By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

RolStoppable said:
VGPolyglot said:

Well, another reason why there are so many comments is because the Switch is in 3rd place, behind the PS4 and XB1.

That would come from people who can't connect the dots or who would rather engage in expressing concerns about the Switch's future. Is that what has happened?

I was one of those people who thought the Switch would sell alot more. If it had it could have been the number one selling console this year.  Now PS4 is way ahead... like nearly a million.   So part of it is incorrect projections.  The second part is just people being upset.  At who?  It differs.  It is also a lesson about putting your eggs into one basket.  In this case it was comments from Adobe which I warned everyone doesn't account for retail bigger sites like Amazon and GameStop.



Around the Network
quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

I saw as much earlier this week when I read the first page of the thread. But apparently the estimate for Switch was debunked early and the actual number was hinted at being around 900k.

where was it stated switch was 900K? you're making things up now.

Rol said it was hinted to be around that, not that it was actually stated to be the case.



I mean, if it did 900k then PS4 did 1.8 million.

That's what people in this thread aren't realizing. The 2:1 ratio sold was confirmed. So Switch being higher just means that the PS4 and X1 puts more distance in front of it.



Intrinsic said:
OfficerRaichu15 said:
When your console sells 900k in November with no deals like the other two and your now considered as losing interest. Then you look at online retailers and the console is in the top 10 everywhere..

 

Acevil said:

What I find amusing, is they would use ZhugeEx information to downplay one, when he highlights all three did amazing well.

Are we all going t just pretend that the switch isn't only like 6 months old an "competing" with 4 year old consoles? 

Or that its being compared to a first holiday of other consoles that came over a year after they had released and that while one of those consoles saw discounts they were still both more expensive than the $300 asking price of the switch.

I am not saying the thing is failing or going to fail. I am saying that  all things considered I saw no reason why it wouldn't have sold more even at the current pricing. Which is why I predicted it comes second in november with over 1300K sales.

I mean, two of the biggest IPs on any nintnedo platform have already made a showing on the hardware.... and say next year nintendo drops the price to what? $250 and include a game? (which is something i don't see nintendo doing to be honest) are people here really suggesting that going from $299 to $249 is all the push that is needed?

Why does it matter that they are 4 years old? This is PS4 best year yet and most consoles dont peak in their first year anyway. PS3/360 had their best years in 2011 which was 5/6 years after launch.

We cant just say, "oh PS4 was $400 in 2014 so Switch should be doing better at $300". Otherwise we have to look at it the other way as well, Switch at $300 did just about the same as $170 3DS in 2011. All three are different types of devices with different prices and all sold roughly the same in their post-launch Nov and it was a good result for all 3.

I thought it would push 1 million as well but after doing some research i found out that XBO in 2014 was the only time in history that a console did over 1 million in its post-launch November. PS2 didnt, Wii didnt, PS4 didnt so after looking into it, it was naive to believe Switch would.

Sure it has Mario & Zelda but Nintendo is alot more than just those two franchises. Pokemon, Smash bros, Animal Crossing have yet to release and are all capable of doing over 10 million so Nintendo still has some big console movers up its sleeve.

And yes a $250 Mario Kart bundle next holiday seems pretty likely and will move alot of hardware.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Mr.GameCrazy said:
quickrick said:

where was it stated switch was 900K? you're making things up now.

Rol said it was hinted to be around that, not that it was actually stated to be the case.

i'm regular reader of sales thread in resetera and saw no such hint.



Around the Network
quickrick said:
Mr.GameCrazy said:

Rol said it was hinted to be around that, not that it was actually stated to be the case.

i'm regular reader of sales thread in resetera and saw no such hint.

I read that another user from resetera said that the  npd guy said the numbers were off and that the Switch numbers would be significantly higher. People came to the conclusion that the Switch numbers are about 100k to 150k out. I believe it will be close to the 900k figure. 



SWORDF1SH said:
quickrick said:

i'm regular reader of sales thread in resetera and saw no such hint.

I read that another user from resetera said that the  npd guy said the numbers were off and that the Switch numbers would be significantly higher. People came to the conclusion that the Switch numbers are about 100k to 150k out. I believe it will be close to the 900k figure. 

unless matt or zhugeex said that. it doesn't mean anything.



zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

 

Are we all going t just pretend that the switch isn't only like 6 months old an "competing" with 4 year old consoles? 

