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Forums - Sales - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
Intrinsic on 15 November 2017
zorg1000 said:

One major factor to consider though is that Switch launched in March compared to November, having a holiday season is a huge advantage for PS4. Switch will pass PS4 numbers in the next 3 months but will then lose the lead again once PS4 2nd holiday comes into play, they will likely teeter totter like this for awhile.

 

I never said anything about PS4 sales plummeting or its peak so i have no idea why you brought that up.

yup... you are right



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Intrinsic on 15 November 2017
quickrick said:

OMG the stupid holiday excuse ps4 was sold within 24 hours in north america, the holiday didnt help it, because it had no stock. just like the wii, just like the 360. people forget that these consoles with out the holidays would sell 1.5 million in 2 months just based on launch demand.  example if super nes classic launched during the holidays, it would have made 0 difference, because it sold out right away.

And thats the thing about all this that irritates me. But I see people have it stuck in their heads.

In its first 4 months on the market the NS sold/shipped (conflicting info) 4.7M consoles. And through that period it was supply constrained. So even if it released in November it simply wouldn't have been able to make enough consoles to meet demand. Launch consoles have a way of selling out.

In the first 2 and a half months on the market the PS4 sold 4.1/4.3M (can't remember). And it too was supply constrained. Hell, in its first two weks it sold 2.1M consoles. Then absolutely nothing for the week after that. No stock.

So i really don't get the whole holiday argument. Its not like there is an infinite amount of stock available.

Oh and then there is this.... as of October Nintendo has plans to ramp up production of the switch to 2M per month. Lets say they even really push it and can manage 2.5M/month for November and December. Will that be enough to meet demand? Absolutely not. They will sell out in minutes. To put things into pespective over the same  period last year the PS4 sold around 8M consoles. And this year its tracking better than last year.



Intrinsic on 15 November 2017
zorg1000 said:

It absolutely makes a difference.

 

A user on this site, Shadow1980, who is known for his charts/graphs has data that shows every single console that launched in Nov had similar sales in Dec while every console launched outside of the holidays had a sharp drop in the 2nd month.

 

Youre right that PS4 1st month sales would have likely stayed the same but its 2nd month sales would likley have been very different if it launched outside of the holidays because people are far more likely to spend hundreds of dollars on gaming in Dec compared to April.

As much sense as all that makes... that would only be rlevant if in the second month of the NS being available you could see them everywhere.

You couldn't... they were still out of stock. Which means that nintendo was selling as much as they were making. 

over 4 months on and the stock situation is still not the best in the world. 

What all this proves is that even if they released in november last year, or november this year, they would have sold the exact same amount of consoles because they were stock restricted.

Unless of course the console was ready for launch in june and the just manufactured and stockpiled consoles for a november launch.



quickrick on 15 November 2017
peachbuggy said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

Ok, so launches aligned the PS4 is almost 2 million ahead? 

Well then...i mean, the PS4 has not even peaked yet LOL

It is dumb to think that the PS4 sales will suddenly plummet, specially considering what comes next year for the PS4, and the year after that.

Basically the proof is right here before our eyes, and im seeing a lot of factual evidence and a lot of wishful thinking. 

Choose your side.

This will likely be the PS4 peak year so all downhill from here, although i do realise it will be a slow fall in sales. Ps consoles have incredible lastability. The 1st year comparison has PS4 with a holiday behind it. Switch 1st holiday is coming up soon so it wouldn't surprise me if the Switch actually takes the lead, launches aligned. It will be closer than you think.

yea with spider man, GOW, days gone and red dead redemption ps4 will have it's best year next year.

 

tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:

It's no different then people thinking vita couldn't beat who u or ps4 wouldn't beat who u in Japan.  People think with their hearts not their heads .

Though it has some truth to it, ps4 was slow at first amd wiiu pushed with a holiday to keep it ahead. Anyone tht knows sales can see switch will be up next year. Its basic knowledge with all the info we have.

 

Basically anyone that thinks switch will be down next year or whatever other excuse come up with is showing clear biased toward nintendo.

 

yea because people are suppose to believe in a system that hasn't even had a full year on the market, or there biased.



quickrick on 15 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

It absolutely makes a difference.

