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thismeintiel on 23 December 2017
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Goodnightmoon said:
d21lewis said:

Even if somebody dislikes a movie, it still gets our money. 

 

DCEU has a track record for subpar movies. Even if they make a good one, odds are pretty good that it'll struggle. Meanwhile Marvel has the opposite reputation. People line up to see franchises they've never even heard of just because it's tied to the MCU.

This latest Star Wars isn't getting by on its own merit. It's a big deal because it's the next official installment of the franchise people have loved for decades. People are going to go see it regardless. We won't see the effects of this one until the next film--a similar thing happened with Star Trek.

 

In other words, Star Wars is Nintendo. It's Harry Potter. It's got hardcore fans ready to love it and casual fans that will enjoy it, too. Casual fans may even outnumber the hardcore. You still don't burn the hardcore fans, though. Those are the ones pushing the brand and making the casual fan curious why it's such a big deal. 

That's what they said about Episode VII, the repercussion will be noticed in Ep VIII, guess what? It didn't.

You realize that most people gave TFA a small pass because they thought its flaws, mainly unanswered questions and an overpowered Rey, would be addressed in the sequel.  Well, they weren't.  Which now means that people not only dislike this movie in droves, but they also are going to start looking at TFA a little less favorably for those flaws.  Though, on a competency level, it's still far superior to this one.

Also, if you want to just look at opening weekends, TFA did $529M ($248M US and $281M Others), while TLJ did $450M WW ($220M US and $230M Others.)  That's down by ~$80M.  You could say part of that is the letdown of TFA, though a lot of it is because TFA was helped by it being the first SW in a long time.  No, this film has gotten a big boost from being a SW movie, BUT it will still fail to meet expectations because of its own merits, or lack thereof.  This weekend it could see one of the largest drops in movie history.  It's already on its way with a WOW Fri drop of 76%.  That's 17 percentile points more than TFA.  If the same gap applies to its Sat and Sun drops, then its looking at a drop of ~52%+.  That's worse than the 49% and 50% drops JW and Avnegers saw, respectively, and quite a bit down from the 40% TFA saw.  Of course, 52% is optimistic, and I think its drop is going to be larger than that.  Possibly ~55%-60%.