen one, golden child, etc. It's not even a rare character in fantasy tropes.

People acting like this is some kind of "new thing" is laughable. The truth is the only real difference is it's a chick.