Take it from a Nintendo fan generall removed from the Triple A western space.

Game profits are not based 100% on just how many games it sold. Budgets and the amount of money they get per game is a significant factor.

For example games produced by a first or second party (see 90% of Nintendo's lineup) get more profit per game sold than Titanfall does. Also Japanese game developers tend to develop games with less expensive budgets than western companies, especially for Niche developers.

Like Persona 5 and Nioh.

A while back I had heard some talk that Xenoblade Chroncles X had profited even after just 200,000 sales in Japan. While I cannot track that source down, given that Xenoblade 2 is a thing, clearly it was worth it to continue the series even at less than a million sold.

Breath of the Wild needed 2 million sales to break even. More than usual I am sure, but I think we can agree similar game titles in the west like Assassins Creed and Far Cry would not do well with only that many sales.

Titanfall probably was unprofitable though.

Dark Souls is probably more towards AA cost than a AAA cost. The key difference is that many Japanese type games are built on engines they have used elsewhere for years. Yakuza for example is like a massive game in a small confined world, but as they have been building on the tech for years/mini games its a lot cheaper, otherwise Yakuza would have failed years ago due to poor western sales.

These teams are much smaller but can have a much better focussed product. Look at companies rushing to make open world games, the cost is significant and the investment in tech can really hurt a company (thats why they put so much crappy filler in them). Some companies have failed trying to jump on that bandwagon. I would rather have a more focussed game such as Yakuza than say AC Syndicate (or the french one where the name escapes me right now). AC had upto something like 9 teams from across the world working on it, the cost is staggering. Thats why when you get to the end of an AC game it takes 15 minutes to get through the credits...lol

Saying that Origins looks awesome, but sounds like its still got a lot of filler, but we'll see.

It's difficult to quantify profit on these things these days because the bottom has fallen out of the AA market quite a bit in recent years. But profit on a AA game would have been 1 - 1.2m sales about 5-6 years ago, then the issue of new gen which raised the cost. So I would say on average 1.5-2.0m is probably the base line... BUT... some games come along and are able to cut that trend and are able to do more with less (it helps that off the shelf gaming engines have gotten a lot better). Hellblade for example is apparently a very good game and graphically stunning and is able to make a profit with a lot lower sales. CDProject is able to make games cheaper as they are making games in poland and salaries are lower, Ubisoft were getting good tax breaks in Canada (and the UK is the same) where you can claim back say 20-25% in salaries or cost in tax rebates... lots of different variables in play.

Here you have a list for your reading pleasure. Much of the budgets for the games is marketing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_expensive_video_games_to_develop

This is not a new problem, it has been happening since the beginning and happens in every form of media.

All some developers can really do is, aim or try to connect their games with the audience, if they fail at that, then that is their failure, it is not something anything most developers are able to fix easily.

Nioh and Persona 5 sold poorly?

Leg me stop you there. Ratchet and Clank on PS4 had a budget of 35 million for both the movie and the game. Blockbustre titles cosy insane amounts of money due to time, marketing and much more marketing. I estimate budget if ni-oh at 15-20 million. And I am probably on the high side with that.

Define selling poorly? Disgaea 5 sold about less than a million (about half in fact) yet much like the other 4 games that sold about the same or less, it is still profitable enough to continue the franchise. It is all about budget along with critical appraise. Sales don't need to reach high numbers so long as it is proportional to the cost.

I imagine P5 was very profitable as it sold very well for a niche game.

Interesting, i wasnt aware of all that.

Yea i feel very sad that Titanfall probably didnt even break even, that game is so much better then COD yet kids cant seem to bring themselves to try something new so they continie supporting a lackluster not innovative game, COD has essentially become a yearly full price map pack.

Doom also is a godly game yet it barely broke 3 million, i hope to god that game was successful.

Here, have an imaginary upvote ☝