Shadow1980 said:
numberwang said:
Empire was released in the second oil crisis and the US had only 230M inhabitants.
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Record-high gas prices are a better explanation than the VCR. People may have been less likely to drive to the theater in 1980 with gas approaching nearly $4/gallon in today's money, especially with cars having shitty gas mileage compared to what they get today. Adjusted box office revenues did start to steadily rise throughout the 80s & 90s, despite increasing competition from home video, cable TV, and video games. That's why I don't buy the argument that the VCR was responsible for ESB doing worse than ANH. Not only was ESB in theaters at a time when hardly anyone had a VCR, but people were going to the theater more and more despite home video and newer types of media becoming an increasingly popular thing. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices were on a long-term decline throughout the 80s & 90s, concurrent with the aforementioned long-term rise in movie ticket sales. And box office revenues took a hit in 2005, a year when gas prices really started to spike, and never really recovered. Between, January 2005 and July 2008, the national monthly average for a gallon of gas grew from $1.57 to $4.06. And while we did get a break at the pumps during the recession, gas remained above $3/gallon from Jan. 2011 to Oct. 2014.
The gasoline theory has weaknesses of its own, though. Gas prices cratered in fall 2014 thanks to the shale oil boom, bottoming out at $1.76/gallon in Feb. 2016, and averaging in the $2-$2.60 range for most of the past two years. Not as cheap as it was in the 90s, but keeping a vehicle fueled is a lot cheaper than it used to be, especially with more fuel-efficient vehicles being more commonplace. However, this hasn't resulted in increased ticket sales. Also, the overall correlation isn't so strong as to suggest that gas prices are a primary driver. At best, it is a contributing factor. Honestly, the whole situation is more complicated than it looks, and honestly I could write an entire article about the factors driving box office trends (in fact, I've been thinking of doing just that). But in any case, the idea that VCRs were the reason ESB didn't do nearly as well as ANH is an incredibly weak one. ANH was simply something totally unlike anything that came before, and it set the movie-going world on fire. It was and still is the second most successful film ever after Gone With the Wind, and there was no way any sequel could match it, VCRs or not.
As for the smaller population at the time, 1980 was also a time when the really big multiplex theaters that are now common were much rarer, and smaller theaters more common. So, there was likely less to pick from at any given time, though I can't say for sure. But we do know that ANH's only real competition for the entire spring & summer of '77 was Smoky & The Bandit, and ESB's only real competition was... well, it didn't really have any until Airplane was released a month later, and that only grossed less than half what ESB did. Going even further back, when my parents were kids, theaters often had just one screen, maybe two, so if you wanted to see a movie your selections were often limited to how many theaters your town had.
There's a reason why so many of the films with the highest inflation-adjusted grosses (excluding revenue from re-releases) were released prior to 1980, and, considering what we saw with the box office in the 80s & 90s, I doubt home video is the culprit. The only films released in the past 40 years (meaning everything past ANH) to do over a billion in adjusted box office revenues were E.T. and Titanic (TFA came close, grossing well over $900M). This tells me that it takes a very special movie to do these kind of numbers, especially in modern times. It's more likely that increased competition among movies themselves rather than between theaters and other formats/forms of entertainment is responsible for the relative paucity of movies making close to or over a billion in adjusted revenues over the past four decades as opposed to the previous four decades. Big spectacles like Star Wars are a lot more common than they used to be, and sometimes they get crammed into relatively narrow time frames, which is sometimes cited as a possible reason why some big, anticipated, well-received films end up underperforming at the box office.
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