 

A user on this site, Shadow1980, who is known for his charts/graphs has data that shows every single console that launched in Nov had similar sales in Dec while every console launched outside of the holidays had a sharp drop in the 2nd month.

 

Youre right that PS4 1st month sales would have likely stayed the same but its 2nd month sales would likley have been very different if it launched outside of the holidays because people are far more likely to spend hundreds of dollars on gaming in Dec compared to April.

As much sense as all that makes... that would only be rlevant if in the second month of the NS being available you could see them everywhere.

You couldn't... they were still out of stock. Which means that nintendo was selling as much as they were making. 

over 4 months on and the stock situation is still not the best in the world. 

What all this proves is that even if they released in november last year, or november this year, they would have sold the exact same amount of consoles because they were stock restricted.

Unless of course the console was ready for launch in june and the just manufactured and stockpiled consoles for a november launch.

exactly even ps4 which had way more hype, then NS, sony only managed 2 million for the holiday launch. If nintendo had enough stock they could have did 1.6 easy there first 2 months of launch.



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tbone51 on 15 November 2017
Kerotan said:
tbone51 said:

Though it has some truth to it, ps4 was slow at first amd wiiu pushed with a holiday to keep it ahead. Anyone tht knows sales can see switch will be up next year. Its basic knowledge with all the info we have.

 

Basically anyone that thinks switch will be down next year or whatever other excuse come up with is showing clear biased toward nintendo.

 

So basically the exact same as even people laughed at me for saying ps4 would pass Wii u the next year. It was so obvious but they let their bias make the judgement.  

 

Same as when people said Xbox one could still beat ps4 . 

I notice you keep using that, what a couple of people said that and you hold it like it was something thats much bigger... Anyways ps4 surpassing wiiu at that time (that year) could have been argued as ps4 was showing a slow start in its first year. Though you were correct and the people you refer to that was laughing at you were wrong, it wasnt like ps4 surpassing wiiu that year was 100% guarateed. Alot of things happen that many didnt kno at the time.

 

With this (switch) it isnt even the same. The statistics show that switch will be up YoY unless nintendo completely fucks it up. The way some people here trying to push a narrative is laughable as the only thing they are really saying is wishful thinking.



tbone51 on 16 November 2017
quickrick said:
peachbuggy said:

This will likely be the PS4 peak year so all downhill from here, although i do realise it will be a slow fall in sales. Ps consoles have incredible lastability. The 1st year comparison has PS4 with a holiday behind it. Switch 1st holiday is coming up soon so it wouldn't surprise me if the Switch actually takes the lead, launches aligned. It will be closer than you think.

yea with spider man, GOW, days gone and red dead redemption ps4 will have it's best year next year.

 

tbone51 said:

Though it has some truth to it, ps4 was slow at first amd wiiu pushed with a holiday to keep it ahead. Anyone tht knows sales can see switch will be up next year. Its basic knowledge with all the info we have.

 

Basically anyone that thinks switch will be down next year or whatever other excuse come up with is showing clear biased toward nintendo.

 

yea because people are suppose to believe in a system that hasn't even had a full year on the market, or there biased.

When you think nintendos most popular product (Hardware) has had the best launch year of any nintendo system including japan hasnt even caught up in demand yet and hasnt even gotten a brand new Mario kart, 2d mario, super smash, animal crossing, and pokemon is going to be front loaded (and down YoY in its 2nd year) your biased. Pretty simple when you think about it.

 

You keep goin on for pages, you are the type of person that will forever move goalpost, but it is expected. Good luck with it all!



Kerotan on 16 November 2017
tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:

So basically the exact same as even people laughed at me for saying ps4 would pass Wii u the next year. It was so obvious but they let their bias make the judgement.  

 

Same as when people said Xbox one could still beat ps4 . 

I notice you keep using that, what a couple of people said that and you hold it like it was something thats much bigger... Anyways ps4 surpassing wiiu at that time (that year) could have been argued as ps4 was showing a slow start in its first year. Though you were correct and the people you refer to that was laughing at you were wrong, it wasnt like ps4 surpassing wiiu that year was 100% guarateed. Alot of things happen that many didnt kno at the time.

