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Forums - Sales - NPD Analyst Expects Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November

 

NPD, Who wins?

Switch! 43 31.62%
 
Xbox! 20 14.71%
 
Playstation! 66 48.53%
 
Ouya! 7 5.15%
 
Total:136
VideoGameAccountant said:
CosmicSex said:
I see folks arguing about the Switch and Black Friday numbers. Consider the following:

The Xbox One S was the high seller on Black Friday at the biggest online retailers hands down.
The PS4 was the highest brick and mortar store hands down easily winning GameStop
I am not sure how Adobe's numbers work, but they fail at Amazon and they don't account for retail.
Ask yourself what sells more on Black Friday: Online or Retail?
This in no way discounts the Switch or its ability to win which should be self evident by now, I am merely challenging you guys to be more analytical.

In terms of Online vs Retail, here is some information for 2016.

https://www.practicalecommerce.com/Sales-Report-2016-Thanksgiving-Day-Black-Friday-Cyber-Monday

Data from the National Retail Federation shows that many consumers no longer find it necessary or appealing to shop in physical stores. The trade group’s consumer survey found that 108.5 million people shopped Black Friday deals online while 99 million went to stores.

Electronics and appliances showed the greatest growth over 2015, growing 26.5 percent year-over-year, both online and in store.

So we can surmise that online shopping is getting close to retail (with about 50 percent in 2016). So the Adobe information would still be very relevant.  

I think it's a matter of reliability, and Adobe seems to be bizarrely inaccurate.



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VideoGameAccountant said:
CosmicSex said:
I see folks arguing about the Switch and Black Friday numbers. Consider the following:

The Xbox One S was the high seller on Black Friday at the biggest online retailers hands down.
The PS4 was the highest brick and mortar store hands down easily winning GameStop
I am not sure how Adobe's numbers work, but they fail at Amazon and they don't account for retail.
Ask yourself what sells more on Black Friday: Online or Retail?
This in no way discounts the Switch or its ability to win which should be self evident by now, I am merely challenging you guys to be more analytical.

In terms of Online vs Retail, here is some information for 2016.

https://www.practicalecommerce.com/Sales-Report-2016-Thanksgiving-Day-Black-Friday-Cyber-Monday

Data from the National Retail Federation shows that many consumers no longer find it necessary or appealing to shop in physical stores. The trade group’s consumer survey found that 108.5 million people shopped Black Friday deals online while 99 million went to stores.

Electronics and appliances showed the greatest growth over 2015, growing 26.5 percent year-over-year, both online and in store.

So we can surmise that online shopping is getting close to retail (with about 50 percent in 2016). So the Adobe information would still be very relevant.  

That data is irrelevent for several reasons.

First we know that Adobe conducted a survey of something like 4500 online retailers but we don't know the distribution of sales for each retailer in terms of actual numbers; only rations split into a top five list.  Did major online retailers participate in this collection?  If you know the answer to this, we could at least try to correlate those ratios (I mean top five). check this out: https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017-11-20/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_3?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Second, we saw retailer and online sellouts of consoles on Black Friday.  the simple question is what is the volume of stock major retailers have asopposed to online stores like Amazon. 

All I am really trying to say is that the data that Adobe provides doesn't give a whole picture and it doesn't at the VERY least tell os dollars spent at the two types of retailers.  Have you noticed that the NPD now waits for digital sale information before telling us who sold the most?  Thats because online/digital has become  a huge deal.  You are right to assert the findings from PracticaleCommerece but remember we are talking about consoles. They are still sold mostly at brick and mortar retailers on Black Friday.  Thats why they are always featured.



thismeintiel said:
TruckOSaurus said:

 

Since everyone will have something to brag about I'm hoping we'll get it all too.

Well, unless they win, I don't think either company will says anything.  If Sony doesn't win, they will leave it at that they had their best BF ever.  Nintendo may talk about how well Mario did, but I doubt they will give HW numbers if they don't win.  And if MS doesn't win, they MAY give X numbers if it was better than the Pro, but I highly doubt they will give their overall numbers.

Agreed. I'm going to keep holding on to hope though.

Nintendo could also pull out the "hardware" term and bundle the SNES Classic, 3ds and switch in one figure if the switch alone came 2nd or 3rd. I can't recall a time they have done that but we've had articles here that are headed with something similar like "2 third of all consoles sold were Nintendo".



I think the Xbox one X might actually be helping the Xbox S sales too. Plus the X box one X is selling very well.



ironmanDX said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, unless they win, I don't think either company will says anything.  If Sony doesn't win, they will leave it at that they had their best BF ever.  Nintendo may talk about how well Mario did, but I doubt they will give HW numbers if they don't win.  And if MS doesn't win, they MAY give X numbers if it was better than the Pro, but I highly doubt they will give their overall numbers.

Agreed. I'm going to keep holding on to hope though.

Nintendo could also pull out the "hardware" term and bundle the SNES Classic, 3ds and switch in one figure if the switch alone came 2nd or 3rd. I can't recall a time they have done that but we've had articles here that are headed with something similar like "2 third of all consoles sold were Nintendo".

And even if Switch doesn't win Nintendo can say they had a fantastic first BF.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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ironmanDX said:

Agreed. I'm going to keep holding on to hope though.

Nintendo could also pull out the "hardware" term and bundle the SNES Classic, 3ds and switch in one figure if the switch alone came 2nd or 3rd. I can't recall a time they have done that but we've had articles here that are headed with something similar like "2 third of all consoles sold were Nintendo".

It is likely. But at least the one who wins NPD will surely brag about it so we will know which one won the month. The other 2 will just try to hide this fact below a tick layer of PD.



DonFerrari said:
ironmanDX said:

Agreed. I'm going to keep holding on to hope though.

Nintendo could also pull out the "hardware" term and bundle the SNES Classic, 3ds and switch in one figure if the switch alone came 2nd or 3rd. I can't recall a time they have done that but we've had articles here that are headed with something similar like "2 third of all consoles sold were Nintendo".

And even if Switch doesn't win Nintendo can say they had a fantastic first BF.

Or highest revenue? I think everyone had a fantastic black Friday.



ironmanDX said:
DonFerrari said:

And even if Switch doesn't win Nintendo can say they had a fantastic first BF.

Or highest revenue? I think everyone had a fantastic black Friday.

Not Sega or Atari. Sadly, they sold 0 units of Dreamcasts or Jaguars. 



thismeintiel said:
ironmanDX said:

Or highest revenue? I think everyone had a fantastic black Friday.

Not Sega or Atari. Sadly, they sold 0 units of Dreamcasts or Jaguars. 

I wouldn't be so sure!

https://ebgames.com.au/loot-232548-Atari-Flashback-8-Classic-Game-Console-Loot



My guess:
Switch>ps4>xbox s >xbox x>ps4 pro.
But ps4+pro>switch.