Or that its being compared to a first holiday of other consoles that came over a year after they had released and that while one of those consoles saw discounts they were still both more expensive than the $300 asking price of the switch.

I am not saying the thing is failing or going to fail. I am saying that  all things considered I saw no reason why it wouldn't have sold more even at the current pricing. Which is why I predicted it comes second in november with over 1300K sales.

I mean, two of the biggest IPs on any nintnedo platform have already made a showing on the hardware.... and say next year nintendo drops the price to what? $250 and include a game? (which is something i don't see nintendo doing to be honest) are people here really suggesting that going from $299 to $249 is all the push that is needed?

Why does it matter that they are 4 years old? This is PS4 best year yet and most consoles dont peak in their first year anyway. PS3/360 had their best years in 2011 which was 5/6 years after launch.

We cant just say, "oh PS4 was $400 in 2014 so Switch should be doing better at $300". Otherwise we have to look at it the other way as well, Switch at $300 did just about the same as $170 3DS in 2011. All three are different types of devices with different prices and all sold roughly the same in their post-launch Nov and it was a good result for all 3.

I thought it would push 1 million as well but after doing some research i found out that XBO in 2014 was the only time in history that a console did over 1 million in its post-launch November. PS2 didnt, Wii didnt, PS4 didnt so after looking into it, it was naive to believe Switch would.

Sure it has Mario & Zelda but Nintendo is alot more than just those two franchises. Pokemon, Smash bros, Animal Crossing have yet to release and are all capable of doing over 10 million so Nintendo still has some big console movers up its sleeve.

And yes a $250 Mario Kart bundle next holiday seems pretty likely and will move alot of hardware.

ps2, and wii were surely hampered by stock, and it just doesn't have mario and zelda, it has mario kart, and splatoon as well. as for 2014 ps4 big games, they were all on xbox as well, so it's not like nintendo where they are all exclusive.



Acevil said:

To the first line, Isn't the 3rd or 4th year the prime years for majority of consoles. The fact it is actually able to compete is some what impressive, this was the same DOA console that actually seemed to get things right and hitting its stride, and now people are saying 800,000 in November is bad?

To the second line, Can also go the other way, since it is hybrid, the fact it actually beating 3DS/Vita at higher price point shows that it is indeed healthy.

It is all about value in the end, if consumers perceive value. For example: I thought PS4 at 399.99 has/had more value than 299.99 Switch, I bought both at launch. I think the Switch is tad bit overpriced, while I had no issue 399.99 PS4 pricing at the time. Also note Xbox One had games bundled in to also sweeten the pot with the price tag of 329.99, only reason it beat PS4 at 399.99 in my eyes. 

The thing is, these consoles are priced competitively to their value. We live in age where $1,000 Phone can easily beat $500 Phones, because of perceived value, and we still compare there market shares both unit and revenue. 

Third Line, I thought it might do more as well (My prediction was 1 million), however I do not remotely consider 800,000 bad numbers or failing. The issue is a lot of people in this thread are treating like switch is just going to disappear it this stage. One person even said it would do less than the gamecube (posted in another thread, but also posted in here similar lines). 

Fourth line, while I do not know if can keep up full momentum of being or beating 14 million in FY 2018-2019. I think it should still have healthy 10-12 million, Yes I do expect a price cut, and I do expect more solid games. The biggest title for it has yet to come out, which is Pokemon.  Also just going for $299.99 to $249.99 alone will not cut it, it will need solid library as well, which I believe it will have. 

well spoken. Gotta agree with you.



RolStoppable said:
Why is this thread is so big before actual numbers have arrived? I am not going to skim through the thread, I'll simply assume that many people aren't able to connect the dots.

Switch shipments for the holiday quarter are going to be ~6m of which ~2.5m go to the Americas, ~1.7m to Japan and ~1.8m to Others. The USA aren't the only country of America, so slash off 10% of the 2.5m and you are left with ~2.2m. 400k October, 900k November and 900k December. Those are roughly the sales that could be expected in the USA, +/- 100k in every month.

Your post suggests that stock is what was holding back the Switch this Nov.  That is not the case.  Stores had them.  I would be surprised if Nintendo didn't make sure to get at least 1M into the US for Black Friday month.  It was also heavily advertised in BF ads.

I'm not saying that the Switch did shitty or anything.  Far from it.  Just that the stock excuse is now over since Nintendo ramped up production.