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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. November bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

ThisGuyFooks said:
hudsoniscool said:
I've said a few times I expect PS4 to win November npd but that Sony pr has me second guessing myself. Sounds like fluff a company puts out when they expect to have bad news come out. Not that loosing npd is a big deal anyway.

How is it Fluff to sell the most units on a single day in the history of Playstation consoles?

That is just an objective mathematical fact.

Don't get me wrong that's great for them. I just mean they said the same thing last year "best Black Friday ever". Everyone was going nuts that combined with pro launch I saw people predicting 2 million or more for November 2016 npd. Turns out it only did 1.1 million which was down from 1.5+ million for November 2015.

 

  I just notice being in a lot stocks that when a company has a bad piece of news or info dropping they make sure to throw out a bunch of good news to go with it. Obviously winning worldwide is much more important but loosing a holiday month in a consoles biggest market isn't good either.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

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quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

In none of your incoherent rambling did you say anything that came close to being relevant to what i said, i award you no points and may god have mercy on your soul.

umm he asked if ps4 was selling well before the price drop, based on data we have, it was all year. just because we had one slow month in October 200-230k range, doesn't mean it will carry in November

If you were answering his question than why did you quote me?

The things i said were valid, it didnt do anything special last month and the BF deal had been known all month so its very possible that its baseline sales dropped early in the month in anticipation of the price drop. Im not saying they did, just that its possible.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

hudsoniscool said:

Don't get me wrong that's great for them. I just mean they said the same thing last year "best Black Friday ever". Everyone was going nuts that combined with pro launch I saw people predicting 2 million or more for November 2016 npd. Turns out it only did 1.1 million which was down from 1.5+ million for November 2015.

 

  I just notice being in a lot stocks that when a company has a bad piece of news or info dropping they make sure to throw out a bunch of good news to go with it. Obviously winning worldwide is much more important but loosing a holiday month in a consoles biggest market isn't good either.

if they had the same PR last year and won, what makes you so confident they have lost with practically the same PR this year? I also don't understand the point about Sony not winning one month in one country being a big deal. They aren't MS, this isn't the be all and end all.

And I take it that since PS4 'only' sold 1.1m last year with Pro release, Xbox One should be comfortably above it this year, and if it's not, it will be disappointing too, right? Especially as PS4 sales didn't decline so heavily leading up to the Pro release like Xbox One sales did before the X



hudsoniscool said:
Aura7541 said:

The UK is the most similar market to the US and according to Bruno's numbers, it's possible that the PS4 outsold the XB1 at almost a 2 to 1 ratio.

U.K. Black Friday 2016 and 2017 almost identical for Xbox/PS4 ratios.

in 2016 November npd PS4 beat Xbox by 100k despite the pro launch and that same great U.K. Black Friday ratio. So I don't think PS4 having a better Black Friday than Xbox in the U.K. Is directly related to PS4 winning npd. If we are going to correlate the day between both countries than we should also correlate the X's launch. Xbox sold 120k consoles that week, PS4 and switch did like 65k combined. In fact Xbox one x launch week was xb1's biggest week ever in the U.K. Since it's launch in 2013. Does that also translate to the US?

 

Also should  take into account the 2 insidersand npd analyst all have the month as a toss-up. The npd analyst said x should blow past 600k in US This year. That tells me he expects at least 400k X's sold in November npd, possibly 500k or more. 

Last year's UK BF ratio was around 1.5 to 1. This year's BF in the UK may have an even larger ratio.

I agree, the XB1X had a really good launch. However, does that translate into post-launch success? If we look at the XB1's numbers last UK BF and this UK BF, the numbers suggest the answer to be no. Last year, it sold 93K while this year it sold <100K. The lack of YOY increase with the possibility of the XB1 even being down YOY despite the XB1X fresh off the table isn't something to be ignored.

And there are a lot of other factors for us to account for such as the PS4 quickly blazing past the XB1X on Amazon's 2017 rankings before Thanksgiving even began, the $349 Pro deal, GameStop's inclusion of a $50 gift card with the $199 PS4, and the marketshare each retailer takes up in the video game market. InfoScout had the PS4 being the best selling product at Target in terms of revenue even though the XB1S had the significantly better deal at that retailer ($189 + $25 gift card vs $199). Last BF, the XB1 was the best selling product in terms of revenue at Target.



Aura7541 said:
hudsoniscool said:

U.K. Black Friday 2016 and 2017 almost identical for Xbox/PS4 ratios.

in 2016 November npd PS4 beat Xbox by 100k despite the pro launch and that same great U.K. Black Friday ratio. So I don't think PS4 having a better Black Friday than Xbox in the U.K. Is directly related to PS4 winning npd. If we are going to correlate the day between both countries than we should also correlate the X's launch. Xbox sold 120k consoles that week, PS4 and switch did like 65k combined. In fact Xbox one x launch week was xb1's biggest week ever in the U.K. Since it's launch in 2013. Does that also translate to the US?

 

Also should  take into account the 2 insidersand npd analyst all have the month as a toss-up. The npd analyst said x should blow past 600k in US This year. That tells me he expects at least 400k X's sold in November npd, possibly 500k or more. 

Last year's UK BF ratio was around 1.5 to 1. This year's BF in the UK may have an even larger ratio.

I agree, the XB1X had a really good launch. However, does that translate into post-launch success? If we look at the XB1's numbers last UK BF and this UK BF, the numbers suggest the answer to be no. Last year, it sold 93K while this year it sold <100K. The lack of YOY increase with the possibility of the XB1 even being down YOY despite the XB1X fresh off the table isn't something to be ignored.

