From where I am sitting that looks like the most likely outcome.

lol I have seen the same contra points before. Minecraft anyone?

Also the poll doesn't make much sense. You don't think 9m would be a huge hit (option 3)? After all that would still be less than PC (option 2).

Minecraft is super easy to pick up and play.

PUBG is not as easy to get (I have not played the game yet).

I think it will be a success but not like on pc.

Depends on when it releases. If it comes this year, it has pretty good chances of selling like crazy just because of the hype that is going on right now. If it comes next year or later the hype will be over and it won't sell too hot.

I can definitely sell a few million, but it won't be a 10 million seller.

 Few million? That's a LOT.  

I think it will sell 500k, maybe 1 mil at best.(addressing OP)

16 games sold over 3 million on XOne, 10 of them were shooters. I think PUBG has the potential to sell 2, maybe 3 million.

I think the game is too complex, the graphics look too poor compared to the polish expected on consoles, the performance will probably be bad compared to Gears 4 or Halo 5, I just don't see it being popular on Xbox - and honestly probably for a good reason. Even the Witcher 3 I played on PS4 and felt like it was boring as shit till I got it on PC. Just doesn't seem like a good game for the console crowd, doesn't seem like Ark or H1Z1 were even close to the phenomena they were on PC either(don't  quote me on that).

I can see this game being a 2million seller on the xbox. It's not going to be as huge as the PC, but still very popular