Yeah, about that...

An estimated 67% drop, much more steep than predicted, on its second week for a total less than 10% above Rogue One's second week. I think there are two main possibilities after that:

1) Episode VIII continues its steep drop after the huge first weekend, more like a DC movie than an acclaimed Disney movie. Ends up around 500-550 million domestic and 1-1.1 billion worldwide, the worst SW movie ever on the (adjusted) box office except for Episode II and maybe Rogue One. Investment return is probably below 25% for Disney.

2) It sort of follows Rogue One numbers from now on as people take winter holidays etc. to watch it, so it doesn't drop much on the third weekend. Manages 650-700 million domestic and 1.3-1.4 billion worldwide. It manages to actually make more money than Episode III or Rogue One. Investment return is over 50% for Disney. Fair, but below their expectations for SW.

1.5 billion is probably fanciful at this point specially since it would mean close to 750 million on NA, which isn't going to happen. Perhaps somehow the movie finds more than 50-55% of its audience elsewhere, but it's very unlikely after SW failing for over 40 years to do so.

Could you give some examples.

All I know is the Cinemasins/Honest Trailer/How It Should Have Ended for this film is going to be the best thing, ever!

That's what they said about Episode VII, the repercussion will be noticed in Ep VIII, guess what? It didn't.

Is it?  I think this is going to be like your Justice League prediction.  You know, where you thought it was still going to do great, yet now looks like it won't even hit $700M, even struggle to get much pass $650M. 

Personally, I wouldn't be so sure about that $1.5B.  We're going to get a better picture after this weekend, especially once WW numbers get in, but at least for the US, it's going to finish massively down from TFA.  It's only been a week from release and it is already $120M down from TFA.  It's just going to keep going down further and further.  To compare 2nd Fridays, TFA was down 59% from opening Friday, while TLJ is down a massive 76%.  And keep in mind, that TLJ started out lower, so a larger drop is actually a little harder to pull off.  That's even much worse than the other two movies BOM is comparing it to, Jurassic World (65%) and Avengers (64%.)

This is not the result Disney wanted.  I'm sure they expected it to be down a little compared to TFA in the end, like Avengers: AOU was down ~$114M, or ~8%, from Avengers WW, but not this bad.

Even most of the SW fans who liked the film will know what I'm talking about. Here's one of the main ones that are easy to point out. The MC is able to use force abilities she wasn't trained to use and better than others who were trained in them. No matter how powerful someone is in the force, they have to train to use them. She also has knowledge of things like language or tech that she shouldn't know considering where and how she was raised. The force doesn't grant knowledge like how to fight with a lightsaber. It's a mix of intuition, sensing things and feelings. Someone has to be trained in it to use most of the abilities.

Fair enough.

You realize that most people gave TFA a small pass because they thought its flaws, mainly unanswered questions and an overpowered Rey, would be addressed in the sequel.  Well, they weren't.  Which now means that people not only dislike this movie in droves, but they also are going to start looking at TFA a little less favorably for those flaws.  Though, on a competency level, it's still far superior to this one.

Also, if you want to just look at opening weekends, TFA did $529M ($248M US and $281M Others), while TLJ did $450M WW ($220M US and $230M Others.)  That's down by ~$80M.  You could say part of that is the letdown of TFA, though a lot of it is because TFA was helped by it being the first SW in a long time.  No, this film has gotten a big boost from being a SW movie, BUT it will still fail to meet expectations because of its own merits, or lack thereof.  This weekend it could see one of the largest drops in movie history.  It's already on its way with a WOW Fri drop of 76%.  That's 17 percentile points more than TFA.  If the same gap applies to its Sat and Sun drops, then its looking at a drop of ~52%+.  That's worse than the 49% and 50% drops JW and Avnegers saw, respectively, and quite a bit down from the 40% TFA saw.  Of course, 52% is optimistic, and I think its drop is going to be larger than that.  Possibly ~55%-60%.

If you overanalize the old movies to death you will find tons of plot holes and little things that doesn't make sense, but why would anyone do that to beggin with? They are great movies anyways. Of course nobody does that cause the old trilogy is sacred an untouchable but the new ones, that have no nostalgia attached and are made by Disney, need to be destroyed because reasons. Star wars is a a saga full of fantasy and unexplicable things that puts the enjoyment and the cinematographic experience above the writting, and this has always been like this, from the first one, they were initially made for 12 year old kids, they never pretended to be the fucking Goodfather, why does people now take them as they were the most serious movies ever or some kind of high literature?