And there are a lot of other factors for us to account for such as the PS4 quickly blazing past the XB1X on Amazon's 2017 rankings before Thanksgiving even began, the $349 Pro deal, GameStop's inclusion of a $50 gift card with the $199 PS4, and the marketshare each retailer takes up in the video game market. InfoScout had the PS4 being the best selling product at Target in terms of revenue even though the XB1S had the significantly better deal at that retailer ($189 + $25 gift card vs $199). Last BF, the XB1 was the best selling product in terms of revenue at Target.

Aura, you might have to moderate yourself: I'm pretty sure that the community guidelines say that you can't use that many facts in a single post.

If it was allowed, I'm pretty sure it would regularly happen on VGC.



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Insidb said:
Aura7541 said:

Last year's UK BF ratio was around 1.5 to 1. This year's BF in the UK may have an even larger ratio.

I agree, the XB1X had a really good launch. However, does that translate into post-launch success? If we look at the XB1's numbers last UK BF and this UK BF, the numbers suggest the answer to be no. Last year, it sold 93K while this year it sold <100K. The lack of YOY increase with the possibility of the XB1 even being down YOY despite the XB1X fresh off the table isn't something to be ignored.

And there are a lot of other factors for us to account for such as the PS4 quickly blazing past the XB1X on Amazon's 2017 rankings before Thanksgiving even began, the $349 Pro deal, GameStop's inclusion of a $50 gift card with the $199 PS4, and the marketshare each retailer takes up in the video game market. InfoScout had the PS4 being the best selling product at Target in terms of revenue even though the XB1S had the significantly better deal at that retailer ($189 + $25 gift card vs $199). Last BF, the XB1 was the best selling product in terms of revenue at Target.

Aura, you might have to moderate yourself: I'm pretty sure that the community guidelines say that you can't use that many facts in a single post.

If it was allowed, I'm pretty sure it would regularly happen on VGC.

You, sir, just won the thread.  Wrap her up, boys, we're outta here.



celador said:
hudsoniscool said:

Don't get me wrong that's great for them. I just mean they said the same thing last year "best Black Friday ever". Everyone was going nuts that combined with pro launch I saw people predicting 2 million or more for November 2016 npd. Turns out it only did 1.1 million which was down from 1.5+ million for November 2015.

 

  I just notice being in a lot stocks that when a company has a bad piece of news or info dropping they make sure to throw out a bunch of good news to go with it. Obviously winning worldwide is much more important but loosing a holiday month in a consoles biggest market isn't good either.

if they had the same PR last year and won, what makes you so confident they have lost with practically the same PR this year? I also don't understand the point about Sony not winning one month in one country being a big deal. They aren't MS, this isn't the be all and end all.

And I take it that since PS4 'only' sold 1.1m last year with Pro release, Xbox One should be comfortably above it this year, and if it's not, it will be disappointing too, right? Especially as PS4 sales didn't decline so heavily leading up to the Pro release like Xbox One sales did before the X

I'm just pointing out that PS4 went from 1.5 million to 1.1 million despite having the best best Black Friday ever and pro launch. And this statement may be a spin of sorts however good.

 

and to me it's not about who wins and more about numbers. It's not about Xbox winning for it to be a successful month. It did 1 million last year. A slight decline because of it being it's 4th year and lacking games compared to last holiday can be expected for the s. The x will also eat into S sales a bit. So I expect 750k for s and 400k for X. Less and I will be disappointed win or loose. More and I'll be pleased again win or loose.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

Aura7541 said:
hudsoniscool said:

U.K. Black Friday 2016 and 2017 almost identical for Xbox/PS4 ratios.

in 2016 November npd PS4 beat Xbox by 100k despite the pro launch and that same great U.K. Black Friday ratio. So I don't think PS4 having a better Black Friday than Xbox in the U.K. Is directly related to PS4 winning npd. If we are going to correlate the day between both countries than we should also correlate the X's launch. Xbox sold 120k consoles that week, PS4 and switch did like 65k combined. In fact Xbox one x launch week was xb1's biggest week ever in the U.K. Since it's launch in 2013. Does that also translate to the US?

 

Also should  take into account the 2 insidersand npd analyst all have the month as a toss-up. The npd analyst said x should blow past 600k in US This year. That tells me he expects at least 400k X's sold in November npd, possibly 500k or more. 

Last year's UK BF ratio was around 1.5 to 1. This year's BF in the UK may have an even larger ratio.

I agree, the XB1X had a really good launch. However, does that translate into post-launch success? If we look at the XB1's numbers last UK BF and this UK BF, the numbers suggest the answer to be no. Last year, it sold 93K while this year it sold <100K. The lack of YOY increase with the possibility of the XB1 even being down YOY despite the XB1X fresh off the table isn't something to be ignored.

And there are a lot of other factors for us to account for such as the PS4 quickly blazing past the XB1X on Amazon's 2017 rankings before Thanksgiving even began, the $349 Pro deal, GameStop's inclusion of a $50 gift card with the $199 PS4, and the marketshare each retailer takes up in the video game market. InfoScout had the PS4 being the best selling product at Target in terms of revenue even though the XB1S had the significantly better deal at that retailer ($189 + $25 gift card vs $199). Last BF, the XB1 was the best selling product in terms of revenue at Target.

You do make some good points, but without hard numbers it's hard to know for sure. In the U.K. The s could have done 80k for s and 19.5 k for x. That would be solid for x but we don't have numbers to know for sure. Also Black Friday sales are going to heavily favor the cheap entry level slims more than the pro/X anyway. Im not saying that it isn't frontloaded, it may very well be. 500$ or the U.K. Equivalent can only be sustained for so long.

 

id also point out that while the xb1s was 189 with a gift card it was also the 500gb version vs the 1tb PS4 slim at 199. I would say IMO that each deal is about equivalent, neither being better as there's more value for that extra 500gb hd.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

X sold out.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

The PS4 SWBF2 bundle sold out