NightlyPoe said:
Then why didn't your prediction of a 40% drop last weekend happen? If the movie is being soundly rejected, wouldn't it continue to fall like a stone? Maybe, just maybe, there exist alternative options that account for it all. The simple fact is that not performing as well as The Force Awakens was predictable. You're taking a data point and projecting your own opinion as the only explanation. I've already answered your question about why Disney kept the dates. Despite The Force Awakens having an absolutely perfect calendar, the holidays remain a lucrative box office season due to the bonus weekday numbers that perform similarly to a typical weekend. That, and Christmas is obviously the best time to sell merchandise. If they wanted to wait around for another perfect storm, they'd have to sit on their hands for several years. The best second option would be to open in the summer, which they actually wanted to do for TFA, Rogue One, and TLJ, but each of the movies had small delays and they pushed back the release. The fact is, you really don't know anything about how box office works. Amazingly, you're comparing Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back early numbers. As if you can compare a movie that was nursed in the old slow release pattern that people didn't realize was an absolute phenomenon until it had been in theaters for months to a sequel to the biggest movie of all-time. Yes, Star Wars is an American phenomenon primarily. Sheesh, everyone with a passing knowledge of box office knows that. Oh, and a little hint for life. YouTube knows your history and shows you what you want to see. If you've been clicking on videos and searching for negative opinions about The Last Jedi, then YouTube is going to keep feeding those to you. The world does not agree with you to the degree that the automatic echo chambers of the internet would have you believe. |
Wait, so are you going ignore that you predicted a dismal weekend this past weekend, too (which it still kinda was, just not as dismal.) Guess you don't know how it works, either. 
I guess New Year's Eve weekend actually gives movies a boost. Interestingly, only 3 movies in the Top 20 saw a decline. Guess which one saw the worst. And couldn't hit BOM's prediction of it only being 18%-20% down. And those guys have been doing this for almost 2 decades. Kinda sad when a sequel to Jumanji, a movie that was big, but not huge, can almost match the 3rd weekend of a main installment in the largest movie franchise ever. And not with its 1st weekend, but it's 2nd weekend. Even the spinoff Rogue One's 3rd weekend was close to matching it.
So, wait, it was expected for ESB to up after 13 weeks, a little over 3 months, against one of the most successful films in history, but it was also expected that TLJ would be so dismally down from TFA, one of the most successful films in history? And ESB wasn't exactly the most front loaded films. By week 5, TFA had already made $852.3M, or 91% of its BO. ESB made 77% of its BO after week 5. That just how films behaved back then.
Of course, as we entered the 80's things began to change. Home video started creeping in slowly, including VHS (and to a lesser extent the almost endless video formats that sprung up around that time), TV broadcasts, and pay-per-view. But, society seemed to change, too. Whether it was because we just weren't willing to go to the theaters to see a movie that had been out longer than a year. Or theaters weren't willing to keep them in as long, to make way for new movies that would make them more money. Or a combination of the two. This is the atmosphere ESB launched in. Sure, it wasn't as far gone as it is today, or even the 90s, but things were starting to change.
Now, the industry has changed to accommodate for that, where they use a bunch of time and money to get trailers just right, so they get us hyped to see movies opening weekend. And movies just don't stay in any longer then 35-40 weeks, even if they're big hits. Hell, most don't even hit 25 weeks, now. It doesn't really change the potential for a movie to make money, though, it just makes them more front loaded.
Last edited by thismeintiel - on 01 January 2018