 

With this (switch) it isnt even the same. The statistics show that switch will be up YoY unless nintendo completely fucks it up. The way some people here trying to push a narrative is laughable as the only thing they are really saying is wishful thinking.

It wasn't guaranteed but most said It was impossibly.  They even said they wouldbookmark my post and laugh at me when it doesn't come through. Considering they said zero chance it proves my point .



Miyamotoo on 16 November 2017
quickrick said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
This thread will be gold only one year from now, lol.

Yea remember the wiiu, now that was comedy gold, see the same thing happening here, now saying the switch will bomb like wiiu, but it wont touch ps4, and japan sales will slow down fast, same with US.

You dont make any sense, this is actually totally opposite to Wii U, for Wii U people were saying that it wouldnt flop and it did flop, for Switch people were saying it want sell good and actual its selling great. Of Course that Switch can't bomb with this sales, Switch will probably one best selling Nintendo console and has chance to outsell even Wii.

 

quickrick said: 
peachbuggy said: 

Apart from personal bias, what makes you think it will slow down in any of these territories? Demand has only recently even been met in the U.S. and still not even been met in Japan. I actually voted for the PS4 to win, due to longevity. However whilst i still think that, i don't think it's a lock that the PS4 will even beat Switch WW this year. If Amazon is anything to go by, Switch wins in U.S. massively in both October and November, won't lose Europe by enough to offset that and probably wins December too. That would be enough to catch the 1.9m or whatever the gap is this year. Holiday time is when the sales race is "won" or "lost" in all reality.

I  believe switch will be  a very front loaded product, because of the mobile market. this year is just launched so take into account the wiiu sold the best in it's first year, so combine 3ds and wiiu in it's first year, and you have amazing numbers. then you have nintedo releasing 4 of there biggest franchises in the first year 2 of them the highest rated games of all time, and the third a 94, and then you splatoon which is phenomena. just look at super nes clasiic the thing could probably sell 7 million pretty fast but eventually sells will plummet. 

 

As for the holidays IDC what amazon says, ps4 will win december, and xbone and the x will take november easily, quote me on this.

So many things wrong. Wii U was overshiped in its first year, thats why we even had negative shipments in some territories in some countries, 3DS needed huge price cut in order to start selling, neihter Wii U (it actualy had stock probles for around 2 weeks) and 3DS didnt had any stock problems. And than you have Switch that selling out of gate great, and until recently had huge stock problems and still have them in Japan. You dont have reason to believe that Switch sales will plummet, Nintendo will easily continue Switch sales momentum with big and strong games whitiotu and software drouthgs unlikly 3DS and espacily Wii U.

We will see about holiday season, this will be Switches first holiday season and Nintendo consoles/handheld always have biggest speak in sales during holiday season compared to competition.

 

quickrick said: 
zorg1000 said: 

A couple things you arent taking into account.

3DS had a massive price cut 5 months after launch, this caused sales to skyrocket in late summer and through the holidays. The price cut didnt really increase the appeal of the system, rather it just made people get one sooner than they had intended.

Wii U really didnt peak in the first year, it was massively overshipped in the launch window which really skews things and caused Nintendo to basically ship next to nothing during the next few quarters in order to get rid of unsold stock.

These scenarios are clearly not the same situation Switch is in so they really cant be compared. Switch didnt need a masive price cut to get people buying one and has suffered supply constraints rather than being massively overshipped.

Switch is selling well simply by being an appealing device with great marketing and a kickass software library.

your not taking into account that this is nintendo next console and handheld, with there best first year launch line up ever. of course its gonna start strong. by next next year if it keeps beating ps4 in npd, then ill be convinced, hell i wanna see how it does  for this for the holidays first. i just believe it too early to tell, especially with out strong the mobile market is.

3DS will sell at end around 75-80m despite strong mobile market, and Switch has much stronger appealing on market (its home console and handled in same time), its much more interesting hardware in any case, and it will have bigger number of system seller games (Switch will have handheld and home console IPs). So Switch will probably sell more than 3DS at end.

Talking about mobile market, actually Switch can't attract part of mobile players, because like hybrid its bridge between mobile gaming and home console gaming.

quickrick said: 
zorg1000 said: 

I feel like you dont pay any attention.

Ill try taking you through this step by step.

 

PS4 is at 8.7m & Switch at 7.0m launches aligned.

 

They released at different times of the year so at this point in time PS4 had a holiday season already while Switch does not.

Once Switch's first holiday sales are added then it will likely be ahead of PS4.

Once PS4 2nd holiday numbers are added than it will retake the lead over Switch.


Depending on how Switch sells in the next year or two, this flip flopping could continue.

 

Does that make sense to you now?

OMG the stupid holiday excuse ps4 was sold within 24 hours in north america, the holiday didnt help it, because it had no stock. just like the wii, just like the 360. people forget that these consoles with out the holidays would sell 1.5 million in 2 months just based on launch demand.  example if super nes classic launched during the holidays, it would have made 0 difference, because it sold out right away.

Holiday season it's not excuse it's a fact, in those two months consoles usually sell more than in two quarters. PS4 launched right before Holiday season, so of course that lotsa people used their Holiday season money to purchase PS4. Point is that Switch was launched in Holiday season, Nintendo wouldn't prepared only 2m consoles for launch like they prepared it for Switch launch in March, they would prepared it at least around 4m, and you cant bet that PS4 wouldnt have same sales in March like they had in November and December.

 

quickrick said: 
peachbuggy said: 

You really need to get your facts right, or at least post credible stuff. I've no idea where you pulled that NPD list from. Your ass probably.Even if it had a semblance of credibility, it is counting MULTIPLATS! Therefore, xbOne/PS4 sales vs Switch and 3ds single platform games! Lmao your proof is actually laughable!

lol nice try.

https://venturebeat.com/2017/01/19/2016-npd-call-of-duty-no-1-battlefield-no-2-on-2016s-list-of-best-selling-games/

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2016/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_cal_ye

You clearly missing point, NPD list includes combined sales from all platform versions of same game, so that means that in sales of Call Of Duty are included sales of PS4 version of game, XB1 version of game and PC version of game. While on Amazon you have list of best selling games for single platform, for instance just sales of PS4 version of CoD game, not combined sales for PS4, XB1 and PC version of game.



Miyamotoo on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
quickrick said:

OMG the stupid holiday excuse ps4 was sold within 24 hours in north america, the holiday didnt help it, because it had no stock. just like the wii, just like the 360. people forget that these consoles with out the holidays would sell 1.5 million in 2 months just based on launch demand.  example if super nes classic launched during the holidays, it would have made 0 difference, because it sold out right away.

And thats the thing about all this that irritates me. But I see people have it stuck in their heads.

In its first 4 months on the market the NS sold/shipped (conflicting info) 4.7M consoles. And through that period it was supply constrained. So even if it released in November it simply wouldn't have been able to make enough consoles to meet demand. Launch consoles have a way of selling out.

In the first 2 and a half months on the market the PS4 sold 4.1/4.3M (can't remember). And it too was supply constrained. Hell, in its first two weks it sold 2.1M consoles. Then absolutely nothing for the week after that. No stock.

So i really don't get the whole holiday argument. Its not like there is an infinite amount of stock available.

Oh and then there is this.... as of October Nintendo has plans to ramp up production of the switch to 2M per month. Lets say they even really push it and can manage 2.5M/month for November and December. Will that be enough to meet demand? Absolutely not. They will sell out in minutes. To put things into pespective over the same  period last year the PS4 sold around 8M consoles. And this year its tracking better than last year.

You missing key point, when console makers launching console outside Holiday season they are preparing less consoles for launch than they would if launch is during Holiday season, from obvious reasons of course. Nintendo prepared only 2m Switch consoles for launch in March they quickly outsold everything and they even shipped buy planes 700k more but that again wasn't enough, if they were launching console in Holiday season they would prepare at least around 4m because they know during Holiday season consoles are selling much better in any case and regardless launch. I mean there is reason why Nintendo said they planning to ship 7m Switch consoles during this quarter.

From that reason, and point that most of time during year Switch was completely sold out and still is in Japan, it's pointless to compare PS4 first year and Switch first year, but comparing second hole FY year on market (from 1. April 2014. to 31. March of 2015. in case of PS4 and from 1. April 2018. to 31. March 2019. in case of Switch, or just from January to December) would be much more accurate.

But in any case, Switch sales are great with point that most of time had/has huge stock